All right, we got to talk to you about it. Um, shutdown just in in its ninth day. Uh, we got that data from Moody's that we always bring up.For every week of the government shutdown, quarterly GDP is impacted by a tenth of a percent. What's the impact on the manufacturing sector. Are there certain parts of it that are impacted more than others.Well, I think overall, Frank, the business community in general, but certainly manufacturing depends on certainty and uh having this kind of uncertain time where we d ...

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Outlook - The World Trade Organization has reduced its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5% from 1.8%, attributing this to the anticipated lagged effects of U.S. tariffs [1] - Economic data indicates that U.S. consumer credit rose by only $0.36 billion in August, significantly below the expected $12.90 billion [2] - Germany's industrial production fell by 4.3% month-over-month in August, much worse than the expected decline of 1.0% [11] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Movements - Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed lower, with notable declines in chip stocks such as Lam Research and Applied Materials, both dropping over 5% [4] - Homebuilder stocks also faced a downturn after Evercore ISI downgraded the sector, with D.R. Horton falling more than 6% [4] - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index increased by 0.36%, driven by gains in mining and bank stocks, while automobile stocks, particularly BMW, fell over 7% due to lowered earnings guidance [9][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Fed officials are divided on the urgency of further rate cuts, with the FOMC having cut interest rates last month for the first time this year [6][7] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran supports continued easing of policy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warns that sharp cuts could fuel inflation [2] Group 4: Corporate News and Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices rose over 1% in pre-market trading after an upgrade from DZ Bank [14] - Penguin Solutions tumbled over 22% in pre-market trading due to weaker-than-expected revenue and below-consensus guidance for FY26 [15]

Core Insights - The U.S.-China relationship is entering a critical phase as the Trump administration aims for a more favorable trade policy with China [1] - The U.S. has leverage in trade discussions due to its strength in aircraft engines, parts, and certain chemicals, which are essential for China [1] - Companies in aerospace and semiconductor sectors may experience both risks and opportunities due to the shifting policy environment [2] Aerospace Sector - The U.S. holds a significant advantage in the aerospace industry, as aircraft engines and parts are not easily substituted, making China reliant on U.S. and European manufacturers for aviation technology [3] - This reliance could lead to increased government support for American aerospace companies through contracts or preferential trade treatment, enhancing investor confidence [3] Semiconductor Sector - The production of high-performance semiconductors is currently concentrated in Taiwan, posing a risk to the global economy [4] - The U.S. is actively working to boost domestic semiconductor production, with the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act allocating over $52 billion to enhance capabilities [4] - Companies involved in domestic chip production, materials, and equipment may benefit from new capital inflows as a result of these initiatives [5] Risks for Companies Tied to China - Businesses that are heavily dependent on China for exports or critical inputs face vulnerabilities and potential disruptions due to the changing trade dynamics [6]

[Music] [Music] The Trump administration may roll out what it calls substantial support for American farmers who have suffered losses due to trade policy. Now, let's hear directly from the farm. Blake Hurst joins us.He is former president of the Missouri Farm Bureau and a farmer. Blake, welcome to the show. Um, I want to start off kind of bigger picture, Blake, because I'm curious to hear how the American farm economy is doing right now, Blake.You know, broadly, how is it is it holding up. What is your sens ...

And welcome back to Squawkbox. Our exclusive Q3 CFO survey is back with insights from the biggest corporate financial decision makers. Managing risk always top of mind.26% said US trade policy that's the biggest risk to their business. Also the top answer. You can see here consumer demand a close second at 22%.We also asked their views on a possible recession. Wide range of answers here. More than 7%.They see a recession still being a possibility this year. Roughly half see the potential for a major economi ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, leading to discussions and speculation about future rate cuts in 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made a significant decision to cut rates, marking a notable shift in monetary policy [2]. - There is a high expectation for further rate cuts in 2025, creating uncertainty in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Conditions - The current market environment is described as both opportunistic and dangerous, with a focus on managing risk rather than following crowd behavior [5][6]. - A significant concentration of wealth in a few stocks is noted, with nearly $4 out of every $10 in an S&P 500 Index ETF invested in just 10 stocks, raising concerns about market stability [6]. - The job market's weakness is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, which could impact 401k inflows and overall market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Concerns - Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, particularly tariff issues, is seen as a barrier to confident investment decisions [6]. - There are lingering concerns about the reliability of non-U.S. buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, which have historically supported U.S. debt [6].

Tariff Strategy & Trade Policy - The administration's entire tariff strategy is questioned if the Supreme Court doesn't rule in its favor [1] - The president possesses various other authorities, including 232s, 301s, and 338s, to implement trade policies [5][6] - Existing trade deals with Japan and Europe, covering autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, are expected to remain durable [5][6] - Europe is reportedly paying the US 15% while US exporters pay zero, indicating an asymmetric trade relationship [7] - Japan has allocated $550 billion for projects aligned with the president's objectives, such as bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to the US [8] Economic Growth & Investment - Over $500 billion a year is reportedly coming in, potentially due to the president's policies [6] - CEOs have reportedly committed an additional $600 billion in investment in America [19] - The economy is projected to experience significant growth in the coming months, driven by investments in plants and factories [16][17] - The current GDP growth is at 3%, with expectations for continued growth throughout the year [17] Data Credibility & Agency Alignment - There are concerns about the credibility of jobs numbers following changes in leadership at the BLS [10] - The administration aims to remove individuals perceived as being against the president to ensure accurate data reporting [15] - The goal is to have agencies aligned with the president's agenda to provide correct numbers and support America's success [12][13]

All right, President Trump signing an executive order Thursday that will allow tariffs on auto and other imports from Japan to be coming in at much lower rates, 15% versus the 25 to 27 1.5%. Uh joining us right now to talk about this is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and SE Secretary Lutnik, thank you for being with us today. Let's walk through how this kind of played out and what the specific details are in this agreement. All right. So the Japanese in order to buy down their tariff rate, so they had a 2 ...

Trade Policy & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's AIPA tariffs, which account for a significant portion of the $180 billion+ collected by the government this fiscal year [3] - A ruling against the tariffs could force the Trump administration to offer refunds, potentially causing chaos [3][4] - Experts note that a rapid decision from the Supreme Court is rare, usually requiring a hard deadline [6] - The Supreme Court may side with lower courts, finding that the president lacks the authority to impose these tariffs under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act [9][10] - A base case scenario suggests a 50-65% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the president's authority [12] Potential Economic Impact - Sectors like furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, and semis could be aggressively hit if the AIPA authority is overruled [13][14] - Domestic importers, like those selling learning materials and companies like John Deere and Caterpillar, want refunds with interest if the tariffs are deemed illegal [17] - Refunds could amount to roughly $150 billion to $300 billion, creating a complicated process for the Treasury [18] - If the Supreme Court rejects the tariffs, Trump could still implement tariffs on specific sectors or pursue Section 301 investigations, similar to those already in place on $350 billion worth of goods from China [19][20] - Congress could grant the president the authority to tariff every single import, potentially costing the average family $2,700 per year [21] Tech Industry & White House - President Trump is hosting top business, political, and tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Tim Cook, at the White House [23][25] - The event is being called the "Rose Garden Club" and is seen as a way for Trump to showcase the remodeled Rose Garden patio [26][27]

'All risk, no reward': China spectacle shows dangers of Trump trade policy https://t.co/8eE2Qr66fL ...