交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 6、预期：外盘创出新低，郑糖近期走势相对偏强。春节长假即将到来，节前规避风险，建议减持 仓位。短期05合约预计在5200-5300区间震荡。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差106（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 利多：26/27年度巴西糖产量可能下降。糖浆关税增加。 美国可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（2.2-2.6） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周白糖走势平稳，继续横盘整理为主。节前趋势不明朗，多空无力发起进攻，维持平衡。 Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2025年12月底， 25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率33.39%。2025年12 月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同比减 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。 2025年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率 33.39%。2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97 万吨，同比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：郑糖主力05上方60日均线压力较大，短期受压回落。周五夜盘外糖再度走低，进口糖低 价压制，国内白糖冲高动力不足。预计继续在5200上下震荡整理。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5370，基差12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season according to multiple institutions. The sugar price is under pressure. The main contract 05 of sugar futures is likely to be under pressure around 5300. Currently in the peak of new sugar listing and off - season of consumption with expected significant increase in imported sugar, the rebound strength is limited, and it will fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 in the short term [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season; DATAGRO lowers the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5380, and the basis for the 05 contract is 127, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, being bearish [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of the international sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 sugar season. StoneX forecasts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO forecasts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro forecasts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31] - **Domestic Sugar - Related Data in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (12 - month and 1 - month forecasts), the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the expected sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, while the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [33] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with different institutions having varying surplus estimates [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market's main contract 05 has had a strong short - term rebound, but the upward momentum has weakened, and the market may oscillate and decline for adjustment, with attention on whether there is support around 5200 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals** - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons [4][9]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9]. - The 2026/27 Brazilian sugar production may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose are positive factors; while the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus, low international sugar prices, and open import profit margins are negative factors [7][9]. - **Basis** - The Liuzhou spot price is 5400, and the basis for the 05 contract is 142, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory** - As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is a negative factor [6]. - **Market Chart** - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position** - The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, showing a bearish outlook [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast by Institutions** - StoneX predicts a 3.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth [31]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus, with global sugar production expected to increase by 3.15% and consumption by only 0.6% [31]. - Datagro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, with the global supply expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31]. - **Sugar Industry Data in China (2023/24 - 2025/26)** - The sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, and sugar production are expected to show certain trends. For example, the sugar - production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - Import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons [33]. - The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton in 2025/26 [33]. 5. Position Data No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - range. The 25/26 sugar season is anticipated to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, with prices under pressure. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - The domestic market maintains the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to rise, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03 (previous value 98.71), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.54 (previous value 5.52) [1][6]. - The WTI crude oil price is $56.93 per barrel, a 1.84% increase [1][6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a 2.15% increase. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar groups is 5,360 yuan per ton, an increase of 80 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,285 yuan per ton, an increase of 197 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased [1][2][14]. - As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 5,038 lots [15]. - As of December 16, in the CFTC's latest position report on New York raw sugar, long positions of funds decreased by 42 lots, short positions decreased by 11,030 lots, and net long positions increased by 10,988 lots to - 166,702 lots, a slight increase [1][15]. 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 592 million tons, a 1.92% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 39.9 million tons, a 1.13% increase; alcohol production was 29.53 billion liters, a 5.43% decrease; the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 51.12%, compared with 48.34% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of December 15, in the 25/26 sugar season, India produced 7.79 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [19]. - Thailand: As of December 24, in the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand produced 1 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons [20]. - China: CAOC predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production will be 11.7 million tons (previous forecast 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous forecast 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In November 2025, 440,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. In November 2025, the combined imports of syrup and premixed powder were 110,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 230,000 tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons [2][20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Trade in a low - range. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. New York raw sugar will trade in a low - range. Although sugar prices have fallen to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol has pulled down the valuation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Maintain the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to increase, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with different estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. The current season's production, sales, and import data in China also show a bearish trend. However, factors such as increased syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in US cola recipes are positive. The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has increased short - chasing risks. Wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. In China, by the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 267 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected**: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The cost of imported sugar with full - tariff is around 5200 yuan/ton. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and this round of decline is nearing the end. The risk of short - chasing at the current position increases, and wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [5][9]. 3. Matters to Watch Today No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance, with surpluses ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In China, the sugar production, sales, and import data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are also presented, showing a complex supply - demand situation [4][9]. - **Price and Cost**: The import cost of raw sugar processed with 50% tariff and the domestic and international sugar prices are provided, showing the impact of price changes on the sugar market [9][42]. - **Sugarcane and Beet Data**: Information on sugarcane and beet planting, harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is presented [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a relatively resistant decline compared to the continuous decline of foreign sugar, but the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure and falls back near 5500, with a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, while ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1000 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5720, with a basis of 279 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position of the main force is still bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The short - term view is volatile and bearish, as the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is expected to end [4][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a supply gap of about 20 million tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics projects a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus and Green Pool predict surpluses of 40 million tons and 115 million tons respectively [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons, imports are estimated at 500 million tons, and consumption is projected to be 1590 million tons, with a balance change of 12 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is forecasted to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5086 yuan per ton, with significant import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [43]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.