Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient, but due to profit - related issues, there may be production cuts. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. The fundamentals are in a state of relatively stable supply and reduced demand during the off - season [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 20,465 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.33%, closing at 2,890 yuan/ton. Cast Aluminum (SHFE Cast Aluminum) trended strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.08%, closing at 19,640 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: For alumina, supply may decrease slightly, and demand remains stable. For electrolytic aluminum, supply will increase slightly, and demand will decrease during the off - season. For cast aluminum alloy, both supply and demand are weak [7][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For SHFE Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices. For Alumina, conduct light - position range - bound trading. For SHFE Cast Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices [8][10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum futures fell 1.89% to 20,465 yuan/ton; LME Aluminum rose 0.24% to 2,525.5 dollars/ton; Alumina futures rose 0.67% to 2,998 yuan/ton; SHFE Cast Aluminum futures rose 1.08% to 19,640 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Open Interest**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum open interest increased by 7.3% to 647,102 lots, and the net position of the top 20 increased by 14,639 lots to 4,602 lots [19]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,380 yuan/ton, and the copper - aluminum futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 57,525 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) remained unchanged. SHFE Aluminum spot prices decreased [27][30]. - **LME Premium**: As of June 19, 2025, the LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread was - 0.03 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton from June 12 [29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.99%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 5.02%, and domestic social inventory decreased by 3.05%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 10.69%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [35]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. The total import volume of bauxite increased, and port inventory rose [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: Scrap aluminum quotes remained flat, imports increased, and exports decreased [44]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. In April 2025, imports decreased, and exports increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased. In April 2025, imports increased year - on - year [50][54]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum products increased, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased [64]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly [67]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: In 2024 (January - May), infrastructure investment increased. In May 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound and under pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has broken its silence recently, driven by factors such as tightened domestic and overseas spot supplies and rising energy prices. The market is expected to remain highly volatile, and there are several key points to watch in the future [2][5]. - With low aluminum ingot inventories in both the Chinese and London markets, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices remains high. Concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation may lead to further increases in energy prices, potentially driving aluminum prices higher. However, considering the weakening domestic spot demand and the medium - term demand decline risk, the risk of a short squeeze in Shanghai aluminum futures is decreasing. Overseas aluminum supply and demand depend on the game between high aluminum prices in the US and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot is expected to remain tight; otherwise, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [2][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Geopolitical Situation and Cost - Side Changes - On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched a large - scale attack on Iran, causing damage to key nuclear facilities. Crude oil prices soared by over 13% on Friday. The situation escalated over the weekend, with Iran retaliating and Israel expanding its attacks. Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and canceled the planned US - Iran nuclear talks. If the situation continues to escalate, global oil and gas supply shortages will intensify, increasing the risk of further energy price hikes [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy - consuming. Rising overseas energy prices will increase production costs and the risk of production cuts. Many major overseas electrolytic aluminum supply countries rely on oil, gas, or coal for power generation, so energy price fluctuations cannot be ignored. Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between crude oil and aluminum prices, and if energy prices rise further, aluminum prices are likely to follow [7]. Domestic Aluminum Inventory and Shanghai Aluminum Futures Spread Changes - Since April, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories have been declining. As of June 12, mainstream area aluminum ingot inventories dropped to about 460,000 tons, a multi - year low, down 320,000 tons from last year and about 30,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Aluminum rod inventories were about 128,000 tons, down 41,000 tons from last year and up 11,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Stable supply, strong demand in new energy vehicles, home appliances, and power, as well as strong export demand, led to inventory depletion. The tightening supply drove up the basis and widened the futures spread. The spread between the continuous contract and the third - month contract of Shanghai aluminum widened from 240 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 800 yuan/ton on June 13, providing strong support for the single - side price [13]. - Looking ahead, the risk of further spread widening is low, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken. The spread widening was mainly due to short - covering in the 2506 contract near its delivery. After the contract switch this week, the short - squeeze risk will ease, and bullish sentiment may cool. The spot market has cooled with rising prices and spreads. On June 13, the spot in East China shifted from premium to discount, and trading became more cautious. The operating rate of key aluminum profile enterprises declined, and the aluminum rod processing fee was continuously lowered. In the long run, domestic demand for aluminum in photovoltaic and new energy vehicles may decline, and the increase in US tariffs on steel and aluminum will also pressure domestic home appliance demand for aluminum [18][19]. Changes in the Overseas Market after the US Aluminum Tariff Hike - On March 12, the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%, and on June 3, it further increased them to 50%. After the initial tariff announcement in February, the spot premium in the US Midwest jumped from about $500/ton to about $800/ton. The US saw a "rush to import" in March, with imports rising from 200,000 tons in February to about 270,000 tons, but imports declined in April after the tariff implementation. With the tariff increase in June, the spot premium in the US Midwest soared to about $1,290/ton in mid - June, significantly increasing the cost of using aluminum for US enterprises, but the US can still import a certain amount at this price [25]. - Outside the US, the LME market has seen a marginal tightening of spot supply as aluminum ingot inventories decrease, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed significantly since April, providing strong support for aluminum prices. The future of overseas aluminum supply and demand depends on the game between high US aluminum prices and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot will remain tight; if high prices squeeze out consumption, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [28].