Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main 2508 contract slightly down 0.02% at 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25. After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The current automotive industry is in the off - season, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened. As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The main 2508 contract slightly decreased by 0.02% to 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25 [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The spot premium in East China was 50, the discount in the Central Plains was - 90, and the premium in South China was 40 [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum. The 2511 contract closed flat compared to the previous day, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 480. In the current off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain [8]. - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened [8]. - As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. 2. Industry News - As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the EU - US trade negotiation has entered a critical stage. The EU Commission spokesperson said on Monday that the negotiation has made progress and entered the "beginning of the final stage" and will at least reach a principled agreement. Previously, US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods if there was no breakthrough in the EU - US trade negotiation before July 9. Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other goods [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy in real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market [10]. - On July 3, PowerChina announced that its subsidiary signed a mining and transportation project contract for the KEBO bauxite in the TELIMELE MADINA DIAN area of Guinea with a contract value of approximately 5.063 billion yuan. The project is located in the MADINA DIAN area of Telimele Province, Kindia Region, Guinea. The main project content includes bauxite exploration, overburden stripping, waste ore excavation, mining, and transportation in a 204.37 - square - kilometer mining area. The expected mining volume is 28 million tons, and the total land transportation length is approximately 197 kilometers. The total project duration is about 72 months, with no warranty period [10]. - On July 3, Vedanta announced its key metal production in FY26Q1 (April - June 2025). The alumina production at Lanjigarh reached a record high of 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The quarterly electrolytic aluminum production was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and flat month - on - month [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to have relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost providing support for the spot price [6] - The Shanghai aluminum market may face relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory, but industry expectations remain positive due to the macro - environment [6] - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term expectations and cost support may provide some support for the price [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend with a weekly increase of 0.27%, closing at 20,635 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.27%, at 3,024 yuan/ton; cast aluminum rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [6][8] - **Market Outlook**: Alumina has sufficient raw material supply, stable demand, and cost - supported prices; Shanghai aluminum has stable supply, seasonal demand decline, and increasing inventory but positive industry expectations; casting aluminum alloy has weak supply and demand, seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term positive expectations [6][8] - **Strategy Suggestions**: Lightly short - sell the main Shanghai aluminum contract on rallies, lightly go long on the main alumina contract on dips, and trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a range - bound manner, while controlling risks [6][8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 4, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,815 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from June 27; LME aluminum closed at $2,605.5/ton on July 3, up 0.79% from June 27; alumina futures rose 2.76% to 3,160 yuan/ton; cast aluminum alloy futures rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [11][14] - **Position and Spread**: Shanghai aluminum's open interest increased by 3.02% to 691,036 lots; the net position of the top 20 increased by 10,219 lots; the aluminum - zinc spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1,775 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum spread decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 59,095 yuan/ton [17][22] - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan rose 0.32% to 3,100 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi and Guizhou were flat; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat at 20,100 yuan/ton; Shanghai aluminum spot prices fell 0.91% to 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][29] 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.96% to 356,975 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 11.91% to 38,485 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, unchanged from June 26 [31][34] - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports increased, and the nine - port inventory rose by 19 tons to 2,449 tons; waste aluminum prices slightly decreased, and both imports and exports increased [37][44] - **Production and Sales**: In May 2025, alumina production was 748.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 382.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 576.2 tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; cast aluminum alloy production was 61.6 tons; aluminum alloy production was 164.5 tons, up 16.7% year - on - year [37][54][64] - **Market Demand**: The real estate market slightly declined, with the housing market sentiment index falling; infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [67][70] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient, but due to profit - related issues, there may be production cuts. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. The fundamentals are in a state of relatively stable supply and reduced demand during the off - season [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 20,465 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.33%, closing at 2,890 yuan/ton. Cast Aluminum (SHFE Cast Aluminum) trended strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.08%, closing at 19,640 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: For alumina, supply may decrease slightly, and demand remains stable. For electrolytic aluminum, supply will increase slightly, and demand will decrease during the off - season. For cast aluminum alloy, both supply and demand are weak [7][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For SHFE Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices. For Alumina, conduct light - position range - bound trading. For SHFE Cast Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices [8][10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum futures fell 1.89% to 20,465 yuan/ton; LME Aluminum rose 0.24% to 2,525.5 dollars/ton; Alumina futures rose 0.67% to 2,998 yuan/ton; SHFE Cast Aluminum futures rose 1.08% to 19,640 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Open Interest**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum open interest increased by 7.3% to 647,102 lots, and the net position of the top 20 increased by 14,639 lots to 4,602 lots [19]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,380 yuan/ton, and the copper - aluminum futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 57,525 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) remained unchanged. SHFE Aluminum spot prices decreased [27][30]. - **LME Premium**: As of June 19, 2025, the LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread was - 0.03 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton from June 12 [29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.99%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 5.02%, and domestic social inventory decreased by 3.05%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 10.69%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [35]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. The total import volume of bauxite increased, and port inventory rose [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: Scrap aluminum quotes remained flat, imports increased, and exports decreased [44]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. In April 2025, imports decreased, and exports increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased. In April 2025, imports increased year - on - year [50][54]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum products increased, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased [64]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly [67]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: In 2024 (January - May), infrastructure investment increased. In May 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound and under pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

专题报告 2025-06-16 铝：近期行情几个关注点 报告要点： 近期铝市场在国内外现货收紧和能源价格上涨等因素推动下，打破了一段时间以来的沉寂，沪 铝增仓上行，伦铝也录得一定的上涨。站在当前看，铝市场在多重因素影响下，预计波动仍较 大，未来行情存在几个需要注意的点：一是海外地缘局势引起的成本端变化；二是国内铝库存 变化及沪铝期货月差变化；三是美国加征铝关税后海外市场变化。 综合来看，中国和伦敦市场铝锭库存均处于低位，铝价向上弹性仍偏大，中东地缘局势升级忧 虑下能源价格存在进一步上涨的风险，铝价可能跟随冲高。不过考虑到国内现货需求转弱，以 及中期需求面临的下滑风险，沪铝挤仓风险趋于下降；海外铝供需取决于美国高铝价和需求之 间的博弈，如果美国需求较为刚性，则海外铝现货预计维持偏紧，而如果高铝价挤出了铝消费， 则美国以外铝供应将边际宽松，从而抑制铝价的上方空间。 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 铝 铝：近期行情几个关注点 近期铝市场在国内外现货收紧和能源价格上涨等因素推动下，打破了一段时间以 ...