Trade Agreement & Market Sentiment - Japan is committed to invest approximately $500 billion, though details are limited [1] - A new deal deadline of August 1st could reduce market uncertainty [2] - The Yen might strengthen, potentially making Japan a more attractive market for both domestic and US investors [3] - Investors are fairly sanguine, with some complacency evident [6] Investment Strategy & Diversification - International diversification, particularly in developed markets including Japan, is favored over emerging markets due to inherent risks [4] - Global diversification can accrue benefits compared to focusing solely on the US market [5] Recession & Market Risk - Bond traders and investors are considering the possibility of a recession [9] - Recession risk remains, especially if the labor market weakens [10] - There's increased risk due to potential negative catalysts, given the current complacency [8]

Trade Policy & Strategy - The Trump administration's trade policy is characterized by inconsistency, including tariff delays, unreleased deals, and contradictions between the President and his staff [1][2] - The administration initially imposed reciprocal tariffs, then paused them, and subsequently extended the deadline, creating uncertainty [2] - The administration's messaging on trade deals is inconsistent, with negotiators finalizing deals that the President later seeks to improve [3][4] - The administration aims to expedite trade negotiations, potentially leading to both gains and risks for the overall trade agenda [6] Tariffs & Deadlines - Reciprocal tariffs were initially imposed around April 2nd, then paused for 90 days, with a deadline set for July 9th, which was later extended [2] - The new deadline for tariffs was set for August 1st [2][5] Negotiation Tactics - The administration uses letters posted on Truth Social to announce tariff rates, while also suggesting potential adjustments based on how the US is treated [5] - The administration's approach aims to accelerate negotiations and potentially extract more concessions from other nations [6]

The outlook for trade policy remains in flux to start the week, as the European Union and Mexico become the latest to face new, higher tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. https://t.co/dOeLDbzYQg ...

Trade and Tariffs - Potential new tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting August 1st are being considered, primarily as a negotiating tactic to achieve broader policy goals beyond just trade [1][5] - The market impact of these potential tariffs on European markets has been limited, possibly because investors view them as temporary threats [3] - The shift from free trade to "friend trade" reflects a broader strategy of prioritizing close relationships in global trade [2] Earnings and Market Outlook - Earnings season is approaching, with a positive outlook expected later in the year, potentially boosted by a 10%+ move in the dollar [7] - AI is expected to drive cost reduction and margin improvement for smaller companies, potentially starting next year [8][11] - Tech and communication services are driving most of the earnings growth; without them, overall earnings growth would be negative [9] Investment Opportunities - Smaller value companies outside the Mag 7, trading at 13-14 times earnings, may benefit from AI adoption [11] - In Europe, investment opportunities exist in defense and infrastructure sectors due to increased spending [13][14] - In Asia, tech-oriented markets are preferred over goods-dependent markets due to potential tariff impacts [16][17] Market Valuation - The Mag 7 stocks are trading at approximately 31 times forward earnings, while the rest of the market is just under 21 times [9] - The earnings growth spread between the Mag 7 and the rest of the market is compressing, suggesting potential outperformance of smaller caps [10][11]

The big-bank earnings reports due this week mark the quasi-official start to the second-quarter earnings season. Analysts expect growth, but they’re also eyeing the effects of tariffs as President Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to evolve. https://t.co/8UsIstnwYB ...

Here in studio with me, NBC business and data correspondent Brian Chung and Ron Insano, CNBC senior analyst and commentator. So, let me read to you something from the New York Times. Ron, Mr.. Trump's efforts to use tariffs to intervene in a criminal trial in a foreign nation is an extraordinary example of how he views levies as a onesizefitsall cudgel. What is the message in that to other countries, to even the US about our trade policy. Well, there as far as we know, there's no statutory authority for the ...

US President Donald Trump has shifted his tariff deadline to August 1st, but Asia's export dependent economies are seeing little reprieve. In his first wave of letters, Trump hit Japan and South Korea with rates of 25%. And in Southeast Asia, the rates range from 25% for Malaysia to as high as 40% for smaller economies such as Laos and Myanmar.They're now left with about 3 weeks to negotiate lower rates before they come into effect. Trump has signaled he's open to negotiations. If they call with a different ...

Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint https://t.co/bWU5uDfHjD ...

US Economic Weekly Economics - North America Waiting game Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 June FOMC meeting – hawkish on net The June FOMC meeting was hawkish on net. The 2025 median rate projection was left unchanqed at two cuts, but the committee was highly divided with 10 participants expectinq 2 or 3 rate cuts this ...

Global Macro Research May 27th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMwGzXxb6rqz1qfzQpSq_KChQSSrQEzvkmQ}]} Overall summary US Rates International Rates DM yields sold off at the start of the week as US/China delivered a more constructive outcome than ...