Financial Performance & Guidance - Bank of America maintained its net interest income (NII) guidance despite better-than-expected loan growth and fewer expected rate cuts [1] - Bank of America's net interest income (NII) reached $148 billion in the current quarter [3] - Bank of America projects net interest income (NII) to be between $155 billion and $157 billion by the fourth quarter [3] - Bank of America anticipates a 6-7% increase in net interest income (NII) this year compared to last year, with momentum carrying into 2026 [5] Growth Drivers - Bank of America experienced 7% loan growth and 4% deposit growth over the last 12 months [4] - Bank of America emphasizes disciplined deposit and loan pricing as contributing factors to net interest income (NII) growth [4] Macroeconomic Perspective - An independent Federal Reserve (Fed) is crucial for the stability of the global economy, particularly for a large economy like the United States with over $30 trillion in debt [8][9] - A stable central bank is very important because of the size of the US economy [8]

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

number of key economic uh data releases coming this week. Today we get to CPI at 8:30 Eastern. Joining us now on the markets, Jeremy Seagull, professor ammeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and chief economist uh at Wisdom Tree.Wisdom. You got a lot of wisdom. Um we both remember the Dow under a thousand, I think.Jeremy. Yeah. You have you've always you've always been genetically predisposed to to liking the market. You've also been genetically predisposed to not li ...

Market Trends & Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high just shy of $112,000 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs are seeing billions of dollars flowing in [1] - Bitcoin-related companies like Block and MicroStrategy are rising [1] Currency & Dollar Weakness - The dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date [3] - Lower front-end interest rates, reallocation out of the US, and hedging are driving dollar weakness [4][5] - The dollar's decline may continue due to allocation shifts and historical trends [6][7] - The dollar is at roughly fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value [6] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Expectation of less Fed independence is causing a change in Fed funds expectations next year, with the market expecting significantly lower interest rates around May/June [10] - Less Fed independence is causing slightly higher longer-term inflation expectations [10] - Foreign investors holding US treasuries in very short tenor bonds (three years and less) may let them expire, impacting demand [12] Treasury & Stablecoins - Relaxing the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) could help Treasury demand [14] - Increased demand for stablecoins, backed by Treasury bills, could help short-end demand but steepen the yield curve [14][15] - The long end of the yield curve, impacting mortgage rates and business loans, will be hard for the Treasury to control [15] Equity Markets & Valuation - US stocks are fairly richly valued at 22 times 12-month forward price earnings, especially versus peers overseas [17] - Concentration and bullishness are increasing in equity markets [18] - Higher inflation and significantly slower growth are expected later this year [19]

So if the US economy came to you as a patient and you were looking over all the data, the jobs, inflation, all of it, what would you tell this economy. What kind of checkup does it get. The economy is like a middle-aged man who's really smart and well earning and has a lot of good years ahead of him, but maybe could lose 10 pounds or maybe even 15 or 20 pounds.This is hitting very close to home, Alison. You got a lot of potential. There's still a lot of great things you're going to do.You're pretty much lik ...

tradfi assets. >> A follow up this morning to a question we asked during the first Trump administration are the president's social media posts criticizing Fed Chair Jay Powell and the central bank driving down interest rates. Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman is here and looking at the bond rally and presidential pressure on Powell.Stupid mule, I guess is the latest salvo. >> I didn't see that one. >> You didn't see stupid.>> Last night or. Last week. Last week we looked at all of them.Maybe we. Maybe ...

“Fed independence derives from important statutory protections,” explains a former vice-chair of the central bank. In a guest essay he warns that potential threats to that autonomy come from two sources https://t.co/cEoQY9Pvjc ...

The direction of the Fed next year. You already see record futures wagers in the market, with a lot of investors betting that the next Fed chair will be dovish. But given where we are right now, given the concerns about inflation, especially on the heels of all of this geopolitical tension, do you think that because the president wants lower rates, that the central bank can deliver them.Because I think the big question is, is the president going to appoint a shadow Fed chair. Right. There's a lot of talk th ...

I'm trying to work out whether the Bessen and the and the reporting that maybe he's going to be considered for Fed chair after after Powell is good news for the markets or a risk for the markets given how well many within the markets think he's handled that tension between being loyal to Trump and executing the tariff regime and those of course negotiations with the trading partners. Yeah, he's he's definitely seen by the market as a safe pair of hands, but again what you just said there, he's seen as very ...

ISSUE 139 | May 15, 2025 | 11:35 AM EDT FED INDEPENDENCE: HOW CONCERNING? President Trump's public criticism of the Fed and, more importantly, his attempts to turn words into action by setting in motion a challenge to the landmark ruling that has prevented presidents from removing officials of independent agencies without cause have raised serious concerns about Fed independence. We talk to former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane, and GS' Jan Hatzius and Joseph Briggs, ...