Report Overview - The report focuses on the soda ash market, analyzing its fundamentals, price trends, and influencing factors to provide insights for investment decisions [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a supply-demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on the day was 1376 yuan/ton, the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -31 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.88%, 1.13%, and -8.82% respectively compared to the previous value [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] - The profit of the heavy soda ash combined alkali method in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia-alkali method in North China was -62.50 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.44%, showing a stable recovery [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, a decline from the historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual production of 60 tons in 2025 [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [24] - The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline at 75.85%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production increased to 9.1 tons, and production showed signs of stabilization [30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which was at a historically high level [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report presented the supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply-demand differences over the years [34] Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level; the cold repair of float glass downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak; the escalation of Sino-US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro pessimistic sentiment [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has continued to decline, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply-demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. The supply of soda ash has decreased from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash in the day session was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; the main basis was - 41 yuan, up 20.59% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - In the downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7113 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 864,400 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak. The full - scale escalation of the Sino - US tariff conflict may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].