交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（10.9-10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在16美分/磅附近震荡，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 日糖点报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 14 日 白糖：基差偏空 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： 国际市场方面，偏弱运行。行业方面，市场处于强现实弱预期格局，趋势上 24/25 榨季全球供应大幅 短缺偏多，25/26 榨季预计南北半球均恢复性增产累库偏空。节奏上虽然巴西中南部压榨进度同比仍偏 缓，但出口同比下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧，印度季风降水量高于 LPA 偏空，纽约原糖趋势偏弱震 荡。关注巴西生产和出口节奏、印度相关产业政策。 国内市场方面，基差偏空。24/25 榨季，国内市场维持连续增产、生产成本下降预期，糖浆和预拌粉 进口政策收紧，国内定价向上锚定配额外进口成本。25/26 榨季，市场预期广西出糖率下降，生产成本上 升。趋势上郑糖跟随原糖，节奏上围绕进口节奏展开交易，常规进口同比降幅收窄，糖浆、预拌粉进口仍 维持较高水平，现货偏空，基差偏空。 风险点：宏观环境，主产国汇率，印度产业政策，国内进口政策。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 97.62(前值 97.74） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply expectations, with the global supply gap in the 2025/26 season expected to be only 231,000 tons. The domestic sugar market faces import pressure as the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July reached a ten - year high for the same period. With the upcoming beet sugar harvest in September and a high expected new - season production, sugar prices are likely to be suppressed. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main contract position was 362,219 lots, up 5,943 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,782 sheets, down 420 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,523 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The in - quota import processing estimated prices for Brazilian and Thai sugar were 4,478 yuan/ton and 4,462 yuan/ton respectively, both down 40 yuan; the out - of - quota (50% tariff) import estimated prices were 5,689 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,990 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar was 8.76%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 6.82%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.4%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted a global supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season. The ICE sugar October contract fell 1.22% on Tuesday, and the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.59% on Wednesday. The production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, leading to a looser global supply expectation and weaker prices [2].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, consumption will grow by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons. Green Pool forecasts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons. Dataro expects a global supply surplus of 153,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Various institutions predict that the global sugar supply and demand may be in surplus in the next year, and the price of foreign sugar will fluctuate weakly. As the price of foreign sugar remains low, the import profit window opens, and subsequent imports will increase, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices. Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern in the medium - term, and the main 09 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 5600. Previous short positions can be partially liquidated for profit [4][5][9]. - Factors that are bullish for the market include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased tariffs on syrup. Factors that are bearish include the increase in global sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - Bullish factors: The basis of Liuzhou spot is 483 (09 contract), with a premium over futures; as of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons; the net long position of the main contract increased, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Bearish factors: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 yuan per ton. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is close to the out - of - quota import tariff for raw sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - In 2025, as of the end of May, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 85,400 tons, a decrease of 105,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - The USDA global sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [39]. - The rural department's data shows sugar - related information such as planting area, yield, import, consumption, and price from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [42]. - The Brueck domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [44]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar supply will be in surplus in the 25/26 period, with Dataro estimating a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Green Pool forecasting a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and StoneX projecting Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - The domestic sugar market shows mixed signals. The sales rate is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory situation and basis are favorable, but the global production increase and expected surplus are negative factors. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 09 generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts indicate a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period. The import tariff of syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20% since January 1, 2025. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1072 million tons, the cumulative sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220, and the basis for the 09 contract is 365, showing a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The global sugar supply - demand forecast for the next year may show a surplus, and the price of foreign sugar has fallen below 18 cents again. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Rural Ministry)**: Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April forecast) includes sugarcane and beet planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, and other information [38]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Bric)**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows initial inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [41]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been raised from 12% to 20%, approaching the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports [4]. - As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 344 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price; as of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - International sugar prices have fallen below 18 cents again. Domestic sugar sales in April were good, and spot prices were firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main SR2509 contract generally fluctuates between 5800 - 6000, and investors can consider buying at the lower end of this range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information is provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts show an increase in global sugar supply in the 25/26 season. China has adjusted import tariffs, and domestic production, sales, and import data in the 24/25 season show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6230, and the basis for the 09 contract is 344, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April 2025, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are long, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: International sugar prices have fallen, while domestic sugar sales are good and spot prices are firm. The domestic and foreign futures trends are synchronized, and the main SR2509 contract fluctuates in a certain range, suggesting buying at the lower end [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Dataro expects a global surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; StoneX anticipates Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 season, up from 40.2 million tons in the 24/25 season [4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand Data**: As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons; the sales ratio was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: USDA global and domestic (Brick and Rural Ministry) supply and demand balance sheets show data on sugar production, consumption, inventory, etc. over multiple years [34][36][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded. In April in China, the sugar sales rate was good and the spot price was firm. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is expected to rebound with support around 5,800. In the short - term, it will fluctuate upwards. A short - term long - position strategy on dips can be considered during trading [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons, and USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, close to the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 335 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 386,260 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, the net long position has increased, but the main trend is unclear [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand**: Czarnikow has raised the global sugar market surplus in the 24/25 season to 4.7 million tons. Green Pool predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.7 million tons in the 25/26 season, compared to a shortage of 3.7 million tons in the previous season. Thailand's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to reach a high level. India's cumulative sugar production as of April 15 was 25.425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18% [7]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's global sugar supply - demand balance sheet, in 2024, the initial inventory was 48.372 million tons, total sugar production was 186.619 million tons, total supply was 292.43 million tons, domestic consumption was 179.631 million tons, total consumption was 247.003 million tons, the ending inventory was 45.427 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 18.39%. According to the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet from Bricker, in 2024, the initial inventory was 12.2781 million tons, production was 11 million tons, imports were 4.5 million tons, total domestic supply was 27.7781 million tons, domestic consumption was 14.3 million tons, total domestic consumption was 14.42 million tons, the ending inventory was 13.3581 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 92.64% [34][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.