Core Viewpoint - Josh Harris, co-founder of Apollo, believes that Jerome Powell is a solid choice for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman [1] Group 1 - Harris emphasizes the importance of stability in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly in the current economic climate [1] - He highlights Powell's experience and ability to navigate complex economic challenges as key factors in his support [1] - The endorsement reflects confidence in Powell's approach to monetary policy and economic management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts highlight Kevin Warsh's past hawkish tendencies, leading investors to assess the probability of interest rate cuts and the potential independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Former National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn states that Warsh will bring the Federal Reserve back to "traditional" principles [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US interest rate cut cycle is not over. After the current risk factors are released, the US Treasury market may return to the downward trend of yields [2][4][15] - China's bond market also needs to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Whether the performance growth of technology stocks can support their valuations will have an important impact on the bond market through factors such as stock - bond linkage and the flow of household savings [4][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Some important risk factors in the US Treasury market in the first quarter are gradually becoming clear. The next Fed chair nominee, tariff case alternatives, the Cook case, geopolitical factors, and technology stock performance are the main observation points [4][12][13] - The performance of technology stocks in the US may continue to drive economic growth, but has limited impact on overall employment, which in turn affects inflation through the salary channel [4][15] - In the week of January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.89% week - on - week, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and the edible agricultural products price index increased by 0.90% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the domestic cement price index decreased by 1.03% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week on average, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.26% week - on - week, the rebar inventory index increased by 7.73% week - on - week, the rebar price index decreased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 0.46% week - on - week. The producer price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 5.84% and 5.38% week - on - week respectively. The average price of LME copper spot increased by 2.90% week - on - week, the average price of aluminum spot increased by 2.32% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 4.21% week - on - week [4][19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document shows multiple charts comparing high - frequency data with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the year - on - year change of the RJ/CRB price index and the year - on - year change of export volume, the year - on - year change of the producer price index and the year - on - year change of PPI for industrial products [25][27][30] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe and Japan - The document shows charts of the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year in the US, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of Japan and the Eurozone in the derivatives market [90][94][96] Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increase) of various high - frequency data, including the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, steel price index of rebar, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills [102][106][110] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen [146][148]

Core Viewpoint - Elizabeth Warren, a senior Democratic senator on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, stated that Kevin Warsh is not the right candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, citing a lack of independent judgment [1]. Group 1 - Elizabeth Warren's criticism highlights concerns regarding the qualifications of Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve leadership role [1].

Group 1 - Senator Warren expressed that Wash is not the right candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [1]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Silver: ★★★ (indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently with an intraday amplitude of over 10%. The market focuses on geopolitical changes. Putin agreed to a partial one - week cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, while the US - Iran situation is still tense. Trump plans to talk with Iran, and also said interest rates should drop by 2 - 3 percentage points and will announce the Fed chair nominee tonight. There are rumors that the previously hawkish Warsh may be the new chair. With complex short - term information, market volatility risk is high, so control positions and participate cautiously [1] Other Key Points Fed Chair Nomination - Trump plans to announce the nominee for the next Fed chair on Friday morning. Kevin Warsh is among the candidates, and he visited the White House on Thursday. Other candidates include Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. However, the selection is not final until Trump's official announcement [2] US Government - related News - Trump and Senate Democrats reached a temporary agreement to avoid a US government shutdown. The White House is still negotiating with Democrats to impose new restrictions on immigration raids [2] - Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency, authorizing the US to impose tariffs on countries selling or providing oil to Cuba [2] Iran - related News - Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday. The Iranian Parliament Speaker said it's hard to trust Trump, and the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said they are not afraid of threats [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chairman will be announced tonight, with President Trump suggesting that interest rates should be lowered by two to three percentage points from current levels [1] Group 1 - President Trump is set to announce the successor to the Federal Reserve [1] - The current interest rate levels are being questioned, with a proposed reduction of two to three percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, given his extensive background in both central banking and Wall Street [1] Group 1: Background and Qualifications - Kevin Warsh is recognized as a seasoned professional in central banking and has substantial experience in the financial sector [1] - His connections, particularly through his wife who hails from the Estee Lauder family, provide him with a unique network in both political and business circles [1] Group 2: Political Connections - Warsh's father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, is a close friend and significant supporter of former President Donald Trump, enhancing Warsh's political leverage [1] - Tim O'Brien, a biographer of Trump, noted the importance of connections to influential individuals for Trump, which could benefit Warsh's candidacy [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair tomorrow, indicating that the choice will not be surprising to the public [1][1]. Group 1 - Trump mentioned that many believe the nominee should have been appointed years ago, suggesting a long-anticipated selection [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure and the implications for the Federal Reserve's governance and monetary policy direction under President Trump's administration [1][5]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Future - Powell has repeatedly declined to confirm whether he will leave his position as Chairman of the Federal Reserve when his term ends in May [2][3]. - There is speculation that Powell is prepared to step down, but the White House's actions have complicated the situation, particularly due to a subpoena from the Justice Department [5][6]. - Powell's potential departure could allow Trump to appoint two "dovish" members to the Federal Reserve, influencing future interest rate decisions [3][4]. Group 2: White House Influence and Political Dynamics - The White House appears to prefer Powell's resignation, but the Justice Department's investigation has created a stalemate, giving Powell leverage against pressure to resign [5][6]. - The investigation into Powell's testimony before Congress has been perceived as a tactic to pressure him into resigning, complicating the political landscape [6][7]. - Some Republican lawmakers have expressed support for Powell, indicating that they will not consider a new nomination until the investigation concludes, which adds to the political tension [8].