Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - New season global sugar surplus estimates mostly increased, Thailand and India's sugar production recovery has a key impact on the supply side, with India expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, initially estimated at 2 million tons [2] - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase [2] - China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2] - Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises are mostly in a "suspended import" state, and it is expected that syrup imports will be restricted again, which is positive for the domestic market, and there is support below the short - term sugar price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 379,832 lots, a decrease of 11,203 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,541, a decrease of 84; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,862 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2] 产业情况 - The national sugar sales rate was 89.98%, an increase of 1%; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total Brazilian sugar export volume was 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2] 行业消息 - Rabobank reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 39.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season and 39.5 - 42.1 million tons in the 2026/27 season [2] - ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Wednesday, hitting a nearly five - year low during the session. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.05 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.42 cents per pound. The new season's global sugar surplus estimates are mostly raised [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: SR601 closed at 5479 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.22%, with a position reduction of 10,429 contracts; SR605 closed at 5437 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.28%, with a position increase of 995 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 7452 contracts; US Sugar 05 closed at 15.89 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.57%, with a position increase of 3069 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly on Friday, while Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. Domestic spot prices in production areas slightly declined. Zhengzhou sugar has entered the pre-holiday adjustment period, with reduced volatility as funds seek risk aversion. Speculative short positions slightly decreased after the market [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: Minas Gerais will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, with a decline in total output. As of the first half of September, the state had crushed 58.2 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output this season, a decrease of about 4.5% compared to the 2024/25 season. Analysts expect the sugar output in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons, with a 6.8% increase in sugarcane crushing volume to 45.92 million tons, but a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sugar content per ton of sugarcane to 153.84 kg. Ethanol output is expected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.37 billion liters [9] - Pakistan: The floods in 2025 have severely damaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million acres of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Major crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn have been severely affected [9] - Global Sugar Market: StoneX expects a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. Improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset the expected decline in Europe [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][22]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5478 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.35%, with a position of 427,474 contracts, a decrease of 3,875 contracts [7] - SR605 closed at 5442 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 0.38%, with a position of 66,060 contracts, an increase of 1,699 contracts [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 16.29 cents/pound, up 0.16 cents or 0.99%, with a position of 466,347 contracts, an increase of 1,067 contracts [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 15.82 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.64%, with a position of 134,435 contracts, a decrease of 535 contracts [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, with the main March contract up 0.99% to 16.29 cents/pound [7] - London ICE white sugar futures' main December contract rose 0.9% to $462.90/ton [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. The 01 contract closed at 5478 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.35%, with a reduction of 3,875 contracts [8] - The spot price in domestic producing areas remained flat, with Nanning sugar at 5860 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5720 yuan [8] - Typhoon "Hagasa" had little impact on the main sugarcane areas in Guangxi, and the bullish sentiment dissipated [8] - After the market, speculative short positions were slightly reduced, possibly to reduce position risks before the long holiday [8] 3. Industry News - S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey showed that the sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons [9] - The cane crushing volume was expected to increase by 6.8% to 45.92 million tons, while the sugar content (ATR) in cane was expected to decline by 3.9% to 153.84 kg per ton of cane [9] - Ethanol production was expected to decrease by 3.4% to 2.37 billion liters [9] - StoneX reported that the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season starting in October was expected to have a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons [9] - Global sugar production was estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption was expected to be 194.7 million tons [9] - Brazil's shipping agency Williams data showed that as of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week [9] - The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presented various figures including spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions [11][14][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, with signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit from out - of - quota imports remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise due to the hot summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down, and the new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the main contract position was 322,832 lots, up 7,392 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,931, down 173; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 26,523 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,561 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,579 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,796 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,819 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou it was 6,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, up 0.2347 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,322 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,304 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 87 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 64 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.4%, down 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.37%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.96%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.31%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, China's sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.66% last Friday, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.42% on Monday. The sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil in the second half of July decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 3.614 million tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-to-ethanol ratio is rising, leading to strong expectations of reduced production for the new season, while markets anticipate increased production from India and Thailand, which is suppressing sugar prices [1] Group 1: Production and Market Dynamics - Brazil's sugar production progress is slow, with a significant decline in the crushing volume, down 20.24% year-on-year to 76.714 million tons as of mid-May 2025/26 [1] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi has improved, with cumulative sugar sales reaching 4.6453 million tons by the end of May, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, and a production-to-sales ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points [1] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts an ending stock of 4.8 to 5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in late 2025, despite a decline in production this season [1] Group 2: Import and Export Trends - China has suspended imports of Thai sugar syrup and premixed powder, although Thailand has expressed willingness to rectify the situation [1] - Sugar imports in May reached 350,000 tons, an increase of 333,100 tons year-on-year, indicating a favorable profit window for imports outside of quotas [1] - The import of sugar syrup and premixed powder in May was 64,200 tons, a significant decrease of 150,700 tons year-on-year, marking the second-lowest level for the same period in five years [1] Group 3: Future Production Expectations - Analysts predict a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching 46 million tons [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - India's early monsoon rains are anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, potentially reaching around 35 million tons [1]