美联储主席鲍威尔：作为一个委员会，我们不支持个人预测。 ...

PCL团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 生成式视角可以对监督学习重新思考乃至重新定义！ 想象你在教一个学生解数学题——你会直接让他交卷对答案，还是会让他参考完整答案来理解解题思路？ 如今，一种全新的监督学习范式正受到关注：标签不应只是用于对照回答的标准答案，更可能成为学习过程中的辅助参考。 受生成式一致性模型的启发，来自上海交大、SII、MIT、港中文深圳等机构的研究团队在ICML 2025最新提出预测一致性学习（PCL， Predictive Consistency Learning）。 PCL通过扩散模型的扩散过程消减标签的信息，将噪声标签（Noised Labels）引入模型的输入，使得模型在数据输入和噪声标签的共同参照 下预测完整标签，实现标签信息的复用和价值挖掘。 训练过程概览 传统监督学习中，输入 通过神经网络预测 ，通过对比和标准答案 之间的关系，来计算损失和反向传播更新模型，对应损失函数 $${\mathcal{L}}_{S L}=d(f_{\theta}(\mathbf{x}),\mathbf{y}),$$ 其中 为具体损失函数， 为神经网络函数。受生成一致性模型中一致性映射思想 ...

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters poll indicates that 46 out of 86 economists expect the European Central Bank to lower the deposit rate to 1.75% this year, potentially in September [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nearly 60% of economists believe that the risks to inflation forecasts for the Eurozone for the remainder of this year and next year are balanced [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Galena Biopharma, Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4][6]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The recent upgrade reflects an increase in earnings estimates, which is correlated with stock price movements, particularly influenced by institutional investors [5][6]. Investment Implications - Rising earnings estimates and the Zacks rating upgrade suggest an improvement in Galena Biopharma's underlying business, likely leading to increased stock prices as investors respond positively [6][11]. - The Zacks Rank system effectively utilizes earnings estimate revisions to classify stocks, with a strong historical performance of Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Galena Biopharma is expected to earn -$0.28 per share, with no year-over-year change; however, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 33.3% over the past three months [9]. Market Positioning - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Galena Biopharma in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks based on estimate revisions, indicating potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Allison Transmission (ALSN) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4][6]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade for Allison Transmission reflects a positive outlook on its earnings, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimate Revisions - There is a strong correlation between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, making the Zacks rating system valuable for investors [5][7]. - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Current Earnings Estimates for Allison Transmission - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Allison Transmission is expected to earn $8.83 per share, indicating no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 0.4% over the past three months [9]. Conclusion on Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of "buy" and "sell" ratings, with only the top 5% of stocks receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [10][11]. - The upgrade of Allison Transmission to Zacks Rank 1 positions it among the top 5% of stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock movement in the near term [11].

Core Viewpoint - Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) shares have increased by 11% recently, with a mean price target of $11.25 suggesting a potential upside of 42.4% from the current price of $7.90 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $1.89, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest price target of $10.00 suggests a 26.6% increase, while the highest target of $14.00 indicates a potential surge of 77.2% [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as their ability to set unbiased targets has been questioned [3][10] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Analysts are optimistic about MAMA's earnings prospects, with a consensus indicating better-than-previously estimated earnings [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 6.7% over the past month, with no negative revisions [12] - MAMA holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of MAMA's potential gains, the direction implied by the price movement appears to be a useful guide [14]

Nice (NICE) closed the last trading session at $162.61, gaining 1.7% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $204.64 indicates a 25.9% upside potential.The mean estimate comprises 14 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $35.22. While the lowest estimate of $161.00 indicates a 1% decline from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the s ...

Group 1 - HUTCHMED (HCM) closed at $14.84, with a 10.8% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $25.75 indicating a 73.5% upside potential [1] - The average of four short-term price targets ranges from $18.00 to $39.00, with a standard deviation of $9.71, suggesting a variability in estimates; the lowest estimate indicates a 21.3% increase, while the highest points to a 162.8% upside [2] - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price movements, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 39.5% over the past month [4][12] Group 2 - HCM has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates, indicating a strong potential upside [13] - While price targets can be misleading, the direction implied by the consensus price target suggests a positive outlook for HCM [10][14] - Analysts' optimistic earnings prospects, reflected in the upward revisions of EPS estimates, provide a legitimate reason to expect an upside in HCM's stock [11]

Core Viewpoint - Consensus Cloud Solutions, Inc. (CCSI) shows potential for upside with a mean price target of $27.4, indicating a 25.1% increase from the current price of $21.91 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of five estimates ranging from a low of $20.00 to a high of $37.00, with a standard deviation of $7.06, suggesting variability in analyst predictions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a potential decline of 8.7%, while the highest suggests a 68.9% upside [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about CCSI's earnings prospects, as indicated by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which historically correlates with stock price movements [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 0.4%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank - CCSI holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are a common metric, they should be approached with skepticism as they can mislead investors; analysts often set overly optimistic targets due to business incentives [7][8][10]