1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. With high crude oil prices, sugar production was squeezed, making sugar prices more likely to rise than fall. The overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal, and a bullish view was maintained [4]. - Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. Technically, it showed a trend of moving into a right - side market. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The sugar price advanced three steps and retreated two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract was about to shift to the 09 contract, and a short - long strategy was recommended on intraday pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. The high crude oil price squeezed sugar production, and the overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal. Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, the U.S. cola has changed its formula to use sucrose, and the crude oil price has risen [5]. - Bearish factors: The global sugar production has increased, and the import profit window has opened, increasing the import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - In the 25/26 season, as of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons' supply and demand are as follows: Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - The 25/26 season's supply and demand situation in the past three months' institutional forecasts showed different production, consumption, and surplus predictions from institutions such as the International Sugar Organization, StoneX, Czarnikow, Green Pool, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture [28]. - The sugar production, consumption, import, and other data from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented, including sugar - cane and beet - sugar production, import volume, consumption volume, and price ranges [30]. - The import cost of raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) at different dates is provided, including ICE raw sugar closing prices, exchange rates, and costs within and outside the quota [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the given content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From a technical perspective, Zhengzhou sugar has shown an upward trend after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward, indicating a potential right - side market trend [5][9]. - Downstream enterprises are starting to replenish their inventories after the festival, leading to a recovery in market demand. The rise in crude oil prices has increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the price of white sugar. The center of gravity of white sugar has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile outlook is maintained [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro estimates a sugar deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140,000 tons, lower than the 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a global sugar surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,420 yuan, and the basis is 11 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - **Market Performance**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Long - Short Factors** - **Bullish factors**: There may be a decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season. The tariff on syrup has increased. American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose. Crude oil prices have risen [7]. - **Bearish factors**: Global sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, while Datagro estimates a deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 season [4]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - producing area, yield per hectare, sugar production, import, consumption, export, and price data in China are presented. For example, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.7 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.7 million tons [33]. - **Cost and Profit of Imported Raw Sugar Processing**: The cost and profit of imported Brazilian raw sugar processing after 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro predicts a sugar shortage of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics predicts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,380, and the basis is 50 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Different Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool expects a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Sugar Planting and Yield Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - **Price Data**: International and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, the international sugar price in 2025/26 is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar market surplus of 122 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 163 million tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140 million tons, lower than the 470 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool anticipates a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, less than the 274 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [5]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 59 (for the 05 contract), with a premium over futures, showing a neutral situation. The industrial inventory as of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.99 million tons, also neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, tending to be bearish [5]. - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of emerging from the right - hand side of the market. Downstream enterprises began to replenish stocks after the festival, market demand started to recover, the crude oil price rose, and the price of sugar - made ethanol increased, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The center of sugar price has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile view is recommended [5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the fall of the foreign sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar - crushing seasons. For example, the ISO predicts a 122 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [5]. - In China, the sugar - cane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production, import, consumption, and export data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are presented. For instance, in 2025/26, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, import is 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and export is 180,000 tons [33]. - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing with a 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - No relevant content found

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink compared to the 25/26 season. Covrig Analytics predicts the surplus to be 1.4 million tons, down from 4.7 million tons in 25/26, and Green Pool forecasts 156,000 tons, lower than 2.74 million tons in 25/26 [4]. - The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, but the medium - long - term gap is decreasing. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5,300 yuan [9]. - The external market has reached a new low, while Zhengzhou sugar has shown relatively strong recent trends. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,300 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder totaled 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,360 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 106 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, indicating a bearish factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish factor [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The external market has reached a new low, while Zhengzhou sugar has shown relatively strong recent trends. With the Spring Festival approaching, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5,200 - 5,300 [5][9]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 25/26 season, ISO predicts 1.63 million tons, and Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons. For the 26/27 season, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 1.4 million tons, and Green Pool predicts 156,000 tons [4][9][31]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar production in China has been increasing, reaching 11.7 million tons in 2025/26. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons [33]. - **Price Data**: The international sugar price in 2025/26 is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: The cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided, such as on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sugar price showed a stable trend, mainly in a sideways consolidation phase. Before the Spring Festival, the market trend was unclear, with both long and short positions lacking the strength to launch an offensive, maintaining a balance[5]. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the short - term, the 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300[6][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar to around 14.5 cents per pound, and an opening of the import profit window, increasing import pressure[7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, the sugar price was stable and sideways. Before the Spring Festival, the market trend was unclear, with both long and short positions in balance. Covrig Analytics and Green Pool predicted a reduction in the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season compared to the 25/26 season. In December 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data were also provided[5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300[6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, StoneX predicted a surplus of 370 tons in the 25/26 season, ISO predicted a surplus of 163 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 15.6 tons in the 26/27 season[9][32]. - **Production and sales data**: In December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 470.18 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 157 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons[5]. - **Price data**: The international sugar price in the 2024/25 - 2025/26 seasons was in the range of 14.0 - 21.7 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price was in the range of 5500 - 6492 yuan per ton. The cost and profit of imported raw sugar processing after 50% tariff were also provided[33][37]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season [4][8] - As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 4.7018 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4] - The main position is bearish, with a net increase in short positions, and the main trend is unclear [4] - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05 faces significant pressure from the 60-day moving average above, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate around 5,200 [4][8] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, a drop in international sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window, and increasing import impact [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 2. Daily Tips - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 122 (for contract 05), with a premium over the futures, which is neutral [5] - As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [5] - The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is near the 20-day moving average, which is neutral [5] 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with StoneX forecasting 3.7 million tons, ISO 1.63 million tons, and Datagro 1.53 million tons [31] - In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas in China are expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in sugar yield per unit area. The estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to range from 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [32] - The cost of processed and taxed imported raw sugar (50% tariff) and corresponding profits from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided [36] 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a net increase in short positions, and the main trend is unclear [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season according to multiple institutions. The sugar price is under pressure. The main contract 05 of sugar futures is likely to be under pressure around 5300. Currently in the peak of new sugar listing and off - season of consumption with expected significant increase in imported sugar, the rebound strength is limited, and it will fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 in the short term [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season; DATAGRO lowers the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5380, and the basis for the 05 contract is 127, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, being bearish [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of the international sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 sugar season. StoneX forecasts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO forecasts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro forecasts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31] - **Domestic Sugar - Related Data in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (12 - month and 1 - month forecasts), the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the expected sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, while the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [33] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with different institutions having varying surplus estimates [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market's main contract 05 has had a strong short - term rebound, but the upward momentum has weakened, and the market may oscillate and decline for adjustment, with attention on whether there is support around 5200 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals** - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons [4][9]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9]. - The 2026/27 Brazilian sugar production may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose are positive factors; while the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus, low international sugar prices, and open import profit margins are negative factors [7][9]. - **Basis** - The Liuzhou spot price is 5400, and the basis for the 05 contract is 142, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory** - As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is a negative factor [6]. - **Market Chart** - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position** - The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, showing a bearish outlook [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast by Institutions** - StoneX predicts a 3.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth [31]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus, with global sugar production expected to increase by 3.15% and consumption by only 0.6% [31]. - Datagro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, with the global supply expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31]. - **Sugar Industry Data in China (2023/24 - 2025/26)** - The sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, and sugar production are expected to show certain trends. For example, the sugar - production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - Import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons [33]. - The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton in 2025/26 [33]. 5. Position Data No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - range. The 25/26 sugar season is anticipated to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, with prices under pressure. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - The domestic market maintains the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to rise, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03 (previous value 98.71), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.54 (previous value 5.52) [1][6]. - The WTI crude oil price is $56.93 per barrel, a 1.84% increase [1][6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a 2.15% increase. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar groups is 5,360 yuan per ton, an increase of 80 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,285 yuan per ton, an increase of 197 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased [1][2][14]. - As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 5,038 lots [15]. - As of December 16, in the CFTC's latest position report on New York raw sugar, long positions of funds decreased by 42 lots, short positions decreased by 11,030 lots, and net long positions increased by 10,988 lots to - 166,702 lots, a slight increase [1][15]. 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 592 million tons, a 1.92% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 39.9 million tons, a 1.13% increase; alcohol production was 29.53 billion liters, a 5.43% decrease; the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 51.12%, compared with 48.34% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of December 15, in the 25/26 sugar season, India produced 7.79 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [19]. - Thailand: As of December 24, in the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand produced 1 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons [20]. - China: CAOC predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production will be 11.7 million tons (previous forecast 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous forecast 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In November 2025, 440,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. In November 2025, the combined imports of syrup and premixed powder were 110,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 230,000 tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons [2][20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Trade in a low - range. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. New York raw sugar will trade in a low - range. Although sugar prices have fallen to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol has pulled down the valuation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Maintain the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to increase, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29].