Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1306 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 101 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.23%, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.88% [6]. 2. Influencing Factors **Likely Positive Factors** - As the peak summer maintenance period approaches, production will decline [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Fundamental Analysis **Supply** - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 41 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with planned new production capacities of 640 tons, 180 tons, and 750 tons respectively, and the actual new production capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [21]. **Demand** - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [33]. **Inventory** - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 191.08 tons, an increase of 0.90% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash remains at a high level with few alkali plant overhauls; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -104 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1358 yuan/ton | 1230 yuan/ton | - 128 yuan | | Current Value | 1309 yuan/ton | 1205 yuan/ton | - 104 yuan | | Change Rate | - 3.61% | - 2.03% | - 18.75% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still planned significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1300元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-11元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 每日观点 利空： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位下滑，终端需求改善有限，库存处于同期高位，行业供需错配格局尚未有效 改善。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给回升至高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求 一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1215元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1176元/吨，基差为39元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存172.67万吨，较前一周增加2.40%，库存在5年均值 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 利空： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1300元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1254元/吨，基差为46元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存167.68万吨，较前一周减少2.06%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 影响因素总结 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美关税谈判取得进展。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位下滑，终端需求改善有限，库存虽然持续下滑但仍处于同期高位，行业供需 错配格局尚未有效改善。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1340元/ ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美关税谈判取得进展。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位下滑，终端需求改善有限，库存虽然持续下滑但仍处于同期高位，行业供需 错配格局尚未有效改善。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1345元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1345元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1376元/吨，基差为-31元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.10万吨，较前一周减少1.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. The supply of soda ash has decreased from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash in the day session was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; the main basis was - 41 yuan, up 20.59% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,299 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - In the downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7113 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 864,400 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak. The full - scale escalation of the Sino - US tariff conflict may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].