中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 最新动态 I > 共同区 基本面情况 Fi Free 风 文学 风险因素：油价波动; 宏观政策变动; 极端天气。 图表 1: FEI丙烷-MOJP石脑油价差 2025年10月9日，LPG期货在假期后大幅低开，盘中进一步承压运行，早间收盘主力合约下跌幅度达5.61%。 (1) 9月30日沙特阿美公司10月CP公布，丙烷为49美元吨，较上月跌25美元吨，丁烷为475美元吨，较上月跌15美元吨。假期期间11月CP掉期合约继续下行，其中丙烷合约由9月30日 520元/吨下跌至10月8日476美元/吨脱近。OPEC+处于墙产周期目美国交音法气量韧性的持续风。使得购外毕生气供应压力刷刷，沙特OP价格下调格占市场领导模应压力的机构。但下 调幅度超出市场预期。 (2) 国内炼厂开工率仍偏高，LPG外放量相对充裕，但国内民用气现货在假期期间较为稳定，国内因素不是期价下跌的主因。 供应骗，国内练厂与价值量企季节出提升期，海外伴生气管产周期仍在延续，沙特、阿联酋、阿仅秋亚属于OPEC+ 增产8回，3个国家合计的LPO发运量与 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by Trump's signal of trade talks, the US market rose significantly. After a sharp emotional decline, the domestic market rebounded. It is expected that the overall impact on import costs will be limited under the offset of the rising US market. MO1 is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of the August supply - demand report this week and the subsequent import situation of Argentine soybean meal [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure reduction in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [7]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly this week [7][8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides a large amount of data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures contracts in different regions, as well as the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the import soybean crushing profit and other price - related data [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].

Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, Saudi Aramco's July CP was released, showing an unexpected decline. Propane was at $575/ton (-$25), and butane was at $545/ton (-$25), leading to a significant reduction in import costs. Domestic LPG production decreased slightly, and international vessel arrivals dropped. Civilian demand remained seasonally weak, while the chemical industry's demand showed mixed trends. Next week, civilian demand is expected to stay weak, and the chemical industry's overall start - up rate may be boosted in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor OPEC+ production increases, downstream device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane decreased by $25/ton. Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons, a slight reduction of 0.06%. Civilian gas production was 229,600 tons (-0.39%), and ether - after production was 163,300 tons (-0.55%). International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons (-18.82%), and arrivals are expected to increase next week. Civilian combustion demand was seasonally weak. PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.05% (+0.66%). Civilian gas prices declined slightly, while ether - after C4 prices rose significantly. Next week, civilian demand will remain weak, and the chemical industry's start - up rate may be boosted [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - The report presents data on LPG futures and spot prices, including LPG main contracts, APS propane main contracts, and AFE propane main contracts. It also shows the LPG forward curve, APS propane forward curve, and AFE propane forward curve. Additionally, it provides information on price differences such as PG08 - 09, PG08 - 05, APS propane main - continuous one, etc. Regional quotes, premiums, discounts, and freight rates are also covered, including historical data on US - to - Far - East freight, Middle - East - to - Far - East freight, etc. [7][11][12] 3.3 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports to Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [29][30][31]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It presents historical data on Middle - East LPG exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [35][36][37]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons (-0.06%). Propane supply in China was 545,400 tons, a 17.07% decrease. Domestic refinery production was 46,400 tons, a 7.91% increase. International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons, mainly in Shandong. Inventory data for East China, South China, and Shandong are also provided [44][47][48]. 3.4 Demand - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.06% (+0.66%). The report also shows historical data on alkylation profit, domestic PDH operating rate, MTBE traditional profit, etc. [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all generally positive, with an "oscillatingly strong" reference view for the short - term [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The growth of US soybean oil's bio - fuel demand continues to boost US soybean crushing consumption. However, good US crop weather and the expectation of a Brazilian harvest limit the upside of US soybean futures prices. The market focus will shift to the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. The trading logic of the soybean meal market revolves around import costs, and short - term soybean meal futures prices may rebound following US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil has seen a strong rebound. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil lead to a stronger expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in June. The rising Malaysian palm oil prices support domestic palm oil futures prices. With continuous inflow of market funds, the short - term oscillatingly strong trend of palm oil futures prices is expected to continue [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].