Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown strong performance, currently trading above $3,300, with a weekly increase of 3%, potentially marking the best weekly performance since early April [1] Short-term Situation - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,260.00 and $3,380.00, with key support levels at the ascending trend line of $3,260.00 and the Bollinger middle band at $3,301.24 [3] - If prices can maintain above these support levels, there is potential to test resistance at $3,380.00 and possibly reach the previous high of $3,420.00 [3] Medium to Long-term Situation - Fundamentally, gold is supported by favorable investment conditions, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation likely to drive prices higher in the coming months [4] - Technically, as long as prices remain above the long-term average of $3,120.64, the upward trend is expected to continue [4]

Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill, referred to as Trump's "beautiful bill," by a narrow margin of 215-214 votes, with all Democratic members and two Republican members voting against it [1][2] - The bill is expected to increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), bringing the total federal debt to $36.2 trillion [2][3] - The legislation aims to fulfill several populist campaign promises from Trump, including new tax cuts for tips and auto loans, increased military and border enforcement spending, and funding to combat illegal immigration [2][3] Group 2 - The bill will extend the corporate and individual tax cuts enacted during Trump's first term and repeal several green energy incentives introduced by former President Biden [2][3] - The bill is projected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest households, with the CBO indicating that it will reduce income for the poorest 10% of families while increasing income for the top 10% [3][4] - Republican supporters argue that failing to pass the bill would lead to increased tax burdens for many American families and plan to use it to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. fiscal situation is under scrutiny, particularly following recent credit rating downgrades by Fitch and Moody's, which may lead to increased investor concern about rising deficits and foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1][1][1] Group 1 - In 2023, Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating to below the highest level, but this did not result in a lasting market reaction [1] - Analyst Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities suggests that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will continue to drive up the deficit, raising investor anxiety regarding the increasing deficit and potential lack of foreign demand for U.S. debt [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has significant implications for its economic outlook, suggesting a potential rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and indicating that the dollar may have peaked [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. reinforces the expectation that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise over time [1] - The forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to reach 5.00% within the next 12 months [1] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - The threat to the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries highlights the view that the dollar has likely peaked [1] - The substantial U.S. deficit and inflation may compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period [1]