加拿大央行：我们已经加强了我们的区域联系，以帮助了解关税的影响，并在对家庭和企业的调查中增 加了新的问题。 ...

今夜美联储7月利率决议，"维持利率不变"几乎板上钉钉，但市场的关注点早已转向主席鲍威尔的表 态：9月是否会降息？两位鸽派理事的罕见"异议"是否将打破共识？特朗普施压、经济数据放缓、关税 影响待解……一场暗流正在汹涌。 9月降息预期升温 美联储今年仅剩三次政策会议。据花旗经济学家Veronica Clark分析，基于6月美联储官员预测的中位数 显示今年将降息两次25个基点，这使得9月降息看起来很可能实现。 "一般官员仍处于观望模式，但9月是非常合理的，"Clark表示。 然而，银行政策研究所(Bank Policy Institute)首席经济学家Bill Nelson指出，关税对通胀的传导仍未完全 显现，鲍威尔可能会保持选择余地，直到对经济方向有更多清晰认识。在下次9月16-17日会议前，决策 者将看到两份就业报告和更多通胀、支出及住房数据。 根据联邦基金期货合约定价，投资者已将9月降息概率定价在60%以上。美联储官员可能不希望这一概 率在审查经济数据前进一步上升。 历史罕见的"官员异议"可能登场 分析认为，如果美联储在会后声明中继续将就业市场描述为"稳固"，可能引发担心美国就业形势更加脆 弱的官员投下反对票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting three distinct factions with differing views on when to implement such cuts [1][5][10]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a faction eager for immediate rate cuts due to concerns over the labor market, a middle group waiting for more data on tariff impacts, and a cautious faction preferring to see clear signs of economic weakness before acting [1][5][10]. - The middle camp, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the instability of inflation forecasts and the risks of waiting too long to cut rates, suggesting a need for further data analysis over the next two months [6][10]. - The more aggressive faction, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocates for immediate rate cuts, arguing that delaying action could worsen labor market conditions [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Signals and Political Pressure - The article notes that the internal divisions are exacerbated by inflation concerns stemming from tariff threats, which have previously led the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3]. - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts and has made public appearances to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9][10]. - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting that the economy may be strong enough to withstand current interest rates [11][12]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's internal debates, particularly Powell's comments during the upcoming press conference, for indications of a potential rate cut in September [14][15]. - Additional employment and inflation data over the next two months will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, especially for the middle camp that stresses the importance of this data in making informed policy choices [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with three distinct factions emerging among officials [1][2][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a minority eager for immediate rate cuts, a cautious middle group, and a more conservative faction advocating for a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The cautious middle group, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the need for more data to confirm the impact of tariffs on inflation before acting [2]. - The immediate rate cut advocates, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, argue that delaying action could worsen the labor market [2]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts [3][4]. - Trump's recent visit to the Fed's renovation site is seen as part of a broader effort to undermine Fed Chair Jerome Powell's position [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Signals - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting the economy can withstand current interest rates [4]. - Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan likens the Fed's decision-making process to a "super tanker," indicating that premature actions could have long-lasting repercussions [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - The market anticipates that while no immediate policy changes will occur, the Fed may signal a future shift in policy direction [5][6]. - Investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference for hints regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September [6].

三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 文章指出，虽然沃勒和鲍曼可能的反对票将成为五年来首次有FOMC会议出现"唱反调"的情况，并带来 新的头条新闻，但这实际上凸显了大多数美联储官员对过快行动的普遍谨慎态度，而非对其构成挑战。 保守派则采取了更加鹰派的立场，如亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）担心，关税 公告虽已出，但实际征收率低，价格压力可能在夏末才显现。 ...

Core Insights - Visa's CEO reported that consumer spending in the U.S. for the second quarter remains strong, indicating resilience in the economy despite external pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on consumer spending has been minimal, suggesting that economic fundamentals are holding steady [1] Group 1 - The second quarter spending growth in the U.S. is robust, reflecting positive consumer sentiment and economic activity [1] - Tariffs have not significantly affected spending patterns, indicating that consumers are continuing to engage in spending despite potential trade-related concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tapestry, Inc. stock has declined as analysts reassess its valuation despite the ongoing strength of the Coach brand, leading to a downgrade from Buy to Hold by Bank of America Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson, while raising the price forecast from $95 to $115 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Tapestry has traded at an average P/E of 13x over the past decade, currently sitting at the upper end of the range, which has influenced the downgrade to a Neutral stance [2]. - Hutchinson forecasts a solid fourth quarter with EPS of 98 cents, matching management's guidance, alongside expected sales growth of 5.4% and an operating margin of 16.4% [3]. - Fiscal year 2026 guidance will be closely monitored, with expectations for mid-single-digit sales growth and stable margins, balancing tariff-related pressures with SG&A efficiency [3]. Group 2: Brand Performance and Market Dynamics - The Coach brand continues to perform well due to effective marketing and premium product appeal, although management is not expected to forecast double-digit growth for the brand this year [4]. - There is potential for upside in fiscal year 2026 estimates, but limited long-term margin expansion is anticipated beyond Coach's current operating margin of 33.6% [4]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Profitability - Management is expected to maintain profitability over time despite tariff pressures, with a projected 60 basis points decline in gross margin for fiscal year 2026 due to tariffs, with full recovery anticipated by fiscal year 2027 [5].

欧盟输美商品将面临更高的15%关税税率，而英国此前已同意的征税税率为10%。 "理论上，英国是受益的，"Investec的首席经济学家Philip Shaw说，"欧盟新的15%关税意味着英国对美 国的出口变得相对便宜，这可能会促进英国与美国的贸易，因为美国公司会从英国而非欧盟购买商 品。" Lubbock Fine LLP的合伙人兼德国业务主管Alex Altmann在美欧协议宣布后不久发布的一份报告中也暗 示，由于关税税率较低，英国商品对美国消费者来说也会更便宜，这意味着他们可能更青睐英国产品， 而非欧盟制造的产品。 在欧洲各国的世界领导人和经济学家们消化美欧贸易协议的消息之际，一些专家认为，尽管这对欧盟来 说可能是个坏消息，但该协议可能为英国带来意外的提振。 他补充道，"英国较低的美国关税确实为欧盟公司将其部分生产基地转移到英国或扩大其现有的英国设 施提供了主要激励。" Altmann解释说，利润率较低的欧盟制造商尤其可能觉得搬到英国的想法很有吸引力，以避免这些利润 受到进一步挤压，他指出，由于英国脱欧，英国拥有闲置的制造能力。他补充道，"英国可能是这份协 议的一个巨大的间接赢家，" Dentons的国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, while discussions around potential rate cuts in the fall are intensifying due to pressures from the Trump administration and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 30, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates as more data is awaited regarding the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1]. - There is growing speculation about a possible rate cut in September, as indicated by futures markets, with observers closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the monthly employment report [1][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Some Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are likely to voice dissent regarding the current interest rate levels, citing rising employment risks [2]. - If both officials oppose the decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against the majority, with Waller being considered a potential successor to Powell [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent inflation reports show that while some goods have seen price increases due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that price pressures are not yet widespread [3]. - Economists are puzzled by the limited impact of tariffs on prices, attributing it to factors such as preemptive inventory increases and cost-sharing in supply chains [3]. Group 4: Powell's Communication Strategy - During the press conference, Powell is expected to address concerns about tariffs and inflation, likely emphasizing the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability while acknowledging recent positive data [4]. - Powell has faced significant pressure from the Trump administration, which may influence his responses, although he is anticipated to focus on economic issues rather than political pressures [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming week is critical for the market, with key events including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon and Apple, and important economic indicators such as GDP and non-farm payroll data [1][3] - Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel describes this week as a "truth moment" for the market, emphasizing the significance of the data flow in assessing investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and stock market [3] - The S&P 500 companies are generally exceeding expectations, with profits rising by 4.5% year-over-year, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [3][6] Group 2 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with expectations for a significant rebound in Q2 GDP following a contraction due to a surge in imports earlier in the year [7] - Analysts predict that consumer spending adjusted for inflation in June will show little to no growth, and hiring is expected to continue slowing down, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7][11] - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is anticipated to accelerate due to the impact of tariffs [7][11]