1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is bearish on the soda ash industry. The macro - negative factors combined with the weak fundamentals of soda ash are expected to lead to a short - term weak and fluctuating trend. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, with the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry not effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.04% to 1234 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 3.90% to - 74 yuan [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from the historical low [14]. -开工 rate and output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 88.41%, and the weekly output was 77.08 tons, with heavy soda ash at 42.87 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash capacity, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (100 tons actually put into production) [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - Sales ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.01% stabilizing; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: During the peak maintenance period this year, soda ash production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1311 yuan/ton to 1296 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1205 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.15% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output is 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with planned new capacities of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is 75.49% and stable [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [34]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 186.75 tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1306 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 101 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.23%, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.88% [6]. 2. Influencing Factors **Likely Positive Factors** - As the peak summer maintenance period approaches, production will decline [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Fundamental Analysis **Supply** - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 41 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with planned new production capacities of 640 tons, 180 tons, and 750 tons respectively, and the actual new production capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [21]. **Demand** - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [33]. **Inventory** - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 191.08 tons, an increase of 0.90% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash remains at a high level with few alkali plant overhauls; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -104 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1358 yuan/ton | 1230 yuan/ton | - 128 yuan | | Current Value | 1309 yuan/ton | 1205 yuan/ton | - 104 yuan | | Change Rate | - 3.61% | - 2.03% | - 18.75% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still planned significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1300元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-11元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 每日观点 利空： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has rebounded to a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,176 yuan/ton, the basis is 39 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 2.40% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Leveraging factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Inhibiting factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | | Current value | 1,176 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 39 yuan/ton | | Change rate | 0.51% | 0.00% | - 13.33% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, of which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 405,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 1 million tons) [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [23]. - **Float glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [26]. - **Photovoltaic glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [29]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash is 914,100 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has changed. In some years, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. The production capacity, output, import, export, and other indicators have also changed accordingly [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from a high level, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1254 yuan/ton, and the basis is 46 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1254 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 46 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.08% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has decreased by 2.13% [5]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the joint - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 36 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production - launching of 60 tons [22]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 54.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 84.40 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash are presented in the table, showing different trends in different years [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from the high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has declined but remains at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,330 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 171.20 million tons, an increase of 0.63% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is declining from the high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the previous value. The main basis is 10 yuan [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - alkali process in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali process in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - **Capacity and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 74.07 million tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 40.79 million tons, and the output has declined from the historical high [16][18]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there are continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The planned new production capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025 (with 60 million tons actually put into production) [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash is 55.07% [21]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the production has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.33 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level but declining, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is declining but still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1345 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1345 yuan/ton, and the basis is 0 yuan. The futures are at par with the spot. It is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1701300 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash, and progress has been made in Sino - US tariff negotiations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - alkali downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1291 | 1345 | 4.18% | | Low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1325 | 1345 | 1.51% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | 34 | 0 | - 100.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - alkali in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - alkali in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - **Weekly Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded [16]. - **Weekly Output**: The weekly output of soda ash is 740700 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 407900 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 55.07% [21][24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the output has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total domestic inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1701300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 872200 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-4-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：纯碱检修陆续复产，开工率回升，供给抬升；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量走稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1345元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1376元/吨，基差为-31元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存169.10万吨，较前一周减少1.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能 ...