Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-to-ethanol ratio is rising, leading to strong expectations of reduced production for the new season, while markets anticipate increased production from India and Thailand, which is suppressing sugar prices [1] Group 1: Production and Market Dynamics - Brazil's sugar production progress is slow, with a significant decline in the crushing volume, down 20.24% year-on-year to 76.714 million tons as of mid-May 2025/26 [1] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi has improved, with cumulative sugar sales reaching 4.6453 million tons by the end of May, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, and a production-to-sales ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points [1] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts an ending stock of 4.8 to 5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in late 2025, despite a decline in production this season [1] Group 2: Import and Export Trends - China has suspended imports of Thai sugar syrup and premixed powder, although Thailand has expressed willingness to rectify the situation [1] - Sugar imports in May reached 350,000 tons, an increase of 333,100 tons year-on-year, indicating a favorable profit window for imports outside of quotas [1] - The import of sugar syrup and premixed powder in May was 64,200 tons, a significant decrease of 150,700 tons year-on-year, marking the second-lowest level for the same period in five years [1] Group 3: Future Production Expectations - Analysts predict a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching 46 million tons [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - India's early monsoon rains are anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, potentially reaching around 35 million tons [1]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 05 月 20 日 白糖：9 月合约定价的锚点 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 报告导读： 国际市场方面，市场处于强现实弱预期格局。驱动方面，24/25 榨季全球市场市场供应短期量较大， 现实仍偏强；25/26 榨季全球食糖市场维持增产累库的预期，预期偏弱。估值方面，虽然纽约原糖价格已 经自高位明显下跌，但是相对其他主要农产品价格估值依然偏高。 国内市场方面，定价锚点切换至配额外进口成本。CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季中国食糖市场产销差为 465 万吨，25/26 榨季为 470 万吨。无论是 24/25 榨季，还是 25/26 榨季，即使配额内进口量持平，基于政 策上收紧糖浆和预拌粉进口的情况下，市场都需要配额外进口量来填补供应缺口，定价锚点切换至配额外 进口成本。 SR2509 合约先交易预期，后交易现实。对于 SR2509 合约而言，由于距离交割仍有较长的时间，上 市至今 SR2509 合约主要是预期定价为主，且随着时间的推移，价格与配额外进口成本联动更加紧密。不 过，随时 SR2509 合约日趋临近交割， ...