金十数据5月8日讯，美国3月批发库存增幅略低于最初估计，因电器、木材、服装和农产品库存减少。 数据显示，美国3月批发库存月率终值增长0.4%，低于上月0.5%的预期增幅。库存是GDP的重要组成部 分，2月份增长0.5%，3月份同比增长2.2%。企业在第一季度提前进口，试图避免特朗普的全面关税， 导致巨额贸易逆差。大部分进口最终都变成了库存。美国政府上周公布的第一季GDP初值预估显示，企 业库存折合成年率增加1401亿美元，10-12月当季仅增加89亿美元。库存对GDP的贡献为2.25个百分 点，为2021年第四季度以来最大。 美国3月份批发库存终值略有下降 ...

英国央行行长贝利：GDP曾一度低迷，随后在年内有所回升。 ...

FICC Research Economics 2 May 2025 US Outlook Holding patterns Tariff crosscurrents continued to complicate the dataflow into April, sending mixed signals about activity amid a strong frontrunning dynamic. This week's combination of solid labor market data and weak GDP is unlikely to draw the Fed from the sidelines. We now assume the next cut will be in July. Another solid month for the labor market... Nonfarm payroll employment posted a solid 177k gain in April (Barclays: 125k; consensus: 138k), confoundin ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]

首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%），新出口订 单指数下跌至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口"虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内 需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3%，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度GDP年化下 降0.3%，不过自3月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4月的非农数据显示美国就业市场 仍然强劲，此背景下5月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对6月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方 面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要对非美国制作影片征收100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担 忧。 重点品种： 原油 、贵金属、铜 原油： 欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油期货继续下跌。八个 参与国将在 2025年6月从2025年5月所需的生产水平开始实施每天41.1万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月 的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟国八国加速减产的决定公布后，国际油价一度下跌近5%。但是中东局势 有恶化的可能，尾盘国际油价缩窄跌幅。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发誓要对伊朗进 ...

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...

印尼第一季度GDP环比-0.98%，预估为-0.90%。 印尼第一季度GDP同比+4.87%，预估为+4.92%。 ...

一季度各大城市GDP相继出炉。 前十强排名依旧，但仔细观察发现：武汉与杭州的差距拉大，并被南京步步紧逼。 但在社会消费品零售总额方面，武汉却颇为亮眼，连续赶超南京、苏州和深圳，排在第六位。 今年GDP前十强城市的竞争让人充满期待！#武汉GDP 01 2025年一季度各城市的经济数据陆续披露。 武汉几乎要掉出十强。 可以说，武汉面临着标兵渐远，追兵渐近的局面。 GDP前十城市排名依然是上海、北京、深圳、重庆、广州、苏州、成都、杭州、武汉、南京。 | | | | 2025年一季度GDP十强城市数据 单位: 亿元 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | 2025第一季度 | 2024第一季度 | 增量 | 名义增长率 | 实际增长率 | | 上海市 | 12735.06 | 12155 | 580.06 | 4.77% | 5.1% | | 北京市 | 12159.9 | 11519 | 640.9 | 5.56% | 5.5% | | 深圳市 | 8950.49 | 8314.98 | 635.51 | 7.64% | 5.2% | | 重庆市 | 7 ...

中国香港一季度GDP同比初值 3.1%，预期 2.1%，前值 2.4%。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，美国财长贝森特表示，GDP下降可能是由于进口商品的库存积压所致；预计GDP数 据将被修正。 ...