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瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251217

Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 08:57

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract increased in volume and rose. In terms of the macro - situation, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls in November 2025, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased simultaneously. With the continuous decline of hot metal production, the iron ore port inventory is expected to continue to increase. Overall, the ports show a trend of inventory accumulation, and the supply is relatively loose. However, the raw material inventory of steel mills is generally at a medium - low level, and there is a certain expectation of buying near the end - of - year winter storage. Coupled with the futures discount to the spot price, it provides support for the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound upwards. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 488,996 lots, up 9,427 lots; the spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 20.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 8,171 lots, down 7,174 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 1,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 843 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 752 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 72 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.20 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.09, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 862 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 3,592.50, up 224.00; the arrival volume of 47 ports in China (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 2,928.10, up 358.90; the iron ore inventory of 47 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 16,111.47, up 120.36; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 8,834.20, down 150.53; the iron ore import volume (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 11,054.00, down 77.00; the available days of iron ore (weekly, days) is 21.00, up 4; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 37.87, up 0.07; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly, %) is 60.07, up 0.05; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 44.97, up 5.41; the BDI index is 2,204.00, up 11.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 25.00 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.525 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 78.61, down 1.53; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 85.90, down 1.16; the domestic crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 6,987, down 213 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 12.85, up 0.48; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 15.41, up 0.10; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) is 15.96, up 1.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily, %) is 15.82, down 0.93 [2] Industry News - On December 15, the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 16,092.66 tons, an increase of 68.68 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 15,382.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.48 tons. From December 8 to December 14, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.172 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,600 tons, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2]