证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指逼近 3900 点，市场成交额创历史次高 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3883.56 | 1.51% | 57.80 | | | 深证成指 | 12441.07 | 2.26% | 275.01 | | | 沪深 300 | 4469.22 | 2.08% | 91.22 | | | 创业板 | 2762.99 | 3.00% | 80.44 | | | 科创 50 | 1287.73 | 3.20% | 39.87 | | | 北证 50 | 1604.01 | 0.23% | 3.74 | | | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.85% | 美容护理 | 0.01% | 稀土永磁 | 4.88% ...

一、强势个股 截至8月25日收盘，上证综指上涨1.51%，收于3883.56点，深证成指上涨2.26%，收于12441.07点，创业 板指上涨3%，收于2762.99点。今日沪深两市A股共计91只涨停，综合当前连板数以及当日龙虎榜数 据，其中较为强势的前三只个股分别为：成飞集成（002190）、和而泰（002402）与金力永磁 （300748）。今日强势个股前10位具体数据见下表： 二、强势概念板块 根据A股概念涨跌幅与所对应的股票池综合分析，涨幅靠前的三个概念板块分别为：稀土永磁、F5G概 念与金属铅。排名前10位的概念板块相关数据见下表： | 概念名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 涨停成分股占比(%) | 上涨成分股占比(%) | 下跌成分股占比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布土永磁 | 4.88 | 8.2 | 93.44 | 6.56 | | F5G概念 | 4.53 | 5.56 | 86.11 | 11.11 | | 全属铝 | 3.61 | 3.12 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 3.47 | 5.88 | 84.31 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, and both the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index reaching new highs for the year [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3647.55, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.46% to 11291.43 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.83 trillion, an increase of 116.7 billion compared to the previous trading day, marking the 18th consecutive trading day above 1.5 trillion [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Power Equipment (up 2.04%), Communication (up 1.95%), and Computer (up 1.94%), while the banking sector saw a decline of 1.01% [2][3] - Notable concept stocks included PEEK materials and MicroLED, which saw significant gains, while gold concepts and certain metal sectors experienced declines [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the previous resistance level of 3650.50, indicating a strong short-term market condition [5] - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages formed a golden cross, suggesting bullish momentum, while the Shenzhen Component Index has entered an upward channel [5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by positive domestic factors and increasing wealth effects, which may attract both domestic and foreign investments [5] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, pharmaceuticals, and finance, as structural opportunities may arise [5]

Group 1 - The PVDF concept sector experienced a decline of 1.65%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Sanmei Co., Ltd., Juhua Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen New Star [1][2] - Among the PVDF concept stocks, only two stocks saw price increases, with Jinming Precision Machinery rising by 1.46% and ST Lianchuang by 0.59% [1][2] - The main capital outflow from the PVDF concept sector today was 297 million yuan, with 12 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Juhua Co., Ltd. had the highest net capital outflow of 123.45 million yuan, followed by Dongyangguang with 99.37 million yuan and Putailai with 22.80 million yuan [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow included Haohua Technology, Jinming Precision Machinery, and Sanmei Co., Ltd., with inflows of 23.99 million yuan, 5.89 million yuan, and 3.76 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume for Juhua Co., Ltd. was 2.10%, while the trading volume for Jinming Precision Machinery was 4.04% [3]

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 2.55%, ranking third in concept sector gains, with 28 stocks rising, including Zhuhai Group and Jinhui Co., which hit the daily limit [1] - Leading gainers in the metal lead sector included Xiyu Co. (5.95%), Tibet Zhufeng (4.86%), and Western Mining (4.60%) [1] - The top decliners were Chifeng Gold (-1.78%), Shanjin International (-0.94%), and Hunan Gold (-0.90%) [1] Group 2 - The metal lead concept saw a net inflow of 0.21 billion yuan, with 14 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflows [2] - Xiyu Co. led the net inflow with 1.83 billion yuan, followed by ST Shengtun (597.97 million yuan) and Zhuhai Group (493.65 million yuan) [2] - The net inflow ratios for Jinhui Co. (37.62%), Xiyu Co. (15.00%), and ST Shengtun (11.19%) were the highest in the sector [3] Group 3 - The trading performance of stocks in the metal lead sector showed significant variations, with Jinhui Co. and Xiyu Co. having notable turnover rates of 0.73% and 4.85% respectively [3] - Other stocks like Western Mining and Chifeng Gold experienced declines in net inflow, indicating potential selling pressure [5] - The overall market sentiment in the metal lead sector appears positive, with several stocks achieving substantial gains amidst mixed performances [1][2]

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext leading the gains, closing at 2057.32, up by 0.66% [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.73, up by 0.35%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10163.55, up by 0.41% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Media (up 2.70%), Communication (up 2.11%), and Computer (up 1.99%) [3][4] - The sectors with the weakest performance were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (down 0.76%) and Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.49%) [3][4] - Concept indices that performed well included Digital Currency (up 4.72%) and Ant Financial Concept (up 4.40%) [3][4] Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [6] - The average sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in May [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, but overall is in a healthy operating condition [7] - Mid-term prospects remain positive due to economic resilience and supportive policy measures, indicating potential upward movement in the market [7] - Recommended sectors for attention include Finance, Non-ferrous Metals, Consumer Goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [7]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.04% at 3,385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.45% [1][6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.15 trillion RMB, with over 2,400 stocks rising [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [1][6] - Concept sectors such as zinc metals, Tianjin Free Trade Zone, and lead metals saw significant increases [1][6] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index close down 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.63% [1][6] - In the U.S., all three major stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 1.03%, and the Nasdaq up 1.20% [1][6] - European stock indices showed mixed results, while most Asia-Pacific markets experienced gains [1][6] Important News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a seminar on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, discussing ways to improve the valuation of high dividend and high yield companies [2][7] - The exchange emphasized the continuous improvement of the capital market system, structure, and institutional mechanisms, reinforcing confidence in Chinese assets [2][7] - Future initiatives will focus on encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts and frequency, utilizing tools like buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and investor communication to enhance investment value [2][7] - The product supply side will see an expansion of dividend index-related products to meet diverse market investment needs, promoting positive interactions between long-term capital, patient capital, and quality equity assets [2][7]

Market Performance - As of June 6, the Tianjin Free Trade Zone concept index rose by 2.60%, ranking second among concept sectors, with seven stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers included HNA Technology, Bohai Chemical, and Haitai Development, which hit the daily limit, while HNA Technology, Tianjin Pulin, and Youfa Group saw increases of 9.03%, 2.68%, and 1.56% respectively [1] Sector Comparison - The Tianjin Free Trade Zone concept was among the top-performing sectors, with a net inflow of 120 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The leading stocks in terms of net fund inflow were HNA Technology, Bohai Chemical, and Jintou City Development, with net inflows of 90.06 million yuan, 86.73 million yuan, and 47.65 million yuan respectively [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The net inflow ratios for Haitai Development, Jintou City Development, and Bohai Chemical were 51.10%, 20.62%, and 14.08% respectively, indicating significant investor confidence in these stocks [3] - The detailed fund flow data showed that HNA Technology had a trading volume of 90.06 million yuan with a turnover rate of 9.89%, while Bohai Chemical had a turnover rate of 13.09% [3][4]

Market Performance - As of June 6, the NFT concept index declined by 1.32%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors [1] - Within the NFT sector, notable declines were observed in companies such as Sifang Jingchuang (-7.55%), Tom Cat (-2.20%), and Hailian Jinhui (-7.82%) [2][3] Capital Flow - The NFT sector experienced a net outflow of 1.535 billion yuan, with 53 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in outflows [2] - Sifang Jingchuang led the outflow with 220 million yuan, followed by Tom Cat and Zhongwen Online with outflows of 147 million yuan and 124 million yuan, respectively [2][3] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the NFT sector, the top gainers included Wen Tou Holdings (up 4.33%), ST Zhengtong (up 2.59%), and Sanxia Tourism (up 2.37%) [4] - Conversely, the top losers in the NFT sector were Sifang Jingchuang, Tom Cat, and Hailian Jinhui, with significant declines in their stock prices [2][3]

Group 1 - As of June 6, the PVDF concept index rose by 1.76%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 10 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers in the PVDF sector included Zhejiang Zhongcheng, which hit the daily limit, and other companies like Yonghe Co., ST Lianchuang, and Duofluo, which rose by 6.56%, 2.63%, and 2.61% respectively [1] - The sector experienced a net inflow of 273 million yuan, with Zhejiang Zhongcheng leading the inflow at 189 million yuan, followed by Yonghe Co. and Juhua Co. with inflows of 54.89 million yuan and 31.85 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The top stocks in terms of net inflow ratio included Zhejiang Zhongcheng at 45.14%, Yonghe Co. at 12.54%, and Duofluo at 7.03% [3] - The trading volume for Zhejiang Zhongcheng was significant, with a turnover rate of 8.96% and a price increase of 9.94% [3] - Other stocks in the PVDF sector showed varied performance, with some experiencing declines, such as Heimao Co. and Jinming Precision Machinery, which fell by 1.17% and 1.93% respectively [4]