重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年1月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.44万 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 白糖：维持弱基差预期 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 98.03(前值 98.71），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.54（前值 5.52），WTI 原油价格 56.93 美元/桶（+1.84%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 15.17 美分/磅（+2.15%）。截至 12 月 16 日，基金多 单减少 42 手，基金空单减少 11030 手，净多单同比增加 10988 手至-166702 手，净多单小幅增加。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 12 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 3990 万吨，同比增加 45 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 12 月 15 日，25/26 榨季印度食糖产量为 779 万吨(+172 万吨)。OCSB 数据 显示，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1008 万吨，同比增加 127 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 5360 元/吨，环比上周上涨 80 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5285 元/吨， 环比上周上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 日捷古报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) | 现价 | 其美 | 进口价差 | | 库存情况 | | SR2601 | 5303 | | 197 | | -115 国储库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a relatively resistant decline compared to the continuous decline of foreign sugar, but the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure and falls back near 5500, with a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, while ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1000 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5720, with a basis of 279 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position of the main force is still bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The short - term view is volatile and bearish, as the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is expected to end [4][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a supply gap of about 20 million tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics projects a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus and Green Pool predict surpluses of 40 million tons and 115 million tons respectively [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons, imports are estimated at 500 million tons, and consumption is projected to be 1590 million tons, with a balance change of 12 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is forecasted to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5086 yuan per ton, with significant import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [43]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. - In the short - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected oversupply in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 308, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 billion tons, imports are expected to be 5 billion tons, consumption is expected to be 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the 05 contract. Whether it can further rebound remains to be observed [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the fall of foreign sugar prices below 16 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated the global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season to be 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - Positive factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, and the medium - and long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on imported raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is beneficial to sugar in the long term [8]. - Negative factors: StoneX and Czarnikow predicted a global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool and USDA predicted an increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. SCA Brasil and Conab predicted a decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The 25/26 season's supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different predictions. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 20,000 tons; StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicted a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicted a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicted a supply surplus [32]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is predicted to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is predicted to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [34]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Imported raw sugar processing cost: In September 2025, the average ICE raw sugar price was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost after 50% tariff was 5,454 yuan per ton [39]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of sugar is weak, and the intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset. The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. This situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 380 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear but leaning towards bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom. With new sugar about to be listed in large quantities and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, and intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset [5][6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Production Forecast**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Green Pool expected a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 billion tons; USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons; SCA Brasil predicted a sugar production of 39.1 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season; Conab predicted a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast [4][9]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the import tariff of sugar syrup increased. From January 1, 2025, the tariff of imported sugar syrup and premixes was adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a shrinking gap in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is close to 6,000 yuan [9]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. The industrial inventory at the end of August was 1.16 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices showed minor fluctuations after the National Day holiday. The expected surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season has increased, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The price is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices after the National Day holiday showed minor fluctuations. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - Overnight, the price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The expectation of typhoon - affecting the sugar production in Guangxi has subsided, and the price has started to fluctuate weakly again. The SR2601 contract is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 1.15 million tons. The reasons for the surplus mainly include improved crop harvests in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand [35]. - **Domestic sugar market**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production in China is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.