Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1 - The total federal government debt in the United States has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time as of October 21 [1] - This increase occurred just over two months after the debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August [3] - The Chair of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Maya MacGuineas, expressed concerns about the overall fiscal health of the U.S., indicating that total federal debt may not be the best measure of fiscal health, but other aspects of the fiscal situation are also worrying [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Regulations - The Federal Reserve plans to introduce new regulations that significantly relax capital requirements for large banks, with estimates suggesting an overall capital increase of only 3% to 7% for most large banks, which is lower than the previously proposed increases of 19% and 9% [1] - Banks with larger trading portfolios may experience even smaller capital increases or potential decreases under the new requirements [1] Group 2: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [3][4] - Concerns about the overall fiscal health of the U.S. persist, despite the national debt not being the sole indicator of financial stability [5] Group 3: Government Shutdown - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, with no signs of compromise between the two parties, affecting various sectors including the National Nuclear Security Administration, which has placed approximately 1,400 employees on unpaid leave [7] - The shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index and employment data, which could negatively impact decision-making by the Federal Reserve and other institutions [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement to appeal a court ruling regarding global tariffs, emphasizing the potential economic impact and uncertainty in the U.S. stock market if he loses the case [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Appeal and Economic Implications - Trump plans to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that deemed most of his global tariffs illegal, citing the need for a quick resolution due to their significance for the country's financial structure [2][3]. - The appellate court's decision aligns with a previous ruling that Trump improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, which could lead to the removal of most tariffs he implemented this year [3]. - If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, it could severely weaken Trump's ability to impose tariffs, impacting his strategy to compel companies to invest in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Financial Consequences of Tariff Removal - Analysts suggest that if Trump's tariffs are ruled illegal, it could worsen the already strained fiscal situation in the U.S., leading to increased bond sales to cover budget deficits [4]. - The U.S. Treasury Department warns that removing tariffs could result in a "fiscal collapse," as tariff revenues have significantly increased, totaling $159 billion by July, more than double the amount from the previous year [4].

Group 1 - The core view is that the US dollar is on a long-term weakening trend due to closed speculative short positions and deteriorating fiscal prospects amid an economic slowdown [1][4] - The dollar index has faced another failed rebound, attempting to recover from the low in early July but facing resistance, indicating a potential continuation of this pattern [1][4] - Speculative short positions in dollar futures were extremely crowded, making a rebound a matter of time rather than certainty, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing extreme short positions [1][4] Group 2 - Positions in the dollar against developed market currencies have returned to a net long status, while short positions against emerging market currencies remain and are expanding [3][1] - Macro hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have also seemingly closed their dollar shorts, with their sensitivity to dollar performance returning to neutral levels after previously hitting a three-year low [4][1] - The US fiscal balance is under increasing pressure, with an annual deficit of approximately $2 trillion, which could double to double-digit percentages if the economy enters a recession [5][4] Group 3 - The risk of an economic recession in the US is rising, with tax revenue expected to decline, leading to greater pressure on government budgets [4][5] - Market movements are not linear, especially in the foreign exchange market, but the prevailing downward trend for the dollar suggests that any upward movements may become increasingly short-lived [7][1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is showing a strong upward trend against major currencies, supported by robust US economic data and increasing uncertainty in other major economies, which enhances the dollar's relative attractiveness [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - The US dollar index is currently stable at 98.456, having risen 0.91% last week and an additional 0.64% this week, reaching a high of 98.951, the highest level since June 23 [3]. - Recent US economic data, including a rebound in June retail sales exceeding market expectations and a drop in initial jobless claims to a three-month low, indicates a resilient consumer spending and a tight labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to observe before making rate cuts [3]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have adjusted, with traders now anticipating a reduction of about 45 basis points for the remainder of the year, down from nearly 50 basis points earlier in the week [3]. Global Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty in other major economies, particularly Japan, is contributing to the strength of the dollar. Upcoming elections in Japan pose risks to the ruling coalition, potentially complicating economic stimulus plans and trade negotiations with the US [4]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar this week, reflecting market concerns over Japan's policy continuity [4]. Political Influences - Political developments in the US, including President Trump's proposed spending and tax cuts, have raised concerns about the US fiscal situation, which could negatively impact the dollar's credit foundation in the long term [4]. - Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not cutting rates immediately has increased volatility in the dollar's performance, highlighting the influence of political factors on monetary policy and investor confidence [4]. Market Reactions - The attractiveness of US dollar assets is showing signs of divergence. Despite a slight increase in US Treasury yields, foreign investors have continued to buy US debt, with net purchases reaching $32 billion this week, indicating recognition of the dollar as a safe asset [6]. - Conversely, the US stock market has seen some profit-taking, with a net outflow of $12 billion from the S&P 500 this week, reflecting a reassessment of the balance between stock valuations and the strength of the dollar [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds in May, with a notable increase of $32.4 billion, bringing the total holdings by major foreign investors to $9.0458 trillion [1] - Japan, the UK, and mainland China remain the top three holders of U.S. debt, with Japan and the UK slightly increasing their holdings, while China reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month, selling $900 million in May [1][2] - Canada significantly increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $61.7 billion in May, reaching a historical high of $430.1 billion, moving up to the fifth position among major foreign investors [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, noting that despite concerns over the U.S. deficit, the fundamental demand for these bonds remains strong due to their market depth and liquidity [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a large tax and spending bill in May, which is projected to increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the ongoing large fiscal deficits and their implications for government debt and interest expenses [3] Group 3 - In May, U.S. Treasury investors faced multiple challenges, including uncertainty over tariffs, rising government debt, and a downgrade in sovereign ratings, leading to a decline of over 1.2% in Treasury indices [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, despite stable unemployment rates [4] - Fed Chairman Powell noted that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in economic data, and the evolving policies of the Trump administration contribute to economic uncertainty [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing uncertainties such as Trump's trade war, geopolitical risks, and the state of U.S. finances, which have reignited demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in gold price target reflects the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade policies on market sentiment [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to increase as uncertainties persist in the global economic landscape [1] - Citigroup's revised target indicates a significant bullish outlook on gold prices in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown strong performance, currently trading above $3,300, with a weekly increase of 3%, potentially marking the best weekly performance since early April [1] Short-term Situation - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,260.00 and $3,380.00, with key support levels at the ascending trend line of $3,260.00 and the Bollinger middle band at $3,301.24 [3] - If prices can maintain above these support levels, there is potential to test resistance at $3,380.00 and possibly reach the previous high of $3,420.00 [3] Medium to Long-term Situation - Fundamentally, gold is supported by favorable investment conditions, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation likely to drive prices higher in the coming months [4] - Technically, as long as prices remain above the long-term average of $3,120.64, the upward trend is expected to continue [4]

Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill, referred to as Trump's "beautiful bill," by a narrow margin of 215-214 votes, with all Democratic members and two Republican members voting against it [1][2] - The bill is expected to increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), bringing the total federal debt to $36.2 trillion [2][3] - The legislation aims to fulfill several populist campaign promises from Trump, including new tax cuts for tips and auto loans, increased military and border enforcement spending, and funding to combat illegal immigration [2][3] Group 2 - The bill will extend the corporate and individual tax cuts enacted during Trump's first term and repeal several green energy incentives introduced by former President Biden [2][3] - The bill is projected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest households, with the CBO indicating that it will reduce income for the poorest 10% of families while increasing income for the top 10% [3][4] - Republican supporters argue that failing to pass the bill would lead to increased tax burdens for many American families and plan to use it to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion [3]