1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Near - term soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and may decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - Due to the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy, palm oil prices have slightly declined, but the domestic import cost is unlikely to drop significantly. The rapeseed oil market is waiting for the meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term for oils [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 10, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean was 0.6%, higher than 0.1% a week ago, lower than 0.3% of the same period last year, and lower than the five - year average of 1.0% [1]. - On January 13, US private exporters reported selling 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [1]. - The market is unclear about the future reserve release schedule. Yesterday, all imported soybean reserve releases were sold at a premium, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand [1]. Oils - Indonesia's decision on the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy this year depends on the price difference between crude oil and palm oil. Indonesia charges palm oil export fees to subsidize the biodiesel program, and the subsidy amount depends on the price difference [1]. - If Canada relaxes tariffs on Chinese - made electric vehicles during the prime minister's visit to China, China will relax some restrictions on Canadian rapeseed products. The rapeseed oil market is waiting for the result of the meeting on Friday [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures shows a pattern of low - level fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the rebound space of bean futures prices is limited [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: US soybean exports are weak and there is still a pressure of a bumper harvest in Brazil. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture report. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 113.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%. After the festival, replenishment by traders and feed mills has increased trading volume. The increase in US soybean prices and a slight rise in Brazilian premiums have offset the cost pressure caused by the appreciation of the RMB, strengthening the support of import costs, but there is still resistance above [5]. 2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: BMD palm oil has fluctuated and declined. The market expects the MPOB report to show that the inventory at the end of December will reach a 7 - year high, and India's palm oil imports in December dropped to an 8 - month low. However, poor production at the beginning of December provides support at low levels. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China at the end of the first week is 2.2465 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0104 billion tons. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories have been decreasing, while palm oil inventory has continued to accumulate, highlighting the pressure on palm oil futures and spot prices [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is consolidation. Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on US soybean export data, the January USDA report, and South American weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal shows short - term consolidation. Before the improvement of China - Canada relations, pay attention to short - term long opportunities at low prices. Focus on the January USDA report, Australian seed crushing and import policies, and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. Consider the impact of the Venezuela event on crude oil prices. Pay attention to long opportunities when it stabilizes at a low level [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. The domestic supply environment has improved slightly, but still pay attention to US soybean export data and the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities when it stabilizes at a low level. Focus on Australian seed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to be volatile and strong. Pay attention to the callback and long - entry opportunities. Be vigilant about the suppression of the disk by the narrowing of spinning mill profits and the inflow of external supplies [1][12]. - Red dates are expected to have a short - term rebound. In the context of high inventory and loose supply - demand, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - term, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities [1][14]. - Hogs are expected to have a short - term rebound. The 01 contract has limited room for further decline; the 03 contract can consider short - selling after the rebound; the 09 and 11 contracts are recommended to wait and see [1][15]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825100 tons, a decrease of 40500 tons from last week and an increase of 50420 tons compared with last year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654440 tons, a decrease of 67920 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%, and an increase of 64440 tons compared with last year, an increase of 10.92%. The soybean meal inventory was 116760 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%, and an increase of 46440 tons compared with last year, an increase of 66.04%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and an increase of 1.01 days compared with the same period last year [3]. - The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2749 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan or 1.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3172.29 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 26, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan or 1.58% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2526.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.42 yuan or 1.11% from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734100 tons, an increase of 34100 tons from last week, an increase of 4.87%, and an increase of 205700 tons compared with 528400 tons last year, an increase of 38.93% [8]. - The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.85% from the previous day. The national average price was 8653 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day [7]. Cotton - Internationally, the US has inspected 2.4251 million tons of new cotton, with an inspection progress of about 78%. India's new cotton daily listing volume is 43000 tons, and the CCI has purchased 680000 tons of new cotton in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, and the 2026 new cotton planting progress is 25.1% [10]. - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 6.5 million tons, and the total national output is expected to be 7.68 million tons. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast. In November, the imported cotton resource was 300000 tons. The national commercial inventory rose to 5.165 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory rose to 4.7014 million tons [11]. - The futures price of the main contract of cotton (CF2605) was 14585 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day [9]. Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in the production area is over, and the market supply has increased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 15649 tons, a decrease of 249 tons from the previous week and 4308 tons higher than the same period [14]. - The futures price of the main contract of red dates (CJ2605) was 8965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.61% from the previous day [13]. Hogs - In the short - term, the January slaughter plan of sample enterprises has decreased, and the supply pressure in January has weakened, but there is still pressure in February. The entry of second - fattening hogs has increased, which has postponed the supply - side pressure to January and February [15]. - The futures price of the main contract of hogs (lh2603) was 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan or 2.66% from the previous day [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being favored due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, and the soybean supply is sufficient. Favorable factors from the US Department of Agriculture are driving up the price of US soybeans. The oil mill operating rate is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will maintain a volatile trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The soybean No. 1 2601 contract rebounded again. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the premium on the futures market increased. The soybean meal 01 contract maintained a volatile trend. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,990 yuan/ton to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the premium on the futures market narrowed [4]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Production and Sales - Domestic soybean production decreased slightly, with the total output slightly reduced by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. The sales progress of domestic soybeans varied, with slower progress in North China and faster progress in the Northeast. As of November 14, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong was 85%, 85%, 86%, and 92% respectively. The quality of new soybeans was differentiated, and high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang were in high demand [4]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Import and Supply - In October, domestic soybean imports were 9.48 million tons, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient. As of November 14, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.82 million tons, a decrease from the previous month; the port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, also a decrease from the previous month but still at a high level [4]. 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report reduced the US soybean yield per unit and total output, as well as the ending inventory; the South American output remained unchanged; the global ending inventory was further reduced. Although the data in the US Department of Agriculture report was bullish, the futures market first fell and then rose. Coupled with the China - US trade agreement, US soybeans are expected to continue to rise [5]. 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased again. The profit of oil mill crushing decreased due to the high cost of Brazilian soybeans. As of November 14, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.15%, an increase from the previous month; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, an increase from the previous month; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.641 million tons, an increase from the previous month; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 992,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease from the previous month. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.23 days, an increase from the previous month [5][6]. 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price was low, and the breeding was in continuous loss. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 205.64 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity was slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the reproductive sow inventory in large - scale farms was delayed, and the inventory increased slightly in October; the number of piglets born increased again, but the sales volume continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price fell again, the breeding continued to be in loss, the number of culled poultry increased, the inventory decreased slightly in October, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed output was 29.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; the feed demand was still strong [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the USDA report for November shows a slight downward adjustment in both the yield and production of U.S. soybeans for 2025, with expected yield at 53 bushels per acre and total production at 4.253 billion bushels [1] - The adjustments in the USDA report align with prior market expectations, but the extent of the adjustments was less than anticipated, leading to a negative market sentiment [1] - Following the report's release, U.S. soybean futures prices experienced a significant decline, which is expected to weaken domestic cost support for soybean meal in China [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need to monitor China's further procurement activities of U.S. soybeans in light of the price adjustments and market reactions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of the latest USDA report on the soybean market is neutral, with short - term CBOT soybean futures expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Domestic soybean meal futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price of soybean meal will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. [18][19] - For the pig market, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in pig futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillating. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed flat, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes up 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. DCE live pig main contract 2509 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs rose by 0.19 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.22%. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be rainfall in some parts of the US Midwest in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Warm and humid weather can benefit crop growth in many areas, but some regions may not want more rain, while drier areas may welcome precipitation. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous estimates, and the soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than expected. [5] - On July 1, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased by 14 yuan. [5] - On June 30, the national main oil mills' soybean meal transactions decreased, and the overall oil mill startup rate decreased by 1.28%. [5] - As of the week ending June 27, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased by 8% week - on - week. [6] - The US soybean's excellent - good rate is 66%, lower than expected; the emergence rate is 94%; the flowering rate is 17%; and the pod - setting rate is 3%. [6] - As of June 27, 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. [6] - It is estimated that the national main oil mills' soybean crushing volume in June and July will reach about 10 million tons. [7] - In the 26th week of 2025, the national main oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories increased, unexecuted contracts decreased, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased slightly. [7] - Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have been stable with a downward trend. It is expected that pig prices will remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year. [8] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. [8] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [11][12][14][17] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the USDA report has a neutral impact. CBOT soybean futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Domestic soybean meal futures are in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price will remain at the bottom in the short term. [18][19] - For live pigs, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is oscillating. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to gradually increase, but the short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and caution is needed when shorting further [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. However, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started, and the oscillation center of palm oil has moved down [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations. However, the short - term upward momentum is lacking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillation with a strong bias. The old - crop high - inventory pressure exists, but the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, which supports the short - term disk [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the subsequent continuous rainfall [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. The soybean crushing has increased slightly month - on - month, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is in a state of destocking. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons, and the supply is gradually increasing [3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, soybean meal continued to trade in a narrow range at a low level. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, but caution is needed when shorting further. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture report and the progress of China - US trade [1][3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,899 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,312.29 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased month - on - month. As of May 7, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.88 tons compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply Outlook**: The import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [1][7]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, rapeseed meal continued to trade in a narrow range and rebounded slightly, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the export situation of Canadian rapeseed and the US Department of Agriculture report next week [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,551 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,567.37 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [4]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 22.49% compared with the same period last year. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being [9]. - **International Situation**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in April. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory cycle has started [1][9]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil traded in a narrow range overnight, and short - term weak consolidation and rebound should be treated with caution [1][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7,886 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,633 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the new cotton planting prospect is optimistic. StoneX expects the cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season to increase by 0.4% year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is estimated to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the cotton import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, and the textile enterprises' orders and operating rates are falling [12]. - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 increased by 0.43% during the day. The market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations, but the short - term upward momentum is lacking [10][11]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [10]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase of 175 tons compared with the previous week, and still higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken [14]. - **Market Performance**: The red date main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.78% during the day. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, and the short - term disk support is expected to strengthen [13][14]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,010 yuan/ton. The price of various grades of red dates in different regions remained stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: In April, the slaughter progress of farms was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of newborn piglets from January to March in the new year has increased month - on - month, indicating that the slaughter volume in the third quarter will face growth pressure [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to be slightly lower in March but still above the normal level, which may slightly benefit the supply at the beginning of the next year [16]. - **Market Performance**: The live pig main contract Lh2509 increased by 0.07% during the day. The short - term supply pressure is relatively small, but the long - term supply is expected to be excessive. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [15][17]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.13% to 14,920 yuan/ton on average [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].