截至12月18日收盘，赛马概念下跌1.60%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，*ST正平跌停，新华 都、海南橡胶、中体产业等跌幅居前。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 资金面上看，今日赛马概念板块获主力资金净流出2.26亿元，其中，6股获主力资金净流出，净流出资 金居首的是*ST正平，今日主力资金净流出1.04亿元，净流出资金居前的还有新华都、海南橡胶、中牧 股份等，主力资金分别净流出6988.68万元、2937.37万元、1398.79万元。（数据宝） 赛马概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603843 | *ST正平 | -5.05 | 14.42 | -10449.69 | | 002264 | 新华都 | -2.42 | 10.11 | -6988.68 | | 601118 | 海南橡胶 | -2.21 | 1.16 | -2937.37 | | 600195 | 中牧股份 | 0.00 | 1.30 | -1398.79 | | 600158 | 中体产业 | ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数涨超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3870.28 | 1.19% | 45.47 | | | 深证成指 | 13224.51 | 2.40% | 309.85 | | | 沪深 300 | 4579.88 | 1.83% | 82.32 | | | 创业板 | 3175.91 | 3.39% | 104.15 | | | 科创 50 | 1325.33 | 2.47% | 31.95 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.02 | -0.04% | -0.63 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.07% | 农林牧渔 | -0 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002264 | 新华都 | -3.66 | 13.42 | -3234.56 | | 601118 | 海南橡胶 | -1.28 | 1.21 | -2071.07 | | 002678 | 珠江钢琴 | 0.43 | 0.55 | 87.06 | | 600158 | 中体产业 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 650.80 | | 600195 | 中牧股份 | 0.62 | 1.98 | 2149.32 | | 603843 | *ST正平 | -4.62 | 7.44 | 9539.87 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 资金面上看，今日赛马概念板块获主力资金净流入0.71亿元，其中，2股获主力资金净流出，净流出资 金居首的是新华都，今日主力资金净流出3234.56万元，今日主力资金净流入居前的概念股有*ST正平、 中牧股份、中体产业等，主力资金分别净流入9539.87万元、2149.32万元、650.80万元。（数据宝） 赛马概念资金流出榜 截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The horse racing concept sector has experienced a decline of 2.93%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with notable stocks such as *ST Zhengping hitting the daily limit down, and Xinhua Du, Hainan Rubber, and Zhujiang Piano also showing significant declines [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The horse racing concept sector saw a net outflow of 163 million yuan from main funds today, with six stocks experiencing net outflows [2] - The top stock with net outflow is Xinhua Du, which had a net outflow of 105 million yuan, followed by Hainan Rubber, Zhongti Industry, and Zhongmu Shares with net outflows of 30.51 million yuan, 17.94 million yuan, and 3.37 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Xinhua Du's stock price decreased by 4.85% with a turnover rate of 16.72% and a main fund outflow of 104.65 million yuan [2] - Hainan Rubber's stock price fell by 2.76% with a turnover rate of 1.85% and a main fund outflow of 30.51 million yuan [2] - Zhongti Industry's stock price decreased by 1.37% with a turnover rate of 2.39% and a main fund outflow of 17.94 million yuan [2] - Zhongmu Shares' stock price declined by 1.39% with a turnover rate of 2.37% and a main fund outflow of 3.37 million yuan [2] - Zhujiang Piano's stock price fell by 2.27% with a turnover rate of 1.04% and a main fund outflow of 3.32 million yuan [2] - *ST Zhengping's stock price decreased by 4.96% with a turnover rate of 0.13% and a main fund outflow of 3.00 million yuan [2]

市场探底回升，情绪逐步回暖，三大指数集体收红。板块方面，可控核聚变概念持续走强，中洲特材直 线拉升20cm涨停；半导体板块震荡拉升，晶丰明源20cm涨停；贵金属板块全天活跃，招金黄金涨超8％ 领涨；下跌方面，零售板块持续调整，茂业商业、中央商场等多股跌停；地产股持续调整，广宇集团、 南都物业等多股跌停。总体来看，个股涨跌互现，上涨个股超2600只。截至收盘，沪指报3889.35点， 涨0.41%；深证成指报13258.33点，涨0.84%；创指报3194.36点，涨0.97%。盘面上，可控核聚变、贵金 属、金属新材料板块涨幅居前，赛马概念、零售、共享单车板块跌幅居前。 ...

Group 1 - The controllable nuclear fusion concept sector rose by 1.12%, leading the gains among concept sectors, with 47 stocks increasing in value [1][2] - Notable performers included Tianli Composite, which hit a 30% limit up, and other stocks like Hualing Cable, Xue Ren Group, and Yongding Co., which also reached their daily limit [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 2.248 billion yuan, with 48 stocks receiving main capital inflows, and 12 stocks attracting over 100 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top three stocks by net inflow were Yongding Co. (1.04 billion yuan), Xue Ren Group (795 million yuan), and Hezhu Intelligent (376 million yuan) [2] - The net inflow ratios for Hualing Cable, Xue Ren Group, and Yongding Co. were 70.59%, 32.36%, and 30.42% respectively [3] - Other significant gainers included Ha Welding Huatong, which increased by 15.15%, and Changfu Co. with a 12.01% rise [1][4] Group 3 - The controllable nuclear fusion concept sector outperformed other sectors, with the next highest gain being in the commercial aerospace sector, which rose by only 0.29% [2] - In contrast, the horse racing concept sector experienced the largest decline, falling by 4.70% [2] - The overall market sentiment reflected a mixed performance across various sectors, with notable declines in several areas including the superconductor and flexible DC transmission sectors [2]

Group 1 - The horse racing concept sector declined by 4.70%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of the market close on December 11 [1] - Within the horse racing concept sector, stocks such as Xinhua Dou, *ST Zhengping, and others hit the daily limit down, while Zhujiang Piano, Hainan Rubber, and Zhongti Industry experienced significant declines [1] Group 2 - The horse racing concept sector saw a net outflow of 177 million yuan from main funds today, with six stocks experiencing net outflows [2] - Xinhua Dou had the highest net outflow of main funds at 126 million yuan, followed by Hainan Rubber, Zhujiang Piano, and Zhongti Industry with net outflows of 33.64 million yuan, 6.40 million yuan, and 6.10 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - The top stocks in the horse racing concept sector by net outflow include: - Xinhua Dou: -9.99% with a turnover rate of 20.11% and a main fund flow of -12,586.68 thousand yuan - Hainan Rubber: -4.14% with a turnover rate of 2.15% and a main fund flow of -3,363.52 thousand yuan - Zhujiang Piano: -4.72% with a turnover rate of 1.30% and a main fund flow of -640.18 thousand yuan - Zhongti Industry: -2.35% with a turnover rate of 2.45% and a main fund flow of -610.08 thousand yuan - Zhongmu Co.: -1.98% with a turnover rate of 1.58% and a main fund flow of -359.58 thousand yuan - *ST Zhengping: -5.02% with a turnover rate of 0.05% and a main fund flow of -155.85 thousand yuan [2]

Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port will occur on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone in China's economic strategy [1][2]. Policy Benefits - Tax Policy: The number of zero-tariff items will expand from 1,900 to 6,600, increasing the proportion to 74%. Corporate income tax will be reduced to 15%, and goods with over 30% added value will be exempt from tariffs when sold to the mainland [2]. - Trade Facilitation: A regulatory model of "one line open, one line controlled" will be implemented, allowing for the free flow of goods, capital, and personnel, with customs efficiency expected to improve by over 40% [2]. - Financial Opening: The cross-border asset management pilot will expand to 10 billion yuan, with QFLP/QDLP pilots launched to attract global capital [2]. Investment Opportunities - **Shennong Seed Industry**: Positioned as a leader in seed technology, expected to benefit from the modern seed industry cluster in Yajiao Bay, with projected revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - **Kangzhi Pharmaceutical**: Aimed at leveraging the three-child policy and flu season, with anticipated performance exceeding expectations in Q4 2025 [5]. - **Xinlong Holdings**: Transitioning to cross-border business in non-woven fabrics, benefiting from Hainan's Free Trade Port policies [6]. - **Luoniushan**: Focused on agricultural industrialization and land value appreciation, with significant potential from the horse racing industry policy in 2025 [9]. - **Hainan Development**: A dual beneficiary of infrastructure and photovoltaic sectors, with a notable increase in northbound capital holdings [10]. - **Haima Automobile**: Leading in the hydrogen energy industry, with a new MPV model set to launch in Thailand in Q4 2025, benefiting from RCEP tariff reductions [11]. - **Jingliang Holdings**: A pioneer in tropical agriculture and cross-border trade, launching a series of Hainan specialty food products in Q4 2025 [12]. - **Haide Co., Ltd.**: The only financial stock in Hainan, with significant growth potential in cross-border asset management [13]. - **Hainan Highway**: Valued for its infrastructure and land reserves, with a projected increase in commercial real estate occupancy rates [14]. - **Hainan Ruize**: A leader in green building materials, with confirmed participation in major infrastructure projects [15]. - **Haixia Co., Ltd.**: Dominating logistics in the Qiongzhou Strait, with plans to enhance cross-border trade flow through a new "green channel" [17][20]. - **Caesar Travel**: Positioned to lead in high-end tourism and cruise economies, with expected explosive growth post-border closure [18].

Core Viewpoint - The horse racing concept sector experienced a decline of 0.92%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with companies like Hainan Rubber, Zhongmu Co., and Xinhua Dou showing significant declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The horse racing concept sector saw a net outflow of 93 million yuan in main funds today, with Xinhua Dou leading the outflow at 53.4 million yuan [2] - Other companies with notable net outflows include Hainan Rubber and Zhujiang Piano, with outflows of 42.1 million yuan and 4.8 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, companies like Zhongti Industry and Zhongmu Co. experienced net inflows of 4.4 million yuan and 2.9 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Xinhua Dou's stock declined by 1.36% with a turnover rate of 26.14% and a main fund outflow of 53.4 million yuan [2] - Hainan Rubber's stock fell by 2.96% with a turnover rate of 1.77% and a main fund outflow of 42.1 million yuan [2] - Zhujiang Piano's stock decreased by 0.96% with a turnover rate of 1.08% and a main fund outflow of 4.8 million yuan [2] - Zhongmu Co. saw a decline of 1.42% with a turnover rate of 1.30% and a net inflow of 2.9 million yuan [2] - Zhongti Industry's stock increased by 2.10% with a turnover rate of 2.09% and a net inflow of 4.4 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3864.18, down by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [2][4] - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% at one point during the session [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (+4.64%), Comprehensive (+1.79%), and Electronics (+1.58%), while the worst-performing sectors were Defense Industry (-2.25%) and Media (-0.82%) [3] - Notable concept indices that performed well included Horse Racing (+1.95%) and Duty-Free Shops (+1.72%), while sectors like Shipbuilding (-5.09%) and Military-Civil Integration (-1.90%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report highlights a government initiative aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [5] - The market is expected to stabilize with a focus on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and New Energy, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer [5]