Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of the latest USDA report on the soybean market is neutral, with short - term CBOT soybean futures expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Domestic soybean meal futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price of soybean meal will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. [18][19] - For the pig market, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in pig futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillating. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed flat, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes up 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. DCE live pig main contract 2509 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs rose by 0.19 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.22%. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be rainfall in some parts of the US Midwest in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Warm and humid weather can benefit crop growth in many areas, but some regions may not want more rain, while drier areas may welcome precipitation. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous estimates, and the soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than expected. [5] - On July 1, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased by 14 yuan. [5] - On June 30, the national main oil mills' soybean meal transactions decreased, and the overall oil mill startup rate decreased by 1.28%. [5] - As of the week ending June 27, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased by 8% week - on - week. [6] - The US soybean's excellent - good rate is 66%, lower than expected; the emergence rate is 94%; the flowering rate is 17%; and the pod - setting rate is 3%. [6] - As of June 27, 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. [6] - It is estimated that the national main oil mills' soybean crushing volume in June and July will reach about 10 million tons. [7] - In the 26th week of 2025, the national main oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories increased, unexecuted contracts decreased, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased slightly. [7] - Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have been stable with a downward trend. It is expected that pig prices will remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year. [8] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. [8] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [11][12][14][17] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the USDA report has a neutral impact. CBOT soybean futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Domestic soybean meal futures are in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price will remain at the bottom in the short term. [18][19] - For live pigs, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is oscillating. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to gradually increase, but the short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and caution is needed when shorting further [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. However, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started, and the oscillation center of palm oil has moved down [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations. However, the short - term upward momentum is lacking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillation with a strong bias. The old - crop high - inventory pressure exists, but the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, which supports the short - term disk [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the subsequent continuous rainfall [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. The soybean crushing has increased slightly month - on - month, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is in a state of destocking. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons, and the supply is gradually increasing [3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, soybean meal continued to trade in a narrow range at a low level. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, but caution is needed when shorting further. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture report and the progress of China - US trade [1][3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,899 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,312.29 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased month - on - month. As of May 7, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.88 tons compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply Outlook**: The import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [1][7]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, rapeseed meal continued to trade in a narrow range and rebounded slightly, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the export situation of Canadian rapeseed and the US Department of Agriculture report next week [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,551 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,567.37 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [4]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 22.49% compared with the same period last year. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being [9]. - **International Situation**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in April. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory cycle has started [1][9]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil traded in a narrow range overnight, and short - term weak consolidation and rebound should be treated with caution [1][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7,886 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,633 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the new cotton planting prospect is optimistic. StoneX expects the cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season to increase by 0.4% year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is estimated to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the cotton import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, and the textile enterprises' orders and operating rates are falling [12]. - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 increased by 0.43% during the day. The market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations, but the short - term upward momentum is lacking [10][11]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [10]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase of 175 tons compared with the previous week, and still higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken [14]. - **Market Performance**: The red date main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.78% during the day. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, and the short - term disk support is expected to strengthen [13][14]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,010 yuan/ton. The price of various grades of red dates in different regions remained stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: In April, the slaughter progress of farms was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of newborn piglets from January to March in the new year has increased month - on - month, indicating that the slaughter volume in the third quarter will face growth pressure [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to be slightly lower in March but still above the normal level, which may slightly benefit the supply at the beginning of the next year [16]. - **Market Performance**: The live pig main contract Lh2509 increased by 0.07% during the day. The short - term supply pressure is relatively small, but the long - term supply is expected to be excessive. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [15][17]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.13% to 14,920 yuan/ton on average [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is a bearish consolidation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and caution is needed when chasing short positions [1]. - The decline of rapeseed meal has slowed down in the short - term, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and the US Department of Agriculture report [1]. - Palm oil is in a weak operation, lacking bullish drivers, and the center of oscillation is moving downward [8]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the supply side is bearish, the market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations [1]. - Jujube is in a slightly bullish oscillation. The high inventory of old jujubes is a pressure, but the pre - festival stocking has supported the market [1]. - Live pigs are under pressure to operate. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of price suppression in the later period [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The positive impact of China - US trade tariff events has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the continuous rainfall in May in the Great Lakes region of the US [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. As of May 2, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills have increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased. The supply of soybean meal is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the spot and basis have declined [3]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3350 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a demand for consolidation or rebound [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May, but the import from May to July is expected to decline significantly [7]. - **Market Advantage**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious [7]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2565 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. It rebounded slightly yesterday, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 3.23% week - on - week and 22.49% year - on - year. India's palm oil imports in April are expected to decline by 24% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Malaysia's palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [8]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil continued its short - term decline and closed slightly lower, but there is a demand for short - term consolidation near the previous low [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and some cotton farmers are considering expanding planting. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's cotton intended planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton planting in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the demand is in the off - season [10]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (CF2509) closed at 12900 yuan/ton, up 0.90%. The market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations, and a short - term rebound is expected [1][10]. Jujube - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [13]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of jujube (CJ2509) closed at 9050 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is emerging, supporting the short - term market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Industry Data**: The national sample enterprise pig inventory increased by 0.36% month - on - month, the slaughter volume increased by 16.82%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% [14]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline [1][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Situation**: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - **Market Situation**: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - **Market Situation**: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].