Garrett, unemployment up, employers pulling back on hiring. It's not a good picture for a White House right now. How's the administration responding this morning.Yeah, on a no formal statement from the White House yet, a lot of the president's allies in the Republican party have tried to point to the broader health of the overall economy as a way of downplaying these numbers. But just a short time ago, one of the president's top economic adviserss acknowledged that his these numbers are troubling, particula ...

Trade Policy & Tariffs - President Trump signed an executive order announcing new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%, scheduled to take effect on August 7th [1] - Canada was hit with a 35% tariff on imports [2] - Talks with China continue with an August 12th deadline approaching, and a 90-day extension was announced for Mexico [1] - The market is experiencing uncertainty around tariff rates, impacting business investment and hiring decisions [17][20][21] Economic Impact - GDP growth was trending north of 2% before Trump took office and the trade war, but is now around 1% for the first half of the year [9] - The economy is showing signs of slower growth and higher prices, potentially leading to stagflation [10] - Tariffs are being passed through to consumer prices, affecting furniture, toys, apparel, and electronics [14] - Businesses are sitting on their hands in terms of investment and hiring due to uncertainty [20][21] Political Considerations - There is a perception that the economy is doing well, partly because earlier predictions of economic collapse due to tariffs did not materialize [5] - Democrats should focus on how tariffs contradict Trump's promise to lower costs [6] - The chaotic trade war is not resolved and further negotiations are expected [22]

Tariffs Impact & Offsetting Factors - Tariffs' negative impact is offset by the AI boom, tax offsets in the budget bill, and declining energy costs and rents [3] - Approximately 80% of tariff costs are absorbed by US corporations and consumers, with the remaining 20% by foreign suppliers [7] - The US is currently receiving 1% of GDP in tax revenues from tariffs [14] AI Mania & Capital Expenditure - AI is boosting economic activity and animal spirits, leading to a CapEx boom [3][11] - Hyperscalers' CapEx estimates have increased from $290 billion to over $350 billion [7] - Foreigners are investing in the US due to the AI boom, helping to fund the US deficit [13][17] US Economy & Deficit - The US economy's vulnerability lies in its budget deficit, currently at 65% of GDP [9][16] - The US relies on foreign savings to fund its deficit, making it more vulnerable than countries like Japan [13] - The US is able to offset the pain from tariffs because global markets are willing to fund its large budget deficit [10]

All right, let me just talk to you about the broader market. I mean, you know, it's very important to note out the NASDAQ and the S&P, they're both at record highs, double digit record highs this year so far. So, is the the concern about tariffs in the market, has it maybe been overblown.>> I don't think so. Uh, if you take out technology and communication uh sectors out of the S&P, earnings are only up less than 1% so far with revenue growth at about 3%, which is in line with nominal GDP, give or take. So ...

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Is firing the Fed chair, a stagflation shock. Well, so stagflation charges, by definition that inflation will go up and GDP growth will go down. But if you fire the pitcher, as we saw yesterday, the dollar will likely go down.And at the same time, loan rates will be going up and the dollar going down is certainly inflationary, but rates going up is, of course, holding back growth. So firing the Fed chair will probably mainly mean a decline in the dollar and an increase in loan rates. Let's talk about the sn ...

Market Performance - NASDAQ is the only major market to close in the green [1] - Dow is down almost 1 percentage point [2] - S&P 500 is down about 04 percentage point [3] - S&P 600, a small cap market, is down 21%, marking the worst day for small caps in almost 8 weeks [4] - Tech is the only sector in the green, with Materials down 2% [6][7] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The 30-year yield is back above 5%, impacting equities [4] - CPI inflation is stalling out, with tariffs affecting goods inflation [10] - Consumer sentiment is delivering false alarms, with consumers judging their own finances positively but the overall economy negatively [35] - Economists suggest focusing on consumer spending rather than sentiment [40] - June CPI report shows a year-over-year number of 27%, but month-over-month numbers are fine, with the core number at 02% [47][48] Company Specific News - Nvidia is up 404%, resuming sales of some chips in China, potentially adding $8 billion in revenue [8][18][19] - JP Morgan's earnings were strong, with net interest income guidance exceeding expectations by at least $15 billion and investment banking revenues up over 9% year-on-year [25][26][27] - Bank of America expects net interest income to rise about 7% from the previous quarter [62]

Market Outlook - The market reacts significantly to Trump's tweets, but the actual economy is slowing sharply in the second half [1] - Strategists are mostly following what the market is doing, not thinking outside the box with big bold numbers [8] - May to October is a seasonally fraught period, with weakness occurring 60-65% of the time in the last century [9] - There are signs consumers could slow down, as seen in disappointing early Amazon Prime data [10] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is expected to breach 3% by year-end, based on the core personal consumption expenditure deflator (core PCE) [2] - A soft stagflationary environment with inflation above the 2% target and a slowing economy will affect S&P 500 earnings, including big tech [2] - The market may experience an echo of the stagflationary trades seen in the first four months of the year, though potentially half as bad (around 12% drop instead of over 20%) [3] - Inflation faced easy anniversary comparisons, but six-month annualized data and individual components of core PCE suggest inflation is sticky [5][6] Fed Policy - With a slowing economy and sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts are expected [10] Potential Market Pullback - The market anticipates some weakness in the second half of the year [9] - A pullback is expected due to a slowing economy, slowing earnings, sticky inflation, and fewer Fed cuts [10]

It was one in the morning when Trump was still watching the vote on the "Big, Beautiful" bill in the White House . This was to stop the "Big, Beautiful" bill. The Democratic leader Hakim spoke for 8 hours and 44 minutes in the House of Representatives until his voice was hoarse. "(I hope my Republican colleagues) can come to a conclusion" "That is, we serve the American people." After a fierce game, the bill was finally passed . Trump got what he wanted with "218 to 214 votes." "Motion passed", what exactly ...