【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 油粕日报：延续震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 豆粕：CONAB：截至 2026 年 1 月 10 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 0.6%，高于一周前的 0.1%，低于去年同期的 0.3%，也低于五年同期均值 1.0%。 USDA：1 月 13 日，美国私人出口商报告向中国销售 16.8 万吨大豆，向墨西哥销 售 15.24 万吨大豆，均在 2025/26 年度交货。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，昨天进口大豆抛储全部溢价成交，说 明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而 远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有 进一步下行可能。 油脂：印尼高级官员：印尼今年是否推出 B50 生物柴油强制掺混政策，将取 决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。印尼收取棕榈油出口费，用来补贴生物柴油计 划。补贴金额取决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。 周五，加拿大总理将在北京与中国领导人会面，这是八年多来加拿大总理首 次访问中国。知情人士透露，在卡尼访华期间，如果加拿大放宽对中国制造电动 汽车的关税，中国将做 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：目前美豆出口疲软、巴西丰产压力仍存，市场聚焦下周一美农报告指引方向。国内豆粕库存 113.5 万吨，周比降 3.52%，节后贸易商与饲料厂补货带动成交放量。当前美豆走高与巴西升贴水小幅上移， 抵消了人民币升值带来的成本压力，进口成本支撑有所增强，但上方阻力仍存。在市场压力尚未缓解前， 豆类期价反弹空间受限，反弹持续性较差，短期面临反复，整体低位震荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 | 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 | 月美农报告公布临 | | | | | | 豆粕 | 短线整理 | 近，报告前预计仍有震荡，豆粕追空看空需谨慎。关注美豆出口数据能否改善、1 | ★ | | | | | 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | | | | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。中加关系改善前，可关 | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 注逢低适量短多机会。关注 | 1 | 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进 | | | ★ | 展。 | | | | | | | 马棕榈油 | 12 | 月出口数据表现不佳，但产量进入减产，12 | 月库存预计仍会累库，但 | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 考虑委内瑞拉事件对原油价格的提振，预计今日棕榈油下跌有限。阶段操作上关注 | | ★ | 低位企稳看多机会。 | | | | | | | 国 ...

美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the USDA report for November shows a slight downward adjustment in both the yield and production of U.S. soybeans for 2025, with expected yield at 53 bushels per acre and total production at 4.253 billion bushels [1] - The adjustments in the USDA report align with prior market expectations, but the extent of the adjustments was less than anticipated, leading to a negative market sentiment [1] - Following the report's release, U.S. soybean futures prices experienced a significant decline, which is expected to weaken domestic cost support for soybean meal in China [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need to monitor China's further procurement activities of U.S. soybeans in light of the price adjustments and market reactions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of the latest USDA report on the soybean market is neutral, with short - term CBOT soybean futures expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Domestic soybean meal futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price of soybean meal will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. [18][19] - For the pig market, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in pig futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillating. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed flat, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes up 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. DCE live pig main contract 2509 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs rose by 0.19 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.22%. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be rainfall in some parts of the US Midwest in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Warm and humid weather can benefit crop growth in many areas, but some regions may not want more rain, while drier areas may welcome precipitation. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous estimates, and the soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than expected. [5] - On July 1, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased by 14 yuan. [5] - On June 30, the national main oil mills' soybean meal transactions decreased, and the overall oil mill startup rate decreased by 1.28%. [5] - As of the week ending June 27, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased by 8% week - on - week. [6] - The US soybean's excellent - good rate is 66%, lower than expected; the emergence rate is 94%; the flowering rate is 17%; and the pod - setting rate is 3%. [6] - As of June 27, 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. [6] - It is estimated that the national main oil mills' soybean crushing volume in June and July will reach about 10 million tons. [7] - In the 26th week of 2025, the national main oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories increased, unexecuted contracts decreased, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased slightly. [7] - Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have been stable with a downward trend. It is expected that pig prices will remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year. [8] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. [8] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [11][12][14][17] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the USDA report has a neutral impact. CBOT soybean futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Domestic soybean meal futures are in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price will remain at the bottom in the short term. [18][19] - For live pigs, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is oscillating. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to gradually increase, but the short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and caution is needed when shorting further [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. However, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started, and the oscillation center of palm oil has moved down [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations. However, the short - term upward momentum is lacking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillation with a strong bias. The old - crop high - inventory pressure exists, but the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, which supports the short - term disk [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the subsequent continuous rainfall [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. The soybean crushing has increased slightly month - on - month, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is in a state of destocking. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons, and the supply is gradually increasing [3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, soybean meal continued to trade in a narrow range at a low level. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, but caution is needed when shorting further. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture report and the progress of China - US trade [1][3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,899 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,312.29 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased month - on - month. As of May 7, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.88 tons compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply Outlook**: The import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [1][7]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, rapeseed meal continued to trade in a narrow range and rebounded slightly, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the export situation of Canadian rapeseed and the US Department of Agriculture report next week [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,551 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,567.37 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [4]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 22.49% compared with the same period last year. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being [9]. - **International Situation**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in April. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory cycle has started [1][9]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil traded in a narrow range overnight, and short - term weak consolidation and rebound should be treated with caution [1][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7,886 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,633 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the new cotton planting prospect is optimistic. StoneX expects the cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season to increase by 0.4% year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is estimated to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the cotton import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, and the textile enterprises' orders and operating rates are falling [12]. - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 increased by 0.43% during the day. The market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations, but the short - term upward momentum is lacking [10][11]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [10]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase of 175 tons compared with the previous week, and still higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken [14]. - **Market Performance**: The red date main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.78% during the day. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, and the short - term disk support is expected to strengthen [13][14]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,010 yuan/ton. The price of various grades of red dates in different regions remained stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: In April, the slaughter progress of farms was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of newborn piglets from January to March in the new year has increased month - on - month, indicating that the slaughter volume in the third quarter will face growth pressure [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to be slightly lower in March but still above the normal level, which may slightly benefit the supply at the beginning of the next year [16]. - **Market Performance**: The live pig main contract Lh2509 increased by 0.07% during the day. The short - term supply pressure is relatively small, but the long - term supply is expected to be excessive. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [15][17]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.13% to 14,920 yuan/ton on average [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].