Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - and medium - term, and a slightly weaker volatile trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, as the supply - demand pattern has changed and the upward trend of ore prices has weakened [1] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Short - term ore demand has dropped significantly due to production restrictions, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking, and the room for demand recovery is limited. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have returned to a high level, and ore supply has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are under pressure. However, the expectation of the peak season and the intervention of varietal arbitrage funds support the short - term high - level volatile trend of ore prices, and it is necessary to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is slightly weaker volatile. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the change in the supply - demand pattern and the weakening of the upward trend of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Production restrictions have led to a significant short - term decline in ore demand, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are shrinking, and demand recovery space is limited. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have reached a high level, and ore supply has increased. The fundamentals are likely to weaken, high - valued ore prices are under pressure, and the short - term high - level volatile trend is supported by the peak - season expectation and varietal arbitrage funds [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求持续下行，且钢厂利润收缩，叠加限产短期 扰动，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海外矿商发运维持高位，按船期推算后续 澳巴矿到货仍将回升，海外矿石供应相对偏高，而内矿生产受限，矿石供应平稳运行。目前来看，铁 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, with demand weakening and supply remaining stable, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable and the ore price will continue to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is continuously declining. Short - term production restrictions still have an impact, and the positive effect is weakening. Domestic port arrivals have decreased, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. According to shipping schedules, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ores is expected to increase. Overseas ore supply is high, but domestic ore production is restricted, and overall ore supply is stable. Market sentiment has improved, and the ore price has strengthened again, but the fundamentals have not improved [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The ore demand has decent resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the valuation is relatively high, resulting in weak upward driving forces. Under the game of long - and short - term factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For Iron ore 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has decent resilience, leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the ore demand has decent resilience, which supports the ore price. But the steel mills' profits are continuously shrinking, and the contradictions in the steel industry are accumulating, so the positive effect is limited. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, and the overseas miners' shipments are weakening from a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian ore will still increase in the future. The relatively positive factor is that the domestic ore supply is low, and the ore supply is increasing steadily [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored. The fundamentals are stable, with the demand showing certain resilience and the supply remaining relatively stable, but the upward driving force is not strong as the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term trend is moderately strong with fluctuations, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is moderately weak with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are stable and the ore price fluctuates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has stabilized at a high level, and the demand shows certain resilience, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking and production restrictions are frequent, so the positive effect is limited. The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined again, but the shipments from overseas miners have stabilized at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase. The domestic ore supply is weak, and the overall ore supply is relatively stable. Currently, the ore demand has resilience and the market sentiment has improved, strongly supporting the ore price, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high, so the upward driving force is not strong [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running steadily at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore decreased slightly, but overall it remained at a high level. The demand showed good resilience, but the profits of steel mills are shrinking, and production restrictions are frequent, weakening the positive effects. - The port arrivals of iron ore have rebounded as expected, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to the highest level this year. Overseas ore supply has rebounded significantly, while domestic ore supply is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected. - In summary, the high - level operation of ore demand provides support for ore prices, but due to the shrinking profits of steel mills and frequent production restrictions, the positive effects are weakening. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the over - valued ore prices continue to face pressure and fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,845.20, with a week - on - week increase of 25.93, a month - to - date increase of 187.30, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,187.32. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 9,065.47, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.87, a month - to - date increase of 53.38, and a year - on - year increase of 65.41. [1] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals were 2,476.60, with a week - on - week increase of 94.70, a month - to - date increase of 236.10, and a year - on - year increase of 128.80. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments were 3,406.60, with a week - on - week increase of 359.90, a month - to - date increase of 205.70, and a year - on - year increase of 240.50. [1] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 240.75, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09, a month - to - date increase of 0.04, and a year - on - year increase of 16.29. - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume was 325.74, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.93, a month - to - date increase of 23.03, and a year - on - year increase of 23.11. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 297.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68, a month - to - date decrease of 1.62, and a year - on - year increase of 21.76. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 106.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.88, a month - to - date increase of 17.70, and a year - on - year increase of 21.58. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak - stable supply - demand pattern, and the ore price is in a state of shock adjustment. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are weakly oscillating, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The ore demand remains high with certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the shrinking steel mill profits and continuous production restrictions weaken the positive effects. Meanwhile, the supply has returned to a high level, causing the ore fundamentals to deteriorate and the over - valued ore price to face continuous pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Trend Judgment** - The short - term trend of iron ore 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being the weak - stable supply - demand pattern and the shock adjustment of the ore price [1]. - **Market Driving Logic** - Demand side: Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running smoothly at a high level, showing good demand resilience. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restrictions are constantly disturbing, weakening the positive effects [2]. - Supply side: Port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and miners' shipments have increased significantly to the highest level of the year. Overseas ore supply has increased significantly, while domestic ore supply is running in a weak - stable state. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, the increase in costs provides some downward resistance. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.44%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the concerns about hot-rolled coil demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not substantially improved. The relatively positive factors are the increase in costs and production restrictions. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.98%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore is high, and the growth space of demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore have not substantially improved, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price is not strong. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6]. - The "Guiding Opinions" require localities to give priority to implementing projects with certain returns, and ensure the completion of projects. For projects close to completion, construction should be accelerated, acceptance and final accounts should be carried out in a timely manner, and they should be put into operation as soon as possible. For slowly progressing projects, measures such as reducing the implementation scale, optimizing construction standards, and adjusting supporting construction content should be studied to reduce unnecessary construction costs. In principle, projects that have not started construction before the end of 2024 should no longer be implemented in the PPP stock project model [7]. - As of August 21, 6 listed steel companies announced their performance in the first half of 2025, with a total operating income of 198.591 billion yuan and a total net profit of 6.755 billion yuan. All 6 companies were profitable [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3270 yuan, 3280 yuan, and 3342 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3420 yuan, 3370 yuan, and 3476 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3020 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2120 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 150 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1150 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 9.18 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.73 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 101.26 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 100.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3121 yuan, with a decline of 0.03%, the highest price was 3145 yuan, the lowest price was 3115 yuan, the trading volume was 1125179 lots, a decrease of 192195 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1458111 lots, a decrease of 65281 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3375 yuan, with a decline of 0.44%, the highest price was 3417 yuan, the lowest price was 3372 yuan, the trading volume was 572544 lots, a decrease of 46710 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1047482 lots, a decrease of 76410 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 772.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.98%, the highest price was 780.0 yuan, the lowest price was 770.0 yuan, the trading volume was 281755 lots, a decrease of 7611 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 451574 lots, an increase of 11185 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (port and steel mill), and steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率, electric furnace开工率, etc.) [15][20][32]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons. Demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of hot-rolled coil has improved. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 0.70 tons. Demand has improved, but the concerns about demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. However, the supply of ore is increasing. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to fluctuate at a high level [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment due to a weakening supply - demand pattern. The price of iron ore is likely to be under pressure, and investors should pay attention to the MA5 line pressure and the steel mills' production situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of price adjustment [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased from a high level, showing some demand resilience which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, limiting the incremental space and weakening the positive effect. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to a yearly high. Overseas ore supply has recovered as expected, and domestic ore production has also resumed. Ore supply has returned to a high level. - Overall, although the demand shows some resilience, the supply is at a high level and the positive effect of demand is weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and combined with poor market sentiment, the over - valued ore price will continue to adjust oscillatory [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being that the demand has some resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. Steel mill production is stabilizing, the terminal consumption of ore has increased, and demand remains at a relatively high level, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking [2]. - Domestic port ore arrivals have declined again, and miner shipments have also slightly decreased. Short - term overseas ore supply is low, but its sustainability at high ore prices is questionable. Meanwhile, domestic ore supply has increased, and the overall ore supply is expected to rise [2]. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the valuation is high with weak upward driving force [2].