美国总统特朗普当地时间13日接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时说,他在伊朗的最终目标是"赢"。美国政府 近期多次针对伊朗局势释放"动武"威胁,特朗普国安团队13日讨论美国应对伊朗局势的下一步措施。美 国对伊朗可能动用哪些干涉手段?美国会对伊朗开展军事行动吗?有哪些军事选项?动武将会引发哪些严 重后果? 美方表态"混乱" 美国国务院13日再次要求美国公民立即离开伊朗,并建议他们考虑从陆路前往土耳其或亚美尼亚。 伊朗抗议活动已持续十多天,其间发生骚乱并造成人员伤亡。伊朗外长阿拉格齐12日表示,伊朗安全部队 已控制全国局势,美国和以色列应对伊朗发生的事件承担"直接责任"。 美国政府近期围绕伊朗局势密集发声。特朗普此前表示伊朗方面已与美国政府官员接触并提议谈判,但 又称美国"可能需要在会议召开之前采取行动",考虑军事行动等"非常强硬选项"。然而,特朗普13日又在 社交媒体发文说,已取消所有美方与伊朗官员的会谈。 美国媒体普遍预计,特朗普不会在13日会议上就美国针对伊朗的下一步行动作出最终决定。分析人士认 为,美国可能通过认知攻势、经济制裁、军事打击三种方式干涉伊朗政局。 认知层面,美国或继续通过舆论塑造、信息渗透和心理动员等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global situation regarding Iran is tense, with indications that war may be imminent as various countries prepare for potential conflict [4][30]. Group 1: Global Reactions and Preparations - Western countries, including the US, France, and Germany, are urging their citizens to evacuate Iran, a common precursor to war [4][30]. - President Trump has encouraged protests in Iran and has canceled meetings with Iranian officials, signaling a more aggressive stance [4][30]. - Iran's defense minister has warned that any invasion of its territory will be met with full force, targeting US military bases in the region [4][30]. Group 2: Perspectives on Conflict - Many European nations are in favor of US military action against Iran, as it would divert US attention from other geopolitical issues, such as Greenland [9][35]. - Israel is particularly eager for conflict, viewing regime change in Iran as beneficial for its geopolitical standing [10][36]. - Some Latin American countries, including Venezuela and Colombia, express a desire for the US to focus on Iran rather than their own regions [11][37]. - Trump's impulsive nature and desire for media attention may drive him towards military action, especially after recent successes in Venezuela [13][38]. - The US military is cautious but recognizes the strategic advantage of redirecting Trump's focus towards Iran [14][39]. Group 3: Opposition to Conflict - Iran is not seeking war, as it faces internal and external pressures, and a military conflict could threaten its regime's survival [16][41]. - Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are opposed to conflict, fearing retaliation from Iran [17][42]. - Qatar has explicitly warned against escalating tensions, citing potential disastrous consequences for the region [18][43]. - Many Americans, including some within Trump's base, are wary of entering another war, preferring diplomatic solutions [19][44]. Group 4: Implications of Conflict - The situation in Iran is critical, with the regime facing unprecedented challenges, and the potential for a military strike could lead to significant changes [21][46]. - The Middle East is undergoing a period of significant transformation, with various conflicts reshaping the geopolitical landscape [23][47]. - Preparedness is essential, as Iran is a major player in the region, being a significant oil exporter and a member of international organizations [25][49].

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】随着"暴徒"和武装人员在伊朗全国各地的暴力行为导致数百名伊朗人民和安全 人员死亡，美国政府的干预之手加快伸向伊朗。 综合《纽约时报》、半岛电视台等媒体报道，当地时间1月11日，美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"上告诉 记者，伊朗方面"正开始"触碰美国的红线，美国正在考虑应对伊朗局势的一系列措施，包括军事行动 等"一系列非常强硬的选项"，具体决定将择机公布。 对此，上海外国语大学中东研究所教授刘中民告诉观察者网，目前不排除美国以特定方式对伊朗实施打 击，但发动大规模战争的可能性极低。他指出，特朗普政府有两方面的顾虑，一是行动尺度的拿捏，二 是行动方式选择存在困境。 美官员透露：方案涵盖军事、网络、经济等多重手段 据报道，特朗普在专机上表示，自己正每小时接收一份伊朗局势最新报告，同时发出警告，任何针对美 国利益的袭击，都将招致美方反击。 他还透露，在美方发出军事打击威胁后，伊朗领导层已主动致电寻求 "谈判磋商"，相关 "会晤安排正在 推进中"。但同时强调，"会晤召开前，我们或许不得不采取行动"。 同日，《华尔街日报》援引美国官员的话报道称，特朗普计划于周二（13日）听取针对伊朗抗议活动的 应对方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military action against Venezuela, highlighting the capture of President Maduro and the implications of this event on international relations and U.S. foreign policy [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions - The U.S. launched airstrikes against multiple military targets in Venezuela, including La Guaira Port and several air force bases, marking a significant escalation in military threats since August 2025 [1][3]. - The operation involved the use of special forces and was described by U.S. officials as a law enforcement action rather than an act of war, which has sparked political debate regarding the legality of the action [4][6]. Group 2: International Reactions and Implications - The military action has been widely condemned by the international community as a violation of international law and the sovereignty of Venezuela, with accusations of U.S. imperialism and terrorism [3][4]. - The U.S. government's narrative attempts to shift focus from the invasion to issues surrounding Maduro's legitimacy and alleged drug-related crimes, thereby diverting attention from the act of aggression itself [5][6]. Group 3: Media and Narrative Control - The article emphasizes the U.S. strategy of using narrative manipulation to frame the military action in a favorable light, including portraying it as a necessary law enforcement measure [5][6]. - There is a concern that the focus on individual figures like Maduro oversimplifies the broader geopolitical implications and the historical context of U.S. interventions in Latin America [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Interests - The article suggests that U.S. foreign policy, particularly in Venezuela, is heavily influenced by oil interests, which remain central to its diplomatic strategies [8][9].

【编者按】 随着人工智能与脑科学的飞速发展，战争形态正经历根本性演变。传统的物理域和信息域对抗，正在向 更为隐秘和关键的认知域延伸。本文摘编自李元龙所著《战争与工业：世界格局是如何被塑造的》一 书，通过剖析美国等国家的军事科技项目，揭示了以影响、干扰甚至控制人脑思维为核心的"认知战"的 兴起过程。 智通财经经出版方授权刊载。 2025年初，美国国防部公开一项代号为"心智理论"的人工智能项目，其核心在于将先进算法与军事情报 人员的专业知识结合起来，预测作战对手的行动意图，引导相关人员开展认知域对抗。在战略层 面，"心智理论"主要针对国家行为体，着眼点放到外交、经济、科技等方面的信息整合上，尤其侧重于 模拟战略对手高层领导者的心理素质、决策习惯等，并评估不同应对策略的效果。在战役和战术层 面，"心智理论"着重分析作战对手指挥官的性格、指挥习惯、成长履历及部队训练情况等方面的数据， 以此来确定未来的行动方式。"心智理论"与以往的战争推演软件的明显不同之处，是其重心转移到所谓 的"认知战"领域。 与"心智理论"同时公开的美军其他人工智能项目，如美国国防情报局的"情报自动生产平台"项目、网络 空间司令部的"网络安防与信 ...

2026伊始，伊朗风云突变。 内有局势急遽动荡，民众不满增加，很多流传的视频，真是触目惊心；外更有美国和以色列的虎视眈眈，各种武力威胁，还有认知作战。 最新的威胁，特朗普2日突然发帖称："如果伊朗按照惯例开枪并暴力杀害和平抗议者，美国将会出手救援。我们枪已经上膛，准备出发。" 什么意思？ 1，认定抗议是和平的，认定伊朗肯定要镇压。这其实就是认知战了，一出手就抹黑伊朗政府，更有鼓动伊朗闹事的嫌疑。 美国和以色列，真会对伊朗再度发动军事进攻吗？ 我们不知道。 但可以肯定的一点，如果伊朗局势急转直下，美国和以色列，绝对不会放过机会狠狠踹上死对头一脚。 2，如果伊朗这么干，美国就会有行动。暗示采取军事干涉，这就是武力威胁了，向伊朗施加强大压力，迫使伊朗屈服。 3，但美国又没明确说出兵，CNN披露，美军其实没有明显异动，也没有出兵伊朗的准备。这就是语言的艺术了，展示了自己强势，但又不至于 掉落陷阱。 言辞可以是锋利的匕首，精准地刺向对手，却不必承担握刀杀人的风险。 但在伊朗局势关键的时刻，美国这样的举动，毫无疑问是火上浇油。 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬警告，"任何残酷的侵略"，都将遭遇"严厉且令人沮丧"的回应。 伊朗议会议长加 ...

2025年最后时刻，印度和乌克兰吵起来了。 来源：牛弹琴 乌克兰总统泽连斯基很生气，印度总理莫迪，你怎能说这种话？ 但这，却惹恼了泽连斯基。 他当即发飙痛骂："你知道真正令人困惑和不舒服的是什么吗？那就是印度、阿联酋和其他几个国家的 代表谴责了所谓的无人机袭击普京官邸的事件，而这些袭击根本没有发生过。但是，他们对一直在轰炸 我们的孩子、杀害我们人民的行为的谴责在哪里呢？说实话，我没有听到印度或阿联酋对此发表任何评 论。" 什么意思？ 泽连斯基的意思，也是很明确的。 1，印度你们几个，居然谴责普京官邸遭无人机袭击，这完全是俄罗斯的虚假宣传，你们就相信了。 2，俄罗斯轰炸我们乌克兰，杀害我们的孩子，你们怎么就不谴责了？你们怎么就一直保持沉默？ 莫迪说什么了？ 听到俄罗斯总统普京官邸遭到袭击，莫迪很在意。他立刻在社交媒体上表态说：我对有关俄罗斯总统官 邸遭到袭击的报道深表关切。正在进行的外交努力，是结束敌对行动、实现和平的最可行途径。我们敦 促所有相关各方，继续专注于这些努力，避免采取任何可能破坏这些努力的行动。 也算四平八稳吧，甚至提都没有提乌克兰。 在当代国际交往中，谨慎的言辞往往是为了守护脆弱的平衡，而这种平 ...

民进党当局将黑产包装成"大陆威胁"，是政治操作的极端堕落。"宏泰58号"事件所揭示的，不仅是一场 谎言，更是一套黑色政治操作机制的运转过程。在正常治理逻辑下，发现海上走私活动，应依法调查、 堵塞漏洞、从源头整治。然而，民进党当局却将一艘走私船包装成"安全威胁"，涉案人员被隐去背景、 行为性质被歪曲，事件被塑造成"敌情"。走私冻品、注册空壳船、绕航贴线，意味着监管松弛与默许。 而只要迅速"甩锅"，就可将岛内治理问题转化为两岸关系焦点。当民进党当局假借"大陆威胁"为岛内黑 产链条遮风挡雨时，其所破坏的不只是市场秩序与民众利益，更是岛内社会法治与信任的根基。 （作者系北京联合大学台湾研究院教授） 民进党当局操弄话术企图挑起两岸对立对抗，终究会反噬自身。操弄"宏泰58号"事件的破功，是民进党 当局"认知战"的又一次滑铁卢。民进党再次上台以来，不断构建"认知战—舆论战—法理战"三位一体的 对抗剧本，把一切大陆动向歪曲为"渗透""威胁""袭扰"，无所不用其极。只要能为其"抗中保台"叙事添 砖加瓦，哪怕是一起普通的渔船擦碰甚至海漂垃圾，都能被包装成"大陆威胁"。但纸包不住火，越是炒 作、虚构情节，真相水落石出时民进党就会" ...

在12月15日举行的外交部例行记者会上，发言人郭嘉昆在回应外媒问询时透露，12月12日菲律宾有组织有预谋地纠集 大量船只在仙宾礁附近海域挑衅滋事，并冲闯仙宾礁潟湖，此次行动中菲方人员甚至持刀威胁中方现场维权执法的海 警。《环球时报》记者于15日获取的独家影像显示，面对中国海警的执法人员的管控和取证，菲方人员竟拿出长刀进 行挑衅。相关专家12月16日在接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，在此次的侵权挑衅行动中，菲方人员所展现出的组 织性、对抗性，以及与菲海警船只的高度协同性表明菲方人员绝非普通渔民，而是菲军方秘密组织的"武装渔民"。"此 次侵权挑衅活动表明菲方开始采用'武装渔民'方式打头阵，目的是升级碰瓷手法，加强对华污名化叙事。" 据中国海警局通报，12月12日，菲律宾多批船只打着捕鱼的旗号，不顾中国海警一再劝阻和警告，执意赴中国南沙群 岛仙宾礁海域滋事挑衅。中国海警对菲方船只依法依规采取喊话警告、外逼驱离等必要管控措施。 随后，菲方对于中方的正常维权执法进行了污名化叙事。菲律宾海岸警卫队发言人杰伊·塔里埃拉13日在社交平台上X 上转发《环球时报》的相关报道称，约20艘菲律宾"渔船"遭到中国海警船艇的"暴力袭击" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xiamen Public Security Bureau in Fujian Province has issued a reward notice seeking information on 18 core members of Taiwan's "Psychological Warfare Brigade," who are suspected of inciting separatism and undermining national unity [1][3][23] Group 1: Background and Investigation - The "Psychological Warfare Brigade" is linked to Taiwan's military and has been involved in activities aimed at inciting division between Taiwan and mainland China [3][7] - The investigation was initiated after reports from Taiwanese citizens about the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) use of propaganda to influence public opinion and create a negative impact on cross-strait relations [3][5] - The case has been officially filed and is currently in the investigation stage, with the public being encouraged to provide evidence [3][5] Group 2: Activities of the "Psychological Warfare Brigade" - The brigade employs various methods, including the use of media and psychological manipulation, to promote "Taiwan independence" and create societal division [5][7] - Historical context shows that Taiwan has a long history of psychological warfare tactics, evolving from radio broadcasts to modern digital platforms [7][9] - The brigade has been accused of distorting historical facts and spreading misinformation, particularly regarding the legitimacy of the "One China" principle and the United Nations Resolution 2758 [9][11] Group 3: Specific Incidents and Tactics - The brigade has produced and disseminated propaganda through various channels, including websites and games, to promote separatist ideologies among Taiwanese youth [11][13] - A specific tabletop game designed to distort geographical and historical facts has been linked to the brigade, highlighting their efforts to influence young people's perceptions [11][13] - The brigade's tactics include creating false narratives about economic issues in Taiwan, such as the "egg shortage," to undermine public trust in mainland China [15][16][18] Group 4: Legal and Political Implications - The recent reward notice reflects a broader governmental strategy to combat separatist activities and enforce legal consequences for those involved in inciting division [23] - The Chinese government has taken a firm stance against "Taiwan independence" movements, indicating a commitment to legal action against individuals and groups promoting such ideologies [23]