Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, trade frictions, and inventory changes. Short - term aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate, and future volatility may increase [1][2] Directory Summaries Macroeconomic and Market Environment - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, intensifying trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment and surges in gold and silver prices. The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, with a high probability of a rate cut on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall. In China, major events are unfolding, and market sentiment is optimistic [1] Aluminum Market Conditions - Aluminum spot demand is insufficient, resulting in declines in Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and spot aluminum prices. This week, Shanghai aluminum fell, and the spot changed to a discount of - 30 yuan. After today's decline, spot trading improved slightly [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly this week, and LME spot inventories also rose, with a LME spot premium of 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.93 [1] Technical and Market Sentiment - Crude oil rose slightly today, while LME aluminum fell slightly, trading around $2612. Shanghai aluminum also fell slightly, closing at 20645, with a neutral technical pattern. Shanghai aluminum's trading volume increased while its open interest decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The anti - involution hype in the alumina market has significantly cooled down, and this round of speculation may end. Currently in the off - season, spot demand is insufficient. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a significant impact on the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight decline observed on September 3rd, 2023 [1] - On September 2nd, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton, reached a high of $2625.0, a low of $2600.0, and closed at $2621.5, reflecting a change of 0.08% [2] - The current price of LME aluminum futures is reported at $2612.5 per ton, showing a decrease of 0.25% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is reported at 7.91, indicating an import loss of -1358.87 yuan per ton, compared to -1323.15 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2] - As of September 2nd, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled warrants at 10,850 tons, a decrease of 1,450 tons [2] - LME aluminum inventory stands at 479,600 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 1,450 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures warrants increased by 125 tons to a total of 58,654 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to rise, opening at $2607.5 per ton and currently at $2610.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.13% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2613.5 per ton, while the lowest was $2606.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On August 28, LME aluminum futures opened at $2603.0, peaked at $2623.0, and closed at $2608.0, reflecting a change of 0.17% [2] - As of August 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 57,275 tons, a decrease of 76 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,400 tons, a reduction of 100 tons; total aluminum inventory was 481,150 tons, also down by 100 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.92, with an import loss of -1,318.71 yuan per ton, compared to -1,431.43 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

北京时间7月31日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报2599美元/吨，现报每吨 2594美元/吨，跌幅0.54%，盘中最高触及2609美元/吨，最低下探2594美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： LME铝 2607.5 2621.0 2599.5 2608.5 0.06% 【铝市场消息速递】 7月30日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单446075吨，注销仓单14275吨，减少225吨；铝库存 460350吨，增加4250吨。 7月30日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.91，进口盈亏：-1486.53元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1577.29元/ 吨。 7月30日，上期所铝期货仓单51217吨，环比上个交易日减少1857吨。 7月30日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main 2508 contract slightly down 0.02% at 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25. After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The current automotive industry is in the off - season, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened. As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The main 2508 contract slightly decreased by 0.02% to 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25 [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The spot premium in East China was 50, the discount in the Central Plains was - 90, and the premium in South China was 40 [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum. The 2511 contract closed flat compared to the previous day, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 480. In the current off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain [8]. - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened [8]. - As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. 2. Industry News - As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the EU - US trade negotiation has entered a critical stage. The EU Commission spokesperson said on Monday that the negotiation has made progress and entered the "beginning of the final stage" and will at least reach a principled agreement. Previously, US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods if there was no breakthrough in the EU - US trade negotiation before July 9. Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other goods [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy in real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market [10]. - On July 3, PowerChina announced that its subsidiary signed a mining and transportation project contract for the KEBO bauxite in the TELIMELE MADINA DIAN area of Guinea with a contract value of approximately 5.063 billion yuan. The project is located in the MADINA DIAN area of Telimele Province, Kindia Region, Guinea. The main project content includes bauxite exploration, overburden stripping, waste ore excavation, mining, and transportation in a 204.37 - square - kilometer mining area. The expected mining volume is 28 million tons, and the total land transportation length is approximately 197 kilometers. The total project duration is about 72 months, with no warranty period [10]. - On July 3, Vedanta announced its key metal production in FY26Q1 (April - June 2025). The alumina production at Lanjigarh reached a record high of 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The quarterly electrolytic aluminum production was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and flat month - on - month [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to have relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost providing support for the spot price [6] - The Shanghai aluminum market may face relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory, but industry expectations remain positive due to the macro - environment [6] - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term expectations and cost support may provide some support for the price [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend with a weekly increase of 0.27%, closing at 20,635 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.27%, at 3,024 yuan/ton; cast aluminum rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [6][8] - **Market Outlook**: Alumina has sufficient raw material supply, stable demand, and cost - supported prices; Shanghai aluminum has stable supply, seasonal demand decline, and increasing inventory but positive industry expectations; casting aluminum alloy has weak supply and demand, seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term positive expectations [6][8] - **Strategy Suggestions**: Lightly short - sell the main Shanghai aluminum contract on rallies, lightly go long on the main alumina contract on dips, and trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a range - bound manner, while controlling risks [6][8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 4, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,815 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from June 27; LME aluminum closed at $2,605.5/ton on July 3, up 0.79% from June 27; alumina futures rose 2.76% to 3,160 yuan/ton; cast aluminum alloy futures rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [11][14] - **Position and Spread**: Shanghai aluminum's open interest increased by 3.02% to 691,036 lots; the net position of the top 20 increased by 10,219 lots; the aluminum - zinc spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1,775 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum spread decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 59,095 yuan/ton [17][22] - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan rose 0.32% to 3,100 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi and Guizhou were flat; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat at 20,100 yuan/ton; Shanghai aluminum spot prices fell 0.91% to 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][29] 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.96% to 356,975 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 11.91% to 38,485 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, unchanged from June 26 [31][34] - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports increased, and the nine - port inventory rose by 19 tons to 2,449 tons; waste aluminum prices slightly decreased, and both imports and exports increased [37][44] - **Production and Sales**: In May 2025, alumina production was 748.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 382.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 576.2 tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; cast aluminum alloy production was 61.6 tons; aluminum alloy production was 164.5 tons, up 16.7% year - on - year [37][54][64] - **Market Demand**: The real estate market slightly declined, with the housing market sentiment index falling; infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [67][70] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient, but due to profit - related issues, there may be production cuts. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. The fundamentals are in a state of relatively stable supply and reduced demand during the off - season [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 20,465 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.33%, closing at 2,890 yuan/ton. Cast Aluminum (SHFE Cast Aluminum) trended strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.08%, closing at 19,640 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: For alumina, supply may decrease slightly, and demand remains stable. For electrolytic aluminum, supply will increase slightly, and demand will decrease during the off - season. For cast aluminum alloy, both supply and demand are weak [7][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For SHFE Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices. For Alumina, conduct light - position range - bound trading. For SHFE Cast Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices [8][10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum futures fell 1.89% to 20,465 yuan/ton; LME Aluminum rose 0.24% to 2,525.5 dollars/ton; Alumina futures rose 0.67% to 2,998 yuan/ton; SHFE Cast Aluminum futures rose 1.08% to 19,640 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Open Interest**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum open interest increased by 7.3% to 647,102 lots, and the net position of the top 20 increased by 14,639 lots to 4,602 lots [19]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,380 yuan/ton, and the copper - aluminum futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 57,525 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) remained unchanged. SHFE Aluminum spot prices decreased [27][30]. - **LME Premium**: As of June 19, 2025, the LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread was - 0.03 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton from June 12 [29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.99%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 5.02%, and domestic social inventory decreased by 3.05%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 10.69%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [35]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. The total import volume of bauxite increased, and port inventory rose [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: Scrap aluminum quotes remained flat, imports increased, and exports decreased [44]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. In April 2025, imports decreased, and exports increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased. In April 2025, imports increased year - on - year [50][54]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum products increased, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased [64]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly [67]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: In 2024 (January - May), infrastructure investment increased. In May 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound and under pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has broken its silence recently, driven by factors such as tightened domestic and overseas spot supplies and rising energy prices. The market is expected to remain highly volatile, and there are several key points to watch in the future [2][5]. - With low aluminum ingot inventories in both the Chinese and London markets, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices remains high. Concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation may lead to further increases in energy prices, potentially driving aluminum prices higher. However, considering the weakening domestic spot demand and the medium - term demand decline risk, the risk of a short squeeze in Shanghai aluminum futures is decreasing. Overseas aluminum supply and demand depend on the game between high aluminum prices in the US and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot is expected to remain tight; otherwise, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [2][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Geopolitical Situation and Cost - Side Changes - On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched a large - scale attack on Iran, causing damage to key nuclear facilities. Crude oil prices soared by over 13% on Friday. The situation escalated over the weekend, with Iran retaliating and Israel expanding its attacks. Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and canceled the planned US - Iran nuclear talks. If the situation continues to escalate, global oil and gas supply shortages will intensify, increasing the risk of further energy price hikes [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy - consuming. Rising overseas energy prices will increase production costs and the risk of production cuts. Many major overseas electrolytic aluminum supply countries rely on oil, gas, or coal for power generation, so energy price fluctuations cannot be ignored. Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between crude oil and aluminum prices, and if energy prices rise further, aluminum prices are likely to follow [7]. Domestic Aluminum Inventory and Shanghai Aluminum Futures Spread Changes - Since April, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories have been declining. As of June 12, mainstream area aluminum ingot inventories dropped to about 460,000 tons, a multi - year low, down 320,000 tons from last year and about 30,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Aluminum rod inventories were about 128,000 tons, down 41,000 tons from last year and up 11,000 tons from the beginning of the year. Stable supply, strong demand in new energy vehicles, home appliances, and power, as well as strong export demand, led to inventory depletion. The tightening supply drove up the basis and widened the futures spread. The spread between the continuous contract and the third - month contract of Shanghai aluminum widened from 240 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 800 yuan/ton on June 13, providing strong support for the single - side price [13]. - Looking ahead, the risk of further spread widening is low, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken. The spread widening was mainly due to short - covering in the 2506 contract near its delivery. After the contract switch this week, the short - squeeze risk will ease, and bullish sentiment may cool. The spot market has cooled with rising prices and spreads. On June 13, the spot in East China shifted from premium to discount, and trading became more cautious. The operating rate of key aluminum profile enterprises declined, and the aluminum rod processing fee was continuously lowered. In the long run, domestic demand for aluminum in photovoltaic and new energy vehicles may decline, and the increase in US tariffs on steel and aluminum will also pressure domestic home appliance demand for aluminum [18][19]. Changes in the Overseas Market after the US Aluminum Tariff Hike - On March 12, the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%, and on June 3, it further increased them to 50%. After the initial tariff announcement in February, the spot premium in the US Midwest jumped from about $500/ton to about $800/ton. The US saw a "rush to import" in March, with imports rising from 200,000 tons in February to about 270,000 tons, but imports declined in April after the tariff implementation. With the tariff increase in June, the spot premium in the US Midwest soared to about $1,290/ton in mid - June, significantly increasing the cost of using aluminum for US enterprises, but the US can still import a certain amount at this price [25]. - Outside the US, the LME market has seen a marginal tightening of spot supply as aluminum ingot inventories decrease, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed significantly since April, providing strong support for aluminum prices. The future of overseas aluminum supply and demand depends on the game between high US aluminum prices and demand. If US demand is rigid, overseas aluminum spot will remain tight; if high prices squeeze out consumption, the supply outside the US will loosen marginally, limiting the upside of aluminum prices [28].