1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to gradually increase, but the short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and caution is needed when shorting further [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. However, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started, and the oscillation center of palm oil has moved down [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations. However, the short - term upward momentum is lacking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillation with a strong bias. The old - crop high - inventory pressure exists, but the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, which supports the short - term disk [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the subsequent continuous rainfall [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. The soybean crushing has increased slightly month - on - month, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is in a state of destocking. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons, and the supply is gradually increasing [3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, soybean meal continued to trade in a narrow range at a low level. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, but caution is needed when shorting further. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture report and the progress of China - US trade [1][3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,899 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,312.29 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased month - on - month. As of May 7, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.88 tons compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply Outlook**: The import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [1][7]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, rapeseed meal continued to trade in a narrow range and rebounded slightly, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the export situation of Canadian rapeseed and the US Department of Agriculture report next week [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,551 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,567.37 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [4]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 22.49% compared with the same period last year. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being [9]. - **International Situation**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in April. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory cycle has started [1][9]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil traded in a narrow range overnight, and short - term weak consolidation and rebound should be treated with caution [1][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7,886 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,633 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the new cotton planting prospect is optimistic. StoneX expects the cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season to increase by 0.4% year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is estimated to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the cotton import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, and the textile enterprises' orders and operating rates are falling [12]. - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 increased by 0.43% during the day. The market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations, but the short - term upward momentum is lacking [10][11]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [10]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase of 175 tons compared with the previous week, and still higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken [14]. - **Market Performance**: The red date main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.78% during the day. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, and the short - term disk support is expected to strengthen [13][14]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,010 yuan/ton. The price of various grades of red dates in different regions remained stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: In April, the slaughter progress of farms was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of newborn piglets from January to March in the new year has increased month - on - month, indicating that the slaughter volume in the third quarter will face growth pressure [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to be slightly lower in March but still above the normal level, which may slightly benefit the supply at the beginning of the next year [16]. - **Market Performance**: The live pig main contract Lh2509 increased by 0.07% during the day. The short - term supply pressure is relatively small, but the long - term supply is expected to be excessive. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [15][17]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.13% to 14,920 yuan/ton on average [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is a bearish consolidation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and caution is needed when chasing short positions [1]. - The decline of rapeseed meal has slowed down in the short - term, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and the US Department of Agriculture report [1]. - Palm oil is in a weak operation, lacking bullish drivers, and the center of oscillation is moving downward [8]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the supply side is bearish, the market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations [1]. - Jujube is in a slightly bullish oscillation. The high inventory of old jujubes is a pressure, but the pre - festival stocking has supported the market [1]. - Live pigs are under pressure to operate. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of price suppression in the later period [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The positive impact of China - US trade tariff events has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the continuous rainfall in May in the Great Lakes region of the US [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. As of May 2, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills have increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased. The supply of soybean meal is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the spot and basis have declined [3]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3350 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a demand for consolidation or rebound [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May, but the import from May to July is expected to decline significantly [7]. - **Market Advantage**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious [7]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2565 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. It rebounded slightly yesterday, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 3.23% week - on - week and 22.49% year - on - year. India's palm oil imports in April are expected to decline by 24% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Malaysia's palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [8]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil continued its short - term decline and closed slightly lower, but there is a demand for short - term consolidation near the previous low [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and some cotton farmers are considering expanding planting. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's cotton intended planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton planting in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the demand is in the off - season [10]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (CF2509) closed at 12900 yuan/ton, up 0.90%. The market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations, and a short - term rebound is expected [1][10]. Jujube - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [13]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of jujube (CJ2509) closed at 9050 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is emerging, supporting the short - term market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Industry Data**: The national sample enterprise pig inventory increased by 0.36% month - on - month, the slaughter volume increased by 16.82%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% [14]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline [1][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Situation**: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - **Market Situation**: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - **Market Situation**: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of the China - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started. In China, soybean inventories at ports and oil mills have been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, and the supply of soybean meal is temporarily tight before and after the May Day holiday. The monthly import volume from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. The price of soybean meal continued to fall yesterday, and the downward space is limited before the holiday [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal at oil mills have decreased. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. The decline in soybean meal prices has led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. With the approaching of the new rapeseed listing in China, there is short - term supply pressure [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased. The improvement in marginal supply and the expectation of continuous improvement may cause the price center of international palm oil to gradually decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure for the time being [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Decline and adjustment. US cotton sowing is ongoing, and the improvement of soil moisture is negative for the market. The tariff war has entered a phased buffer, and the demand is expected to recover. However, the overall market recession expectation has not been significantly reversed. In China, the new cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is entering the seasonal off - season [1][11][12]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. Currently, there are limited disturbances in the planting end. The supply in the downstream market is relatively sufficient, and the market is in the traditional consumption off - season. The arrival of seasonal fresh fruits has squeezed the market, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Low - level oscillation. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the release of large - weight pigs may further suppress prices. The consumer end lacks continuous growth momentum, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed [1][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The impact of the China - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started. The initial planting progress and weather outlook are relatively smooth [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From April to June, the monthly import volume is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, soybean inventories at ports and oil mills have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, while soybean meal inventories are still decreasing. The spot supply of soybean meal is tight, driving the recent soybean meal market [3]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 2964 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3602.29 yuan/ton, down 2.35% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 25, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 25.5 tons, down 6.5 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.97 tons, down 0.02 tons; the unexecuted contract was 7.72 tons, down 0.7 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than that of the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested and listed in May. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 900 yuan/ton, reducing the substitution of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal has driven the rise of rapeseed meal prices [7]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2588 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2624.21 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 18, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 38.44 tons, up 3.58% from the previous week and down 22.62% year - on - year [9]. - **Market Situation**: In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased. The production growth rate is greater than the export growth rate, and there is a risk of weakening. The near - month contract may have strong price support due to the high basis and limited imports [1][9]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The national average price was 8865 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has improved the soil moisture. In Brazil, the cumulative rainfall in Mato Grosso has decreased, and the soil moisture in the cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The sowing of Xinjiang cotton is mostly completed, and the high - yield expectation remains. The spring peak season is ending, and the orders and operating rates of textile enterprises are falling [12]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of cotton (CF2509) closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14261 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10][11]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10505 tons, a decrease of 16 tons from the previous week. The market trading atmosphere is light, and prices are stable [16]. - **Market Situation**: As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits gradually weakens, and the future demand is expected to decline. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [16]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of red dates (CJ2509) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [14][16]. Live Pigs - **Supply Situation**: Due to the slight decline in the number of piglets born at the end of 2024, the supply pressure from April to June will have limited increase. In the third quarter, the supply pressure will remain relatively high. The long - term supply pressure in the second half of 2025 is expected to deepen [18]. - **Demand Situation**: After the festival, the demand has increased slightly, but the relative level is still low. The support of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the improvement of seasonal demand needs attention [18]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13930 yuan/ton, down 1.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14940 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. Considering the pre - holiday capital risk aversion, the continuous downward space is limited, and it will mainly show a weak consolidation before the holiday [1]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to decline in the short - term. After the holiday, attention can be paid to whether it can build a second bottom - hunting and stabilizing opportunity above 2570 yuan [1]. - Palm oil will experience a short - term oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to Malaysian data and the risk of weakening, and also to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1]. - Cotton is expected to return to a weak rhythm in the short - term. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of subsequent tariff policies [1]. - The jujube market is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1]. - The pig market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The impact of the Sino - US trade tariff increase event on the upside is limited. South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started. The current planting progress and weather outlook are relatively smooth [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the soybean meal inventory is still in a state of destocking, and the spot supply of soybean meal is tight. As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 29.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 84.69%. The near - month contract remains strong, but the main contract is expected to run bearishly in the short - term. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long [1][2][3]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2985 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3688 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 9700 tons, both showing a decrease compared to the previous week. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than that of the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested and listed in May [7]. - **Price Influence Factors**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently expanded to over 900 yuan/ton, reducing the substitutability of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in the spot price of soybean meal due to short - term supply shortages has driven up the price of rapeseed meal. In addition, the continuous rise of Canadian rapeseed in the past two days and strong export demand have supported the domestic rapeseed meal price. Before the holiday, be cautious about going long due to the approaching new - season rapeseed harvest [7]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2641 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2657.37 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of April 18, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 384,400 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.62%. From April 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. From April 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products increased to varying degrees [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of palm oil is expected to decline in the short - term. The near - month contract may be strongly supported due to the high basis and limited current imports. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and the export situation of Malaysian palm oil in April [1][8][9]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 8174 yuan/ton, down 2.41% from the previous day. The national average price was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [8]. Cotton - **International**: As of the week of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The US main cotton - producing areas are expected to receive rainfall this weekend to improve soil moisture. In Brazil, the cumulative rainfall in Mato Grosso has decreased recently, and the soil moisture in the cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton sowing in Xinjiang is gradually coming to an end, and the overall climate is favorable for growth. The demand is entering the seasonal off - season, and textile enterprises are replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis. In March 2025, the domestic retail of clothing and textiles was still resilient, and the foreign trade export data improved. The price center of the disk is expected to return to a weak operation after a small rebound [12][13]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 12950 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The domestic spot average price was 14261 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10][11]. Jujube - **Production Area**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,505 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits will weaken [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the jujube market has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation recently [15]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of jujube, CJ2509, closed at 9070 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [14][15]. Pig - **Supply**: The high - level decline in the number of piglets born at the end of 2024 means that the supply pressure from April to June will have limited growth. After the holiday, there is still a certain amount of second - fattening waiting to enter the market. The increase in the number of piglets from January to February 2025 indicates that the supply pressure in the third quarter will remain relatively high. In the long term, the increase in the number of breeding sows in February deepens the expectation of overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025. The inventory is continuously increasing slightly, and the average slaughter weight and frozen - product storage rate are continuously rising [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has increased slightly after the holiday, but the relative level is still low. The support from second - fattening has slowed down, but the improvement in seasonal demand still needs attention [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to intervene in the H2 reverse spread [18]. - **Price Data**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14960 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 万吨以上。受豆粕低库存，现货供应偏紧影 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续三两周累库，本周大豆开机继续回升，但节前备 | | | | 货提振豆粕消费。5-6 月月均进口 1000 | | 豆粕 | | 响，近月合约暂维持强势，主力合约昨日小幅收涨，但尚未打破短期调整格局。国 | | | | 际层面美豆未来十五天降雨展望充沛，以及国内 4 月开始进入集中进口供应季，在 | | | | 缺乏基本面利多预期下，豆粕主力短期暂以偏空运行格局为主。节前看多追多操作 | | | | 谨慎对待。主力【3030，3080】 | | | 短线反弹 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜粕库存偏低，低于过去两年同期，对现货价格 | | | | 带来支持，消费库存维持高位。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 900 元/吨以上， | | | | 菜粕替代性下降。但由于豆粕现货价格因为短期供应不足大幅上涨，带动菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | | 转弱，昨日豆粕延续小幅收跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面，由于短期国内边际供应 | | | | 预计逐步增加，且国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨充沛，在缺乏基本面利多支持下， | | | | 豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行为主。主力【3050，2965】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上，受短期库存及供应压力影响，菜粕短期承压下跌，偏空对待。主力 | | | | 【2540,2660】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反弹整理 | 4 月国际棕 ...

Report Investment Ratings No information provided on the overall industry investment ratings Core Views - **豆粕**: High-level consolidation with a weakening trend. The positive impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited. Short-term marginal supply is increasing, and it is expected to gradually return to fundamentals, with a risk of weakening [1][3]. - **菜粕**: High-level oscillation with a weakening trend. Short-term supply is expected to be sufficient, and it may gradually return to a weak operation based on fundamentals as the impact of China-US trade tariff events cools [1][6]. - **棕榈油**: Short-term rebound. International palm oil prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity. Pay attention to international price guidance and consider short-selling opportunities after the rebound [1][8]. - **棉花**: Under pressure and oscillating. The international cotton market faces pressure, and the domestic market has a high inventory and a weak consumption policy, with overall prices remaining weak [1][13]. - **红枣**: Weak operation. The current supply-demand pattern shows strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the near term [1][15]. - **生猪**: Wide-range oscillation in the short term. Supply pressure is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. Consider short-selling opportunities on the rebound based on the basis convergence logic of Contracts 5 and 7 [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **International**: The impact of China-US trade tariff events is limited, South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting is about to start [1][3]. - **Domestic**: Ports and oil mills have seen two consecutive weeks of soybean inventory accumulation, and the soybean processing rate has rebounded. Monthly imports from April to June are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle next week [1][3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3471.71 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [2]. 菜粕 - **Domestic**: The inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new-season rapeseed will be harvested in May, with sufficient short-term supply. The substitution advantage of rapeseed meal has reappeared after the spot price difference with soybean meal has returned [1][6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2673 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2635.79 yuan/ton, down 1.42% [4]. 棕榈油 - **International**: In April, both supply and demand increased, and the price center of gravity may gradually shift downward. Malaysia's palm oil exports have been good recently, maintaining a short-term rebound [1][8]. - **Domestic**: Low commercial inventory and imports, with no supply pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance [1][7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8720 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The national average price was 9230 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [7]. 棉花 - **International**: The ICE market has eased due to the suspension of some tariffs by Trump. The April supply-demand balance sheet is slightly negative for the global cotton market. US cotton exports and prices face pressure [1][13]. - **Domestic**: High industrial and commercial inventories are gradually being reduced. New cotton is being sown, and there are no obvious negative weather warnings. China-US trade tensions may lead to a decline in textile exports to the US and an increase in domestic supply [1][13]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12880 yuan/ton, up 0.55% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 14310 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [10][11]. 红枣 - **Market**: The trading volume is low, and the market is in a traditional consumption off-season. Fresh fruits are gradually entering the market, squeezing the market share of dried fruits [1][15]. - **Production Area**: Xinjiang's main production areas' jujube trees are still dormant, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances [15]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2505 closed at 9085 yuan/ton, down 0.71% intraday. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [14][15]. 生猪 - **Supply**: The supply pressure from April to June has limited growth, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is expected to increase. The overall supply pressure in the second half of 2025 is expected to be high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Demand has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Pay attention to the improvement of seasonal demand [17]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2505 closed at 14510 yuan/ton, down 0.24% intraday. The domestic spot average price was 15010 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [16][17].