Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is a bearish consolidation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and caution is needed when chasing short positions [1]. - The decline of rapeseed meal has slowed down in the short - term, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and the US Department of Agriculture report [1]. - Palm oil is in a weak operation, lacking bullish drivers, and the center of oscillation is moving downward [8]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the supply side is bearish, the market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations [1]. - Jujube is in a slightly bullish oscillation. The high inventory of old jujubes is a pressure, but the pre - festival stocking has supported the market [1]. - Live pigs are under pressure to operate. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of price suppression in the later period [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The positive impact of China - US trade tariff events has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the continuous rainfall in May in the Great Lakes region of the US [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. As of May 2, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills have increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased. The supply of soybean meal is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the spot and basis have declined [3]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3350 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a demand for consolidation or rebound [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May, but the import from May to July is expected to decline significantly [7]. - **Market Advantage**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious [7]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2565 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. It rebounded slightly yesterday, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 3.23% week - on - week and 22.49% year - on - year. India's palm oil imports in April are expected to decline by 24% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Malaysia's palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [8]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil continued its short - term decline and closed slightly lower, but there is a demand for short - term consolidation near the previous low [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and some cotton farmers are considering expanding planting. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's cotton intended planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton planting in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the demand is in the off - season [10]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (CF2509) closed at 12900 yuan/ton, up 0.90%. The market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations, and a short - term rebound is expected [1][10]. Jujube - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [13]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of jujube (CJ2509) closed at 9050 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is emerging, supporting the short - term market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Industry Data**: The national sample enterprise pig inventory increased by 0.36% month - on - month, the slaughter volume increased by 16.82%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% [14]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline [1][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Situation**: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - **Market Situation**: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - **Market Situation**: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].