1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the sugar industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it is recommended to wait and see for now [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry News**: - As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons the previous week [9] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons [9] - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season has reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [9] - In the second half of December 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. Sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [9] - In December, the national sugar production was 2.63 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. In December, the sugar sales volume was 1.22 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales volume was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait and see for now. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: - The basis is 82 yuan/ton, the monthly spread of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 is - 16 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 90 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 90 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 3.09 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4,007 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 4,971 yuan/ton [10] - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report provides the price trend chart of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis chart of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spread**: It includes the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spread, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread charts [20][21][23] - **Domestic - Foreign Spread**: It shows the charts of out - of - quota spot import profit and out - of - quota on - disk import profit [24][25] - **Raw Sugar Monthly Spread**: It provides the spread charts of raw sugar 5 - 7, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 [26][27][30] - **Raw - White Sugar Spread**: It shows the spread charts of raw - white sugar 5 - 5 and raw - white sugar 3 - 3 [32][33] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premium and Discount**: It provides the premium and discount charts of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar [34][35] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuation**: It shows the chart of the production advantage of raw sugar compared with Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio chart [37][38] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report provides the monthly and cumulative sugar production charts in China [42][43] - **Sugar Imports**: It includes the monthly and annual cumulative sugar import volume charts, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volume charts of syrup and premixed powder [45][46][48] - **National Sales Volume**: It provides the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress charts [50][51] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory charts [53][54] 3.4 International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume charts in central - southern Brazil [58][59][61] - **India's Production**: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in India [63][64] - **Thailand's Production**: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in Thailand [66][67] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [69][70]

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 . // 结 25/26榨季全球食糖市场已由短缺转为过剩，印度产量大幅增加与泰国、巴西产量下降形成对比，但整体供应端压力仍在。 国内现货价格坚挺与期货价格弱势形成矛盾。春节前备货需求对价格形成短期支撑,在生产成本支撑下,短期或有一定上 行空间,但上方空间有限。 国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ---- 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - -- 23/24 24/25 800 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 ·2019 · =2020 2016 2017 = =2018 = 0 2025 2022 2024 10月 11月 12月 9月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 郑糖5-9月差 柳州-05基差 1200 350 1000 300 800 250 600 200 400 150 200 100 50 0 -400 -50 -100 -150 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is difficult for India to export, and the raw sugar is in a sideways shock. The domestic sugar price may bottom out in the short - term due to the support at the 5000 mark and downstream procurement for the Spring Festival [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded. The main March contract rose 2.56% to 14.85 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract rose 2.3% to $425.50 per ton. India plans to boost sugar exports, but the current international sugar price makes it difficult to achieve [7] - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. The 05 contract closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, up 49 yuan or 0.95%, with a reduction of 9,688 positions. The new domestic sugar price was lowered. The fundamentals remained unchanged, with ample spot supply suppressing the sugar price. After the futures fell below 5,100, short - selling funds stopped suppressing the 05 contract, and downstream manufacturers began to stock up at low prices, so the sugar price may bottom out in the short - term [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - **Philippines**: The Philippines will extend the sugar import ban until December 2026 to protect the local sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The domestic raw sugar output in the 2024/2025 season exceeded 2 million tons, higher than the expected 1.7 million tons, and the output in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be the same as the previous season [9] - **India**: The 2025 - 26 sugar season has strong production. As of December 15, 2025, the national sugar output reached 7.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 28%. The number of operating sugar mills increased slightly, and the sugar yield improved in major sugar - producing states [9] 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and their changes of SR601, SR605, US sugar 03, and US sugar 05 are presented [7] - **Position Data of the Top 20 Seats of the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes of the top 20 seats are provided [21]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Report Title**: 2026 Annual Resource Product Strategy Report [1] - **Report Institute**: Everbright Futures Research Institute [2] - **Report Date**: December 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE raw sugar futures price declined by 21.62% throughout the year due to the global sugar production entering a bumper - harvest cycle. The price fluctuated between 14 - 20 cents/lb [7][11]. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with an annual decline of 9.41%. The price of the main contract fluctuated between 5330 - 6200 yuan/ton [7][14]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: Globally, the 2025/26 sugar - making season has abundant supply. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a slight decrease in cane crushing volume but a 2.09% increase in sugar production due to a high sugar - making ratio. The estimated sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be flat or slightly higher. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 3435 million tons of sugar, with a net output of 3095 million tons after deducting ethanol production. In Thailand, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 1140 million tons of sugar, and exports are expected to return to 600 million tons. Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to recover, with an estimated output of 1170 million tons [8][19][50][70][90]. - **Demand**: Globally, sugar consumption is mediocre. Domestically, sugar consumption lacks highlights and has a weakening effect on price support [8][110]. - **Price**: Internationally, the raw sugar price is expected to operate at a medium - low level, with the main operating range between 13.5 - 19.5 cents/lb. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the main operating range of futures prices between 5100 - 5700 yuan/ton [8][111][113]. Group 3: Cotton Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE cotton futures price was affected by tariffs throughout the year, with the main contract price operating between 60.8 - 69.75 cents/lb. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was also affected by tariffs, with the main contract price operating between 12315 - 14375 yuan/ton [116]. 2026 Market Analysis - **International Market**: Macroeconomic disturbances continue, with supply slightly exceeding demand. Key factors to focus on include the interest - rate cut rhythm, geopolitical conflicts, US cotton exports, and new - year planting intentions. The estimated operating range of ICE cotton is 60 - 75 cents/lb [117][212]. - **Domestic Market**: The inflation data is gradually rising month - on - month. The 2026/27 cotton production may decline, providing support for cotton prices. The estimated operating range of domestic cotton futures prices is 13500 - 15500 yuan/ton [117][214]. Group 4: Urea Market 2025 Market Review - **Supply**: The industry's new production capacity in 2025 was 591 million tons, with the production capacity base exceeding 80 million tons. The annual output was about 7171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88%. - **Demand**: The annual consumption was about 6220 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. - **Price**: The futures and spot prices were at five - year lows, and the annual export volume was expected to be close to 500 million tons [218]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The industry's production capacity growth rate in 2026 will reach 10.82%, and the annual output may be close to 7600 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.82%. - **Demand**: Agricultural consumption is still the core area, with a growth rate of about 5% in 2026, driving the annual consumption to about 6834 million tons. - **Price**: The central operating range of urea futures prices in 2026 will continue to move down slightly, with the main operating range around 1650 ± 200 yuan/ton [219][295]. Group 5: Soda Ash and Glass Market 2025 Market Review - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity increased by 15.37%, the output growth rate slowed to 1.69%, the demand decreased by 2.88% to about 3422 million tons, and the export volume was expected to exceed 210 million tons. The main - contract futures price continuously reached new lows since listing. - **Glass**: The annual output was 5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 7%. The annual consumption was about 5600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. The futures price once reached a ten - year low [297]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity growth rate will slow down to 0.58%, the output will increase by 5.6% to 4100 million tons, the demand will decrease by 0.19% to about 3415 million tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 230 - 250 million tons. The central operating range of futures prices will move down to 1000 ± 200 yuan/ton. - **Glass**: The output will decrease by 2% to 5620 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 3% to about 5430 million tons, and the central operating range of futures prices is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [298].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **International Market**: The market is in a low - level consolidation phase. There is a weak expectation in the industry, with an anticipated restorative production increase and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the accelerated crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil and the expected significant increase in India's sugar production. Although sugar prices have dropped to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol is still pulling down the valuation. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's production and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - **Domestic Market**: It presents a situation of weak reality. The market expects a stable - to - increasing domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season, but the production cost in the Guangxi region has risen due to the decline in the sugar yield rate. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - **International Market**: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29), the WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%), and the price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). As of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots. As of November 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 610,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), and it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - **Domestic Market**: The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons), and the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 120,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons). The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - **International Market**: Low - level consolidation. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar will fluctuate weakly. Although sugar prices are at a phased low, the corn ethanol cost is still pulling down the valuation. Focus on Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's production and industrial policies [3][29]. - **Domestic Market**: Weak reality. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase steadily, but the production cost in Guangxi has risen due to the lower sugar yield. Zhengzhou sugar follows the raw sugar trend, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The out - of - quota import cost is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain high. Pay attention to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3.3 Macro Data - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29). - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%) [5]. 3.4 Price and Basis - The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 7,971 lots. According to the latest CFTC position report (New York raw sugar), as of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2,809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3,250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots, with a slight decrease in net long positions [9]. 3.5 Industry Data - Supply and Demand - **Global Supply and Demand**: The ISO expects a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. - **Brazil**: As of November 1, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 556 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; sugar production was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%; alcohol production was 26.95 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.91%; the cumulative ratio of sugar - producing cane was 51.97%, compared with 48.59% in the same period of the previous year. - **India**: As of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), with 3.4 million tons of sugar consumed for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons). - **Thailand**: The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. - **China**: The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that the sugar imports in October 2025 were 750,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's sugar production is strong, and the sugar production in the northern hemisphere, especially in India, is expected to increase significantly, with a possible rise in exports that could drag down sugar prices. However, Brazil's strong export data in October provides support to the market and may limit price declines [5]. - Domestic sugar market: The domestic sugar market is oscillating at a low level, supported by cost expectations and stricter policies on the control of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Currently, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is slightly undervalued compared to the spot price and cost, but it is still higher than the dynamic cost of out - of - quota imported sugar. The upcoming start of sugar production in southern China may bring phased supply pressure [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - **Spot price and basis in production areas**: The spot market mainly trades sugar from the 2024/25 crushing season, with relatively high prices. Newly - listed beet sugar is slightly cheaper than old sugar, and trading volume is low. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in Guangxi [11]. - **Inter - month spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - **Domestic and foreign spreads**: Due to low import costs, the processing profit margin of out - of - quota imported sugar is evident, and the in - quota import profit is substantial, exceeding 1,000 yuan [18]. 3.2 Overview of Key Market Data 3.2.1 International Market - **Brazil**: Brazil's sugar production decreased on a two - week basis, but the sugar - to - cane ratio is high, and the cumulative sugar production exceeds market expectations. In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, but the appreciation of the real is unfavorable for exports. Thailand and India are about to start production, and expected production increases will bring pressure to the market [22][28][31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Production and consumption expectations**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to rise slightly. The October supply - demand report made no adjustments, but the impact of typhoons in southern sugar - cane producing areas from September to October should be noted [35][37]. - **Production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan**: The production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are turning bearish. The destocking speed in Yunnan has slowed down, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased, with the September import volume still expected to be higher year - on - year [39][41]. - **Import of syrup and pre - mixed powder**: Due to stricter policy control, the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is expected to decrease [43]. - **Downstream demand**: Downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either, and the downstream market lacks sufficient stimulation [46][49].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The international sugar market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is predicted to have a restorative increase in production, and the market is bearish in the long - term. The accelerated crushing progress in central - southern Brazil and the expected significant increase in India's sugar production will lead to a weakening trend in New York raw sugar [3][29]. - The domestic sugar market faces a situation of weak reality. Although the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase steadily, the decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi will likely raise production costs. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 99.55 (previous value 98.73), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.36 (previous value 5.38) [1][5]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $59.84 per barrel, a decrease of 1.71% [1][5]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.13 cents per pound, a decrease of 2.01%. The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5760 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5457 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan from last week, and the basis of the main contract has increased significantly. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 1120 million tons, consumption will be 1590 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons [11]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 7382 sheets [12]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3754 lots, short positions increased by 18708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22462 lots year - on - year to - 151598 lots, with a significant reduction in net long positions (suspension of release) [12]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season and 23 million tons in the 25/26 season [17]. - Brazil: As of October 16, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in central - southern Brazil was 525 million tons, a decrease of 2.78% year - on - year; sugar production was 36.02 million tons, an increase of 0.89% year - on - year; alcohol production was 25.04 billion liters, a decrease of 8.23% year - on - year; and the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 52.36%, compared with 48.74% in the same period last year [17]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 5.8 million tons year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), of which ethanol will consume 3.4 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [17]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.27 million tons year - on - year [18]. - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in September 2025, 550,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 4.63 million tons (-120,000 tons) [18]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Be cautious about the weakening trend of New York raw sugar and pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's production and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Focus on changes in import policies, especially considering the impact of import rhythm on Zhengzhou sugar prices [3][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market outlook: expected to be volatile and weak. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern, with an anticipated restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. Concerns about global consumption are raised due to the accelerated crushing progress in central - southern Brazil and a year - on - year decline in exports [3][30]. - Domestic market outlook: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase steadily, but the sugar yield in Guangxi has declined, leading to a likely rise in production costs. Zhengzhou sugar trends follow the international raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a high level [3][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [1][5]. - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%); the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [1][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Spot and futures prices: the spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,000 tons. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.98 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2][11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [3][30]. 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [5]. - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%) [5]. 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [12]. 3.4.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: the ISO predicts a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season [17]. - Brazil: as of October 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in central - southern Brazil is 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%; sugar production is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; alcohol production is 25.04 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production is 52.36%, compared with 48.74% in the same period of the previous year [17]. - India: as of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 sugar season is 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [17]. - Thailand: the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [18]. - China: the CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+ 100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In September 2025, sugar imports are 550,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons (- 120,000 tons) [18]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - New season global sugar surplus estimates mostly increased, Thailand and India's sugar production recovery has a key impact on the supply side, with India expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, initially estimated at 2 million tons [2] - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase [2] - China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2] - Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises are mostly in a "suspended import" state, and it is expected that syrup imports will be restricted again, which is positive for the domestic market, and there is support below the short - term sugar price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 379,832 lots, a decrease of 11,203 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,541, a decrease of 84; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,862 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2] 产业情况 - The national sugar sales rate was 89.98%, an increase of 1%; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total Brazilian sugar export volume was 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2] 行业消息 - Rabobank reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 39.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season and 39.5 - 42.1 million tons in the 2026/27 season [2] - ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Wednesday, hitting a nearly five - year low during the session. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.05 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.42 cents per pound. The new season's global sugar surplus estimates are mostly raised [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: SR601 closed at 5479 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.22%, with a position reduction of 10,429 contracts; SR605 closed at 5437 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.28%, with a position increase of 995 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 7452 contracts; US Sugar 05 closed at 15.89 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.57%, with a position increase of 3069 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly on Friday, while Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. Domestic spot prices in production areas slightly declined. Zhengzhou sugar has entered the pre-holiday adjustment period, with reduced volatility as funds seek risk aversion. Speculative short positions slightly decreased after the market [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: Minas Gerais will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, with a decline in total output. As of the first half of September, the state had crushed 58.2 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output this season, a decrease of about 4.5% compared to the 2024/25 season. Analysts expect the sugar output in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons, with a 6.8% increase in sugarcane crushing volume to 45.92 million tons, but a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sugar content per ton of sugarcane to 153.84 kg. Ethanol output is expected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.37 billion liters [9] - Pakistan: The floods in 2025 have severely damaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million acres of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Major crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn have been severely affected [9] - Global Sugar Market: StoneX expects a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. Improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset the expected decline in Europe [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][22]