Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's nomination of his camp members as "temporary" Fed governors will impact the Fed's independence in the short - term, supporting gold and silver prices [2] - Trump's appointment of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor and the rising probability of Waller becoming the new Fed chair, along with lower - than - expected employment data, make it certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [2][3] - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 777 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.26% to 785.44 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.43% to 9241.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.99% to 3488.00 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.93% to 38.65 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 98.00 [2] - For gold, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 3482.70 dollars/ounce, up 1.48%; the trading volume was 24.34 million lots, up 69.43%; the open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%. For silver, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 38.53 dollars/ounce, up 1.57%; the open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93% [6] Market Outlook - Trump's personnel appointments put strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence, and combined with poor employment data, the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] Investment Strategy - Recommend buying precious metals on dips, with the reference range for Shanghai gold's main contract being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and for Shanghai silver's main contract being 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3]

据外媒报道，知情人士透露，在美国总统特朗普的顾问们为鲍威尔寻找替代者之际，美联储理事沃勒正 成为担任美联储主席的热门人选。 知情人士称，特朗普的顾问们对沃勒愿意基于预测而非当前数据来调整政策，以及他对整个美联储体系 的深刻了解印象深刻。 这些因讨论私人审议而要求匿名的人士表示，沃勒已就该职位与总统的团队会面，但尚未与特朗普本人 会面。 上周，沃勒是投票反对央行连续第五次维持基准利率不变的两名美联储理事会成员之一。他和他的同事 鲍曼两人都倾向于降息25个基点，理由是劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象，另外，二者均由特朗普 提名。 在美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定几天后，一份就业报告显示，在截至7月份的前三个月里，就业增长 急剧放缓，这证实了沃勒和鲍曼异议的可信度。 知情人士称，前美联储官员凯文·沃什和现任特朗普国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特也仍在竞争之 列，该职位将在鲍威尔的主席任期于2026年5月届满时空出。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说，"特朗普总统将继续提名最称职、最有经验的人 选，然而，除非消息来自特朗普总统本人，否则任何关于人事决定的讨论都应被视为纯粹的猜测。" 美联储的一 ...

Group 1 - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy is unsustainable, with warnings from former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner highlighting deeper issues such as federal fiscal unsustainability and political dysfunction in Washington [1][3] - Paulson emphasized that if political gridlock continues and fiscal deficits worsen, market patience will eventually run out, indicating a potential systemic shock to the bond market [3] - Geithner noted that while current bond yields are reasonable, market confidence is conditional on the independence of the Federal Reserve, the rule of law, and fiscal discipline [3][4] Group 2 - The passive safety of U.S. Treasuries relies heavily on the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the liquidity of U.S. debt, but this advantage is not guaranteed [3] - The trend of de-dollarization and diversification of reserve assets by major economies could lead to a more rapid and direct impact on U.S. fiscal conditions, potentially undermining the market position of U.S. Treasuries [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under scrutiny, as political and inflationary pressures may force the central bank to prioritize short-term fiscal needs, which could lead to a reassessment of U.S. debt's credit premium [4][5] Group 3 - Long-term market confidence in U.S. Treasuries will depend on the governance system's ability to restore rationality and self-correct under pressure, rather than on isolated events like interest rate hikes or budget negotiations [5] - If the U.S. government fails to re-establish a balance between fiscal and policy measures at the institutional level, trust in the U.S. financial system may undergo significant reevaluation [5]

Core Points - The independence of key federal agencies in the U.S. is facing significant challenges, particularly with the abrupt dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump, who accused the agency of manipulating employment data for political purposes [1][3] - The July employment report showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 104,000, and substantial downward revisions to previous months' data [3][4] - The integrity of U.S. economic statistics is under threat, with experts warning that the politicization of data could lead to public distrust in the accuracy of economic indicators [3][4] Employment Data Analysis - The BLS reported a notable decline in job growth over the past three months, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [3][4] - The challenges in interpreting the July employment data stem from difficulties in accurately measuring labor supply and demand, particularly during economic transitions [4][5] - The BLS has faced funding shortages and declining response rates for surveys, which could impact the quality and diversity of employment data [5][6] Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - Trump's actions against the BLS coincide with growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly regarding Chairman Powell's monetary policy [6][7] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may accelerate the process of selecting Powell's successor, with potential implications for the Fed's decision-making environment [6][8] - If multiple personnel changes occur, Trump could appoint a majority of the Federal Reserve Board, which would significantly influence monetary policy discussions and regulatory approaches [7][8]

Group 1 - The White House, under the Trump administration, respects the independence of the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House, under the Trump administration, respects the independence of the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The National Economic Council Director, Hassett, emphasized the administration's stance on the Federal Reserve's autonomy [1]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 7 月 FOMC：降息预期继续推迟 证券研究报告 7 月美联储议息会议点评 7 月 FOMC：会议声明偏鸽，鲍威尔依旧谨慎 7 月美联储议息会议将联邦基金目标利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间，符合市 场预期，是去年 12 月降息之后，连续第 5 次按兵不动。 会议声明：偏鸽派，指出经济放缓风险。会议声明删除了"经济活动持续 稳健扩张"，改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"；删除了"经济前景的 不确定性有所减弱"；反映出相比于 6 月，委员会对经济前景的担忧上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表态：温和鹰派。一方面，对 9 月降息保持谨慎，表示 尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定，无法在下次会议上依据 6 月的点阵图（即 今年一共降息 50 bp）来做决策。 另一方面，强调对通胀担忧，表示商品通胀正在上升，关税正在推高一些 商品价格，核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税，合理的基本预期是关税对通 胀造成短期影响。 降息预期推迟，9 月降息的概率跌破 50%。根据美联储观察工具，FOMC 会议结束后，市场预期 9 月维持利率不变的概率升至 54.8%（1 天前为 35.4%）；预期年内只有 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, precious metal prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai Gold fell 0.8% to 773.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver fell 1.26% to 9169 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40%, and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.80% to 97.67 [11]. - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve building seriously interfered with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The trading driver of the precious metal market has shifted from economic data to the interference with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - Next week, the Fed will hold its July interest rate meeting, and its monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish. The Fed's interest rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually turn loose, and there is a possibility that the subsequent interest rate cut will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, and focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, precious metal prices fluctuated. Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver futures, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all declined to varying degrees. The U.S. dollar index also fell, while the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40% [11]. - **Policy Interference**: Trump's visit to the Fed and his public call for interest rate cuts challenged the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The Fed's response was not strong. The market's trading driver has shifted to the interference with the Fed's policy independence [11]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in this meeting with a probability of 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is only 4.1%. However, it is believed that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this meeting, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest rate cut [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [11]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price Movement**: Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices declined, while Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver also showed a downward trend to a certain extent [29]. - **Position Change**: The positions of both domestic and foreign gold increased. The total position of Shanghai Gold increased by 0.49% to 422,700 lots, and the total position of COMEX gold increased by 9.12% to 489,400 lots. The position of COMEX silver increased by 1.29% to 173,700 lots, while the total position of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4.45% to 952,000 lots [31][34]. - **ETF Position**: As of July 25, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2170 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,534 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Yield Curve**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as the yields of short - term U.S. Treasury bonds, are presented in the report [51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The Federal Funds Rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations are analyzed [54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the balance of the U.S. Treasury General Account on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet replenished $21.5 billion in funds, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased slightly to $3.36 trillion [60]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In June, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [65]. - **Employment Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value [68]. - **PMI and PPI**: In June, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, rising above the boom - bust line and higher than expected [71]. - **New Housing Data**: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.321 million, higher than expected and the previous value; the annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than expected and the previous value [74]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The gold basis is presented through the chart of Gold TD - SHFE [77]. - **Silver Basis**: The silver basis is presented through the chart of Silver TD - SHFE [79]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also analyzed [82]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventory - **Silver Inventory**: The inventory data of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through relevant charts [90]. - **Gold Inventory**: The inventory data of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through relevant charts [95].

Core Viewpoint - The visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve headquarters is seen as politically motivated, focusing on both the ongoing renovation costs and expressing dissatisfaction with current interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Renovation - The renovation costs of the Federal Reserve have escalated from an initial estimate of $1.9 billion to $3.1 billion, with Trump criticizing the budget overruns [3][5]. - The renovation project has faced scrutiny from Republican lawmakers, questioning the transparency and reasonableness of the expenditures [5]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's visit marks the first time a sitting president has visited the Federal Reserve since 2006, highlighting a potential shift in the political dynamics surrounding the Fed's independence [2]. - The visit symbolizes Trump's attempt to reassert influence over interest rate discussions, despite the Fed's policy independence [3]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the visit, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw slight increases, reaching historical closing highs, indicating a stable market response to the Fed's current stance [4].