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苹果产业风险管理日报-20250624
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. The trading points on the futures market are limited, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the production of this variety is small [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 9.1% over the past three years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples nationwide and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about the decline of old - crop apple inventory and the reduction of new - crop apple production, leading to high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the futures market. It is likely to be volatile from June to August. Focus on bagging data and early - maturing apple opening prices. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is flat compared to last year, but production is low [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster inventory reduction than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures market [5]. - Unstable weather in apple - producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing area is poor, and there may be a significant reduction in production [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The overall reduction in production based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [5]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. High - priced fruits have no market, indicating weak consumption [5]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01 - AP12, spreads like AP01 - 05, etc.) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different spot apple varieties (e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commercial 70), as well as data on profit, theoretical delivery price, and basis [6]. Apple Inventory - As of June 20, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 116.49 (decrease of 10.97), and as of June 12, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), it was 126.69 (decrease of 9.81). The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc.) and the weekly changes in the number of trucks arriving at some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) are also provided [8].
苹果产业风险管理日报-20250610
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:17
Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: June 10, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market focuses on bagging conditions and consumption impacts, and attention should be paid to early-maturing apple prices after mid-June [4] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in some regions; bearish factors include less-than-expected overall yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [5][6] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.8% [3] - For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, enterprises with long positions can short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7650 range to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop apple inventory and potential new - crop apple production reduction, enterprises with short positions can buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7350 - 7450 range to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - Inventory in apple production areas is at a historical low. Low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking in the early stage have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, indicating a possible significant production reduction [5] Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [6] - As the season for seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices has impacted the apple market. High - priced fruits have few buyers, indicating weak consumption [6] Price Changes - On June 10, 2025, the closing prices of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly percentage changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7439 with a daily increase of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.54% [6] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80) remained stable on that day, with no daily or weekly price changes [6] Inventory Status - The national cold - storage inventory is 138.2 (unit not specified), showing a decrease of 13.76 compared to a previous period. The national cold - storage inventory in another comparison is 136.5 with an increase of 9.81 [9] - Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have different cold - storage capacity ratios, all showing a downward trend [9] - The arrival volume of apples at major wholesale markets in Guangdong (such as Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen) decreased on a weekly basis [9]
苹果产业风险管理日报-20250516
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 14:21
Report Information - Report Name: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The current contradiction in the apple market revolves around the production volume expectation of the new production season, and the market is in a game over the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [3] Summary by Directory Apple Price Range Prediction - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7500 - 8500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 99.2% [3] Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 8000 - 8100 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple yield reduction, and high purchase prices, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7500 - 7600 [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Qilu Yuanquan, the largest delivery warehouse in the eastern production area, was suspended from delivery business by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, indicating stricter delivery quality inspection requirements and being unfavorable to the delivery side [4] - The inventory in the production areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and a faster de - stocking speed than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures price [4] - Unstable weather in the production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, possibly leading to a large - scale yield reduction [4] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Although the production areas experienced gale, cooling, and dry - hot wind weather in April, it is too early to estimate the yield, and there are doubts about the results of current research reports indicating a large - scale yield reduction due to poor fruit - setting [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes on May 16, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 7711 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.12% [5] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commodity 70, etc.) also had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change [5] - Other indicators such as盘面利润 (futures profit), 交割理论价格 (theoretical delivery price), 主力基差 (main contract basis), etc. also showed corresponding changes [5] Apple Inventory - On May 16, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory data from Steel Union was 195.1 with a weekly decrease of 33.76, and the data from Zhuochuang was 165.82 with a weekly decrease of 25.37 [7] - The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also showed weekly decreases [7] - The arrival vehicle numbers and their weekly changes in some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) were provided [7]