农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 郑棉上下空间受限，短期延续震荡运行 棉花观点 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得全球棉花期末库存较9月显著上升，并且由去 库再度转为累库。就美棉而言，因单产明显提高，USDA将美棉产量大幅上调，而出口仅上调4万吨，调整后美棉 销售压力显著提升。总体而言，11月USDA报告调整对盘面利空明显。当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力 仍在释放，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期外盘预计仍将承压运行。国内方面，国庆后随着采收进度加快，市 场对于新棉产量预期下滑，籽棉收购价也震荡走强，推动郑棉期价一度反弹至13600元/吨上方。不过盘面上涨后面 临较强的套保压力，且近期新疆产量预期又再度上升，而国内下游旺季特征并不明显，中美关税利好影响下订单 也仅有零星好转。当前进入纺织行业淡季，内地下游需求开始呈现偏弱态势，纺企对棉花原料随用随采，需求面 支撑不足。不过纺纱利润整体有所改善，且当前成品库存压力尚可，盘面下行空间预计受限。 策略 中性。郑棉短期上下空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货57 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌破15美分/磅，进口利润窗口打开，进口冲击 加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 白糖早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the 05 contract. Whether it can further rebound remains to be observed [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the fall of foreign sugar prices below 16 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated the global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season to be 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - Positive factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, and the medium - and long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on imported raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is beneficial to sugar in the long term [8]. - Negative factors: StoneX and Czarnikow predicted a global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool and USDA predicted an increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. SCA Brasil and Conab predicted a decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The 25/26 season's supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different predictions. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 20,000 tons; StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicted a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicted a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicted a supply surplus [32]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is predicted to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is predicted to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [34]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Imported raw sugar processing cost: In September 2025, the average ICE raw sugar price was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost after 50% tariff was 5,454 yuan per ton [39]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 白糖早报——2025年10月14日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货58 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices showed minor fluctuations after the National Day holiday. The expected surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season has increased, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The price is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices after the National Day holiday showed minor fluctuations. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - Overnight, the price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The expectation of typhoon - affecting the sugar production in Guangxi has subsided, and the price has started to fluctuate weakly again. The SR2601 contract is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 1.15 million tons. The reasons for the surplus mainly include improved crop harvests in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand [35]. - **Domestic sugar market**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production in China is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to operate weakly. The industry is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations. The global sugar supply was in a large shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, while the north and south hemispheres are expected to have a restorative increase in production and inventory in the 25/26 sugar season. The New York raw sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [3][30]. - The domestic sugar market has a bearish basis. In the 24/25 sugar season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increase and cost decrease, with tightened import policies for syrup and premixed powder. In the 25/26 sugar season, the sugar yield in Guangxi is expected to decline and the production cost to rise. Zhengzhou sugar futures will follow the trend of raw sugar, and the trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm [3][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.62 (previous value: 97.74), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.37 (previous value: 5.40) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $62.6 per barrel (+1.02%) [6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound (+1.48%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures is at 5,540 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from last week; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [14]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 11,599 lots [14]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 9, long positions of funds decreased by 13,118 lots, short positions increased by 31,561 lots, and net long positions decreased by 44,679 lots year - on - year to - 152,698 lots, a significant decrease in net long positions [14]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO expects a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 0.23 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a 4.7% decrease; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a 12% decrease; the cumulative sugar - using cane ratio was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 34.9 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [19]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [20]. - China: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in July 2025, 0.74 million tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season were 3.25 million tons [20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: It is expected to operate weakly. Pay attention to the production and export rhythm in Brazil and relevant industrial policies in India [3][30]. - Domestic market: The basis is bearish. The trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm. Pay attention to the import situation of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder [3][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply expectations, with the global supply gap in the 2025/26 season expected to be only 231,000 tons. The domestic sugar market faces import pressure as the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July reached a ten - year high for the same period. With the upcoming beet sugar harvest in September and a high expected new - season production, sugar prices are likely to be suppressed. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main contract position was 362,219 lots, up 5,943 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,782 sheets, down 420 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,523 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The in - quota import processing estimated prices for Brazilian and Thai sugar were 4,478 yuan/ton and 4,462 yuan/ton respectively, both down 40 yuan; the out - of - quota (50% tariff) import estimated prices were 5,689 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,990 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar was 8.76%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 6.82%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.4%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted a global supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season. The ICE sugar October contract fell 1.22% on Tuesday, and the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.59% on Wednesday. The production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, leading to a looser global supply expectation and weaker prices [2].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]