Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG industry are still weak overall, with expected overall growth in supply, some support for Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - On June 3, 2025, compared with the previous day, in the civil gas sector, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4580, in East China increased by 3 to 4508, and in South China decreased by 30 to 4680; ether - post - carbon four increased by 70 to 4710; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4508. FEI import cost rose, CP import cost fell, PP rose slightly, FEI - made PP profit increased, and CP - made PP profit decreased. The PG futures price rose significantly, mainly driven by oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 77 to 436; the 07 - 09 spread increased by 14 to 164. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly View - Civil gas prices showed regional differentiation, with prices rising in Shandong, falling in South China, and remaining stable in East China. Ether - post - C4 prices fell, and the price of the cheapest deliverable (East China civil gas) was 4505 yuan/ton. The PG futures price fluctuated upward from Monday to Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday due to falling oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 spreads also strengthened. In the overseas market, FEI and MB prices fell slightly, while CP prices rose slightly; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) US dollars. Fundamentally, port arrivals increased slightly, chemical demand improved, but civil gas sales were sluggish, leading to overall port inventory reduction; refinery inventories increased. In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased by 2.46%, and further increases are expected; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11 pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP were similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week. The operating rate and commercial volume of alkylation increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise next week. MTBE prices first rose and then fell, and MTBE production remained basically flat. The profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some restocking demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand. In addition, as the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]