铁矿石产业链

Search documents
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a side - to - side trend, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 791.00 yuan/ton, down 14.50 yuan; the position volume is 183,502 lots, down 31,080 lots; the 9 - 1 contract spread is 16 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 2,260 lots, down 7,038 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 lots, down 200.00 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00 is 102.3 dollars/ton, down 1.21 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 852 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 841 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the I main contract basis is 50 yuan, up 9 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.30 dollars/ton, down 0.70 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.29, up 0.03; the estimated import cost is 848 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,046.70 tons, down 15.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,571.60 tons, down 50.80 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,267.27 tons, up 45.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,013.34 tons, up 1.25 tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 10,462.30 tons, down 132.70 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 18.00 days, down 6 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.84 tons, down 0.25 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.96%, down 0.36%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.60 tons, down 1.40 tons; the BDI index is 2,025.00, up 8.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.86 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.1 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.07%, down 0.15%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 21.78%, up 1.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 19.46%, up 1.36%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 23.88%, up 3.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 23.25%, up 4.44% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2775.94 tons, up 19.66 tons from the previous period; the total daily consumption is 116.82 tons, up 0.68 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 23.76, up 0.03 from the previous period. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2571.6 tons, down 50.8 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2381.9 tons, down 125.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports is 1203.0 tons, down 50.1 tons. On Thursday, the I2601 contract opened and closed lower. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, the port inventory increased, and the molten iron output continued to decline slightly, but the output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the black series declined across the board, market sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties corrected, with iron ore prices falling from high levels [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250813
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 09:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Wednesday, the I2601 contract fluctuated weakly. In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month in July, in line with the forecast, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the forecast, which increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, port inventories increased, and hot metal production continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the iron ore price rose significantly recently due to positive support, but with the decline of steel prices and technical pressure around 800, the iron ore price adjusted downward. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA declined from high levels and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is to be bearish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 805.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the position volume was 214,582 lots, down 15,444 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 10.5 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 9,298 lots, up 4,504 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, up 400 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.93 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 845 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.27, down 0.03. The estimated import cost was 854 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) was 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,571.60 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 21.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.76 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.38 US dollars/ton, down 0.20 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.38%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.10%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 20.59%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.81%, down 1.76% [2] Industry News - From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250812
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract continued to rise with increasing positions. The US July CPI data to be released at 20:30 on Tuesday was highly anticipated. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, port inventories increased, and molten iron production continued to decline slightly. Overall, supply - side disturbances supported the rise of steel prices. Molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the January contract was at a discount to the spot, which supported the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, and the red bar was expanding. The operation strategy was to be bullish on the range, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 807.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the open interest of the I main contract was 230,026 lots, down 41,863 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 6.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 4,794 lots, up 457 lots. The warehouse receipts of the I DCE were 3,200.00 lots, down 200.00 lots. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 104.6 dollars/ton, up 1.10 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 836 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 720 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.90 dollars/ton, up 1.40 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.30, down 0.01. The estimated import cost was 845 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,571.60 million tons, down 50.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18.00 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,038.00, down 13.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.95 dollars/ton, up 0.59 dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.58 dollars/ton, up 0.21 dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.18%, up 0.52%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.01%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.93%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 20.57%, down 0.13% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Brazil's shipments were 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments were 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250806
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 10:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2509 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, former US President Trump criticized Powell again for delaying interest - rate cuts and said a new Fed chair might be announced soon. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and domestic port inventories declined. Hot metal production decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, but there is technical pressure around 800, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 794.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the position volume was 358,293 lots, down 26,208 lots. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,536 lots, up 4,646 lots. - The DCE warehouse receipts of I were 3,900 lots, up 300 lots. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 101.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.52 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 34 yuan, down 3 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 101.65 US dollars/ton, up 1.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.34, up 0.02. - The estimated import cost was 835 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,921.00, down 49.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.64 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.61 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.70%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.95%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.42%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.77%, down 0.19 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of Monday (August 4), the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14,310.97 million tons, an increase of 29.24 million tons compared with the previous Monday. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,284.0 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory continued to decline, and the current absolute inventory is at a relatively low level since the third quarter [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 09:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US in July hit a 9 - month low. After the release of non - farm data, former US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and the domestic port inventory declined. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, and the market is shifting from sentiment - driven to reality - testing, with the market likely to enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from a low level. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; I main contract position was 402,645 lots, down 7,364 lots [2] - I 9 - 1 contract spread was 24.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; I contract's top 20 net position was - 19,361 lots, up 1,151 lots [2] - I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, unchanged; Singapore iron ore main contract quoted 101.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.35 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 823 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; I main contract basis was 32 yuan, down 9 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day) was 99.30 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars; Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore ratio was 3.35, down 0.06 [2] - Estimated import cost was 816 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; China's 47 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons [2] - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] - Iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; Iron ore available days (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; 266 mines' operating rate (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons; BDI index was 2,018.00, up 15.00 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.55 US dollars; West Australia - Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily) was 22.38%, up 0.01%; Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily) was 18.05%, down 0.06% [2] - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily) was 19.78%, up 0.25%; At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily) was 20.77%, up 1.09% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, China's 47 - port arrival volume was 2,622.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 302.7 million tons; 45 - port arrival volume was 2,507.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 267.3 million tons; Northern six - port arrival volume was 1,253.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.8 million tons [2] - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,061.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 139.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,532.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 223.7 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1,780.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 79.4 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 1,547.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 752.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.4 million tons [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250730
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 11:03
铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 789.00 | -9.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 452,110 | -30090↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差(元/吨) | 23 | -4.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -20078 | -6306↓ | | | I 大商所仓单(手) | 3,400.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15:00报价(美元/吨) | 101.9 | -0.82↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 852 | +3↑ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 838 | +3↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 728 | +5↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 49 | +12↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数(前一日,美元/吨) | 101 ...
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250729
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 09:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating a plan to enhance the matching of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this period, while the arrivals decreased. The domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year - on - year decline widened. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. Overall, the expectation of the meeting fermented, and the sharp rise in steel prices supported the increase in furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA form a golden cross at a low level, and the green column shrinks. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the trading volume was 482,200 lots, down 7,237 lots; the spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 27.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 13,772 lots, up 12,027 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 102.7 US dollars/ton, up 1.91 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 728 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.10 US dollars/ton, down 2.50 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.41, unchanged; the estimated import cost was 824 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 32.009 million tons, up 0.918 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, up 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, up 0.6306 million tons; the iron ore imports (monthly) were 105.95 million tons, up 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, up 2 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, up 0.68 percentage points; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, down 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 2,226, down 31 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.14 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.18 US dollars/ton, down 0.24 US dollars; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.76%, down 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.66%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.45%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 22.91%, up 1.13 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.918 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. The Brazilian shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.262 million tons [2] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.319 million tons [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 09:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract rebounded but faced pressure. Macroscopically, a Sino - US economic and trade talk is scheduled. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, domestic port inventory increased, and steel mill blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production recovered. Recently, the market has been trading on the upward expectation, but with the sharp rise in ore prices, there may be a short - term correction. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the I2509 contract shows a high - level callback. Operationally, short - term intraday trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume is 562,835 hands, down 17,104 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 27.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,962 hands, down 3,302 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,100.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 105.05 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 839 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 732 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The I main contract basis is 28 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.34, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 854 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, unchanged. The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 64.00%, up 1.17%. The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index is 2,120.00, up 85.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.59 US dollars/ton, up 0.74 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.60%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.62%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.88%, down 1.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.48%, down 0.43% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2,794.77 million tons, up 75.95 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 113.47 million tons, up 1.32 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.63, up 0.39 from the previous period. From July 14 - 20, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 1,424.5 million tons, up 31.5 million tons from the previous period, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and reached the peak since the beginning of the year [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate [2]
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250722
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 09:39
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract continued to rise. The 7 - month Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, and domestic port inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, but the year - on - year decline widened. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded, with hot metal production exceeding 2.4 million tons, and demand support still exists. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract was 619,902 lots, down 43,544 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 29.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,873 lots, down 11,185 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,300 lots, up 300 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.87 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 853 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 12 yuan, down 16 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.95 US dollars/ton, up 2.75 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.30, up 0.07. The estimated import cost was 846 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons. The weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons. The weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,016.00, down 36.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars. The freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.52 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%. The weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, down 0.14%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.47%, down 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.88%, up 2.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.94%, up 2.15% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume at 1,629.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China at 1,443.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.5 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 922.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.1 million tons [2]. - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,371.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241.3 million tons [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract increased in price with decreasing positions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. With the rebound of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills stopped falling and rebounded, and the molten iron output exceeded 2.4 million tons, with the support of molten iron demand remaining. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and both finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 809.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the position volume was 663,446 lots, down 29,220 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 32.5 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 9,688 lots, down 6,143 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,000.00 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 2.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, up 24 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.20 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.24, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 825 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory of iron ore at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of iron ore at sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17 percentage points. The inventory of iron concentrate at 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,052.00, up 22.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.79 US dollars/ton, up 0.84 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.26%, up 2.12 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.83%, up 1.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.87%, up 1.91 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.79%, up 2.29 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, up 122.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, down 6.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,629.4 million tons, down 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,443.6 million tons, up 13.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 922.6 million tons, up 102.1 million tons. From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.8 million tons, down 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,371.2 million tons, down 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, up 241.3 million tons [2]