Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies, while expressing caution towards equities and bonds, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment, with a notable increase in global equity allocation from a net 4% overweight to over 25% overweight, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rates and earnings per share (EPS) as the primary drivers for risk assets, suggesting that other factors are secondary [13]. - The report notes that the US dollar is in a bear market, with expectations of a revaluation of gold reserves by central banks to alleviate domestic debt burdens, which could lead to a bullish outlook for gold in the coming decade [13][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Investor probability of an economic hard landing has fallen to 5% or below, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [14]. - The report indicates a consensus among clients that lower rates will lead to higher stock prices, with a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [14]. Market Performance - The report details the performance of various asset classes year-to-date, with gold at 30.3%, bitcoin at 25.5%, and stocks at 12.6%, while cash and commodities lag significantly [1]. - The report notes that the Russian ruble has appreciated by 42%, making it the best-performing currency against the US dollar in 2025 [2][15]. Investment Flows - There has been a significant inflow of $106.7 billion into cash, marking the largest inflow since January 2025, alongside $28.5 billion into bonds, indicating a cautious approach among investors [11][40]. - The report highlights that private clients have been buying utilities and bank loans while selling technology and healthcare stocks, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [12][46]. Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the concentration of returns in US stocks, particularly in technology, is expected to continue until credit spreads widen, which may signal a shift in market dynamics [4][20]. - The report also notes that defense and tech stocks are seen as relative losers in the current geopolitical climate, particularly in the context of the Middle East [2][4].

Group 1 - The article discusses Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and references a previous analysis from June 2024, indicating a positive alignment with Wall Street's views on the company [1] - Sensor Unlimited, the author, is an economist with a PhD, specializing in financial economics and has a decade of experience covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [2] - The focus of the analysis includes asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for saving among domestic depositors is increasing, with a significant rise in the total savings balance reaching 128.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.2% as of May 2025 [1] - The demographic of savers is shifting, with more young people now prioritizing savings to prepare for unexpected events like unemployment and illness, alongside rising risks in the domestic capital market [1] - There are four major issues that households with savings may face in the coming years: declining deposit interest rates, increasing difficulty in cash withdrawals, deposit rates failing to keep up with inflation, and a reluctance to invest [1] Group 2 - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, with the one-year deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.35%, resulting in a significant reduction in interest income for depositors [1] - The difficulty in cash withdrawals is increasing, requiring three days' notice and a statement of purpose for large withdrawals, which has led to dissatisfaction among depositors [4] - Deposit rates are not keeping pace with inflation, leading to a decline in the purchasing power of savings, although the current economic environment is experiencing a deflationary trend with a CPI of -0.1% [5] - Many depositors are hesitant to invest due to low bank interest rates and high risks associated with other investment options, with significant losses reported in the stock market and mutual funds [8]

Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - Monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques are provided to members [2] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [3] - The focus areas include asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new ETF-FOF product by China Europe Fund marks a significant development in the rapidly growing ETF market, which has surpassed 4 trillion yuan in scale this year, indicating a strong demand for innovative investment products [1][6]. Group 1: Product Details - The newly issued China Europe Active Multi-Asset Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed Fund (ETF-FOF) officially launched on May 13, with a subscription period ending on May 30, 2025, and a minimum total subscription amount of 200 million units [2]. - The product allocates over 80% of its assets to publicly offered funds approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with at least 80% of non-cash fund assets invested in ETFs [2]. - ETF-FOF serves as an innovative asset allocation tool, primarily investing in various types of ETFs to achieve diversified exposure across assets, industries, and regions [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The rapid development of ETF-FOF products is attributed to the maturity of the ETF market, which now includes a wide range of products across different risk levels, providing ample investment opportunities [4]. - Multiple public funds have reported ETF-FOF products this year, reflecting a growing recognition and optimism towards ETF and FOF investments [4][3]. - As of May 13, there are 28 FOF-LOF products in the market, with several ETF-FOF products already approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [5][6]. Group 3: Performance and Future Outlook - The performance of existing FOF-LOF products has been promising, with the highest annual return of 6.97% recorded by the ICBC Smart Progress One-Year Stock Type FOF as of May 12 [6]. - The top three holdings of public FOFs as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 were all ETFs, indicating a strong preference for ETF investments among fund managers [6]. - Industry experts predict that more ETF-FOF products will emerge in the future, driven by the evolving market landscape and diverse investor needs [6].

Market Reaction and Data Trust - The market is likely to react to the surprise in data, potentially leading to back and forth trading sessions [2][3] - The industry continues to trust the data, despite recent revisions and estimations in inflationary reports [5] - Every report needs scrutiny due to the coinciding turn in Fed policy, requiring an overall mosaic approach [6] Fed Policy and Labor Market - The Fed might have acted differently on rate policy with correct data, but full consensus for a cut last week was uncertain [8] - The market perceives the labor market as more important than inflation, a view telegraphed by the Fed [8][9] - Fears of the Fed being behind the curve are expected to escalate into September [9] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are considered more acute to the Fed historically [11] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to stay overly diversified, which has driven performance across risk spectrums this year [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and some foreign markets have been supportive [12][13] - The industry is constantly looking for opportunities to add or incrementally take down risk depending on the environment [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment strategies offered by Sensor Unlimited, focusing on high income and high growth through dynamic asset allocation [1][2] - Sensor Unlimited provides two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [1] - The company emphasizes direct access for discussions, monthly updates on holdings, and tax discussions related to investments [1] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a background in financial economics and has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry for the past decade [2] - The focus areas include asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recruitment for a capital market research position focusing on overseas and equity markets, highlighting the need for comprehensive research capabilities and the ability to identify investment opportunities and risks [4][5][6]. Group 2 - The job responsibilities include researching overseas markets (covering fixed income, equity, foreign exchange) and A-share markets (financial, technology, consumer sectors), building a research framework, and producing asset allocation recommendations [4]. - The role also involves conducting forward-looking and comprehensive thematic/deep research, producing research reports, and completing research projects [5]. - Additionally, the position requires providing buy-side research services to internal departments and facilitating the application of research outcomes based on business needs [5][6]. Group 3 - The job requirements specify a master's degree or higher, preferably in economics or finance, with a strong foundation in macro research [8]. - Candidates should have over three years of experience in research roles at large financial institutions, with a preference for those with overseas research, banking research, or wealth management research experience [9]. - The ideal candidate should possess a passion for research, a solid methodology and framework for asset research, and excellent written and verbal communication skills [9][10].

Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - Monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques are provided to members [2] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [3] - The focus areas include asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [3]

Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.Sensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, dire ...