Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold spot and futures prices surpassed $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 (up 1.68%) and COMEX futures at $4597.6 (up 2.15%) [1][2]. - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver reaching $84.059 (up 5.38%) and COMEX silver at $83.91 (up 5.76%) [1][2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a record high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan (up 2.57%), while silver futures reached 20998 yuan per kilogram (up 14.42%) [1]. Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny due to ongoing investigations, which may impact market expectations regarding monetary policy [5][7]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the latest data showing that domestic gold reserves reached approximately 2306.323 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [5]. - Analysts suggest that if central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could push gold prices up by about $1000 [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, with expectations that the current upward trend will continue, particularly in light of the political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, indicating strong confidence in gold's long-term value [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and has led to global market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Background of the Investigation - The investigation was triggered by the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, with the budget increasing from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, and accusations of Powell making "false statements" regarding the project [3]. - The deeper issue lies in the ongoing conflict over monetary policy, particularly after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, where he pressured the Fed for significant interest rate cuts to reduce government debt costs and stimulate economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Political Implications - The investigation appears politically motivated, approved by a Trump ally, and coincides with Trump's plans to announce Powell's successor in early 2026 [4]. - Powell has responded strongly, claiming the investigation is a "political pressure tactic" aimed at forcing the Fed to comply with demands for interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Trump's Motivations for Rate Cuts - Trump seeks rapid interest rate cuts for political gain, to create an appearance of economic prosperity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, and to alleviate debt pressures, as U.S. national debt exceeded $37.7 trillion by the end of 2025 [5]. - A 1% reduction in interest rates could save the government nearly $400 billion annually in interest payments, which is significant given that interest expenses accounted for about 27% of federal revenue in 2025 [5]. - Additionally, rate cuts are seen as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs on U.S. businesses and consumers, thereby stabilizing the economy and capital markets [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the investigation, safe-haven assets surged, with gold prices rising 1.88% to over $4,600 per ounce, and silver increasing by over 4% to reach historical highs [8]. - The U.S. dollar and stock markets faced pressure, with the dollar index dropping 0.3% and S&P 500 futures declining by 0.5% [8]. Group 5: Potential Global Impact - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it may lead to irrational interest rate cuts, potentially increasing U.S. inflation and affecting global bond pricing [9]. - The dollar's reserve status could be questioned, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization globally [9]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28, 2026, will be a critical point to observe for market reactions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, leading to increased demand for precious metals as a low-risk alternative to the dollar [3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of January 12, 2026, the spot silver price is at $84.15 per ounce, with a trading range between $79.94 and $84.60 during the day [1][2]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 20,909 yuan per kilogram and paper silver at 18.897 yuan per gram [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Key events driving the current market include ongoing unrest in Iran and potential U.S. intervention, which heightens geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure, raising concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy [3]. - KCM Trade's chief market analyst notes that in a low-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non-yielding precious metals like silver is increasing, with expectations of continued demand from central banks [3]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts to June and September 2026, indicating a significant delay from previous expectations [3]. - JPMorgan no longer anticipates a rate cut in January 2026, now predicting a rate hike in Q3 2027 [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that silver prices remain in an upward channel, suggesting a bullish outlook [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.66, indicating overbought conditions and potential for short-term consolidation [4]. - Key resistance levels include the historical high of $85.87 and the upper boundary of the upward channel around $88.40 [4]. - Initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $77.94, followed by the lower boundary of the upward channel at approximately $76.40 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed a criminal investigation initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, asserting that the investigation stems from the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than political pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The U.S. Department of Justice issued a grand jury subpoena on January 9, focusing on the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, which has reportedly exceeded its budget [1]. - Powell denied claims that the renovation project would cost $3.1 billion, which was cited by former President Trump during a visit to the construction site [1]. Group 2: Political Context - Powell's statement highlighted the unprecedented nature of the investigation, suggesting it should be viewed in the context of ongoing threats and pressure from the current administration [1]. - Trump has consistently urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and has publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as "too late" in his actions [1][2]. Group 3: Powell's Tenure and Commitment - Powell was nominated by Trump in his first term and later re-nominated by President Biden, with his current term set to end in May 2026 [2]. - Throughout his tenure, Powell emphasized his commitment to the Federal Reserve's statutory mission of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment, free from political influence [2].

据CCTV国际时讯援引《纽约时报》报道，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储 华盛顿总部的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目规模向国会作了虚假陈述。 报道称，这项调查已于去年11月获得特朗普的长期盟友、去年被任命为该办公室负责人的Jeanine Pirro的批准，调查内容包括分析鲍威尔 的公开言论及审查支出记录， 此次令人意外的刑事调查使特朗普与鲍威尔的长期矛盾升级。 特朗普一直指责鲍威尔拒绝其大幅降息的要求。尽管特朗普2017年亲自提名 鲍威尔出任美联储主席，但他此后曾多次威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并以"无能"为由，暗示可能就逾25亿美元的美联储总部大楼翻修项目起诉鲍 威尔。 鲍威尔罕见视频回应 在美联储周日发布的一段罕见的视频讲话中，鲍威尔形容这项调查是"前所未有的"，并质疑其动机，同时他坚称自己履行主席职责时"不会 畏惧政治压力"。 "我深切尊重法治和我们民主制度中的问责制。没有人——当然也包括美联储主席——可以凌驾于法律之上。 但 这一史无前例的行动，应该 放在行政当局的威胁和持续施压这一更广泛的背景下来看待。" 鲍威尔称，" 这一新威胁并非针对我去年六月的证词， ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美国司法部已向美联储发出大陪审团传票，威胁对他2025年6 月在美国国会作证时关于美联储总部正在进行的翻修工作提到的内容进行刑事起诉。在美东时间周日晚间发布的一 份声明中，鲍威尔否认了此举与他的证词或翻修项目有关的说法，而在此前不久有媒体援引消息人士透露的细节报 道称，联邦检察官开启刑事调查美联储主席鲍威尔，调查内容涉及美联储耗资数十亿美元的总部翻新项目。 "所有这些都是借口。"鲍威尔在发布于美联储官网的声明中表示。"刑事指控的威胁是因为美联储在设定基准利率 时，根据我们对服务美国公众最佳利益的专业判断，而不是遵循美国总统的偏好。" 鲍威尔在声明中表示，潜在的指控"应当在美国政府的持续威胁和持续施压货币政策的更广泛背景下进行看待"。他 表示，他本人打算"继续以诚信和为美国人民服务的承诺履行我的职责"。这也意味着，特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔 之间的这场"降息拉锯战"远未完结，鲍威尔在声明中透露这样的反抗信息：这一份刑事传票是"政治借口"，我将誓 言顶住特朗普压力。 值得注意的是，启动刑事调查是一回事，向联邦大陪审团提供足够证据以获得起诉，或者使得起诉成立则是另一回 ...

值得注意的是，特朗普曾就其关于新任美联储掌门人的决策过程发表过多次含糊，有时甚至自相矛盾的 前后不一言论。这位美国总统在12月早些时候曾表示，他已将美联储主席候选人范围缩小到仅仅一人， 但随后又称他在考虑多名候选人，并对候选短名单上的数个名字大加赞赏。 特朗普长期以来一直批评鲍威尔，而鲍威尔正是他在第一任期挑选来领导美联储的主席人选。这位美国 总统已多次表示，他非常希望下一任美联储主席更积极地推进降息进程，因为白宫希望大幅降低抵押贷 款成本来促进美国经济繁荣增长以及寻求在中期选举之年巩固自己的选票与支持率。 美联储在最近三次会议上均选择下调基准利率，但有美联储官员在12月暗示，他们很可能在2026年仅仅 选择降息一次。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联储主席人选，但并不急于宣布。同时特朗 普还表示，他仍有可能会选择解雇现任美联储领导人杰罗姆.鲍威尔。 当被问及是否有最中意的美联储主席人选时，特朗普在周一的一场新闻发布会上表示："我有，仍然有 ——没有改变。""我会在合适的时候宣布他。时间还很充裕。" 特朗普还补充称，鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且我"很想解雇他"。这位重返白宫的美国总统在7 ...

特朗普可能会在1月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。鲍威尔继任者热门人选包括白宫经济顾问哈塞特、 前美联储理事沃什、美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼。 美联储将于12月30日（周二）公布12月政策会议纪要。 当地时间12日，特朗普当天在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列。他同时 称，沃什和哈塞特两人都不错。 特朗普说，希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助美国财政部降低美国国债的高额融 资成本。他还说，下任美联储主席应该在制定利率政策时咨询他的意见，但不必完全按照他的意见行 事。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。特朗普2017年曾就美联储 主席一职面试沃什，但最终选择了时任美联储理事鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普多次指责 美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。根据相关法律规定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获参议院批 准。尽管在是否降息方面长时间遭到特朗普激烈批评，鲍威尔拒绝辞职并强调美联储货币政策的独立 性。 综合自：新华网 （文章来源：证券时报） ...

综合自：新华网 美联储将于12月30日（周二）公布12月政策会议纪要。 当地时间12日，特朗普当天在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列。他同时 称，沃什和哈塞特两人都不错。 特朗普说，希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助美国财政部降低美国国债的高额融 资成本。他还说，下任美联储主席应该在制定利率政策时咨询他的意见，但不必完全按照他的意见行 事。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。特朗普2017年曾就美联储 主席一职面试沃什，但最终选择了时任美联储理事鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普多次指责 美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。根据相关法律规定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获参议院批 准。尽管在是否降息方面长时间遭到特朗普激烈批评，鲍威尔拒绝辞职并强调美联储货币政策的独立 性。 特朗普可能会在1月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。鲍威尔继任者热门人选包括白宫经济顾问哈塞特、 前美联储理事沃什、美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼。 责编：叶舒筠 校对：祝甜婷 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经 ...

特朗普说，希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助美国财政部降低美国国 债的高额融资成本。他还说，下任美联储主席应该在制定利率政策时咨询他的意见，但不必 完全按照他的意见行事。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。特朗普2017 年曾就美联储主席一职面试沃什，但最终选择了时任美联储理事鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总 统后，特朗普多次指责美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。根据相关法律规定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获 参议院批准。尽管在是否降息方面长时间遭到特朗普激烈批评，鲍威尔拒绝辞职并强调美联 储货币政策的独立性。 特朗普可能会在1月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。鲍威尔继任者热门人选包括白宫经济顾问哈塞 特、前美联储理事沃什、美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼。 美联储将于12月30日（周二）公布12月政策会议纪要。 当地时间12日，特朗普当天在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前 列。他同时称，沃什和哈塞特两人都不错。 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 祝甜婷 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何 ...