Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a significant increase of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, marking a record for the year following a presidential election, with expectations for continued gains based on historical trends [3][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold's price surge of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, surpasses previous records set during the Obama and Carter administrations, which saw gains of 43.6% and 31.8% respectively [3][6]. - The price of gold attempted to break the $4,000 level, settling at $3,992.90, with 49 new records established in the past 10 months [7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Anticipation of swift interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has contributed to the rally in gold prices, enhancing its appeal compared to other safe-haven assets [4][6]. - Increased demand for gold from global central banks and private investors, particularly in China and Japan, has positively influenced gold prices [4][6]. Group 3: Political Influence - President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for lower interest rates have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven, amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - Despite the current surge in gold prices, Capital Economics forecasts a decline to $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting that the current market may be experiencing a bubble [6].

Market Overview - Bitcoin has decreased by 3% to a price of $100,175, marking its lowest level since May, with analysts noting a continuation of "Red October" in the market [1] - Ethereum has experienced a 20% decline over the past month, trading at approximately $3,300, effectively erasing all gains for the year [1] Factors Influencing the Market - Macro analyst Alex Krüger identifies five reasons for the ongoing sell-off, including equities, digital asset treasuries, and the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and the unresolved US-China trade war are contributing to a negative sentiment for risk assets [2] Sell Pressure Dynamics - The October 10 crash resulted in the liquidation of around $20 billion in leveraged positions, creating significant sell pressure in the crypto market and equities [3] - Wall Street executives have warned that stocks may face a pullback in the coming year due to these market conditions [3] Selling Trends - Bitcoin ETF investors have recently sold nearly $200 million in assets, following approximately $800 million in sales the previous week [5] - Long-term Bitcoin holders have also been selling significantly, with over $1.5 billion transferred from legacy wallets to exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken [5] Bitcoin Treasuries - Bitcoin treasuries have not been selling but have also not been purchasing, leading to a lack of support for the market [6] - Firms holding Bitcoin recorded the lowest level of purchases in 2025 during October, indicating a potential liquidity issue [6] Future Outlook - Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with the ongoing government shutdown limiting the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The markets are anticipating oral arguments at the Supreme Court regarding the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with a ruling expected by late this year or early 2026 [1] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.70%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -1.12% [5] - US stock indexes are sharply lower, with the S&P 500 falling to a 1.5-week low and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropping to 1-week lows [4] Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is strong, with 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings that beat forecasts, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [6] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-over-year [6] Group 3: Notable Stock Movements - Palantir Technologies is down more than -6% despite better-than-expected Q3 sales, raising concerns about extreme valuations with a price-to-sales ratio of 85, the highest in the S&P 500 [4][15] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is down more than -13% after reporting Q3 revenue of $2.94 billion, below the consensus of $3.02 billion [14] - Zoetis is down more than -12% after cutting its full-year revenue estimate to $9.40 billion-$9.48 billion, below the consensus of $9.51 billion [14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US government shutdown, now in its sixth week, is the longest in history and is negatively impacting market sentiment and the economy [7] - Interest rates are affected by the ongoing government shutdown, which may allow the Fed to continue cutting rates [9]

Group 1 - The dollar has eased slightly as investors assess comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed official Austan Goolsbee expressed no urgency to cut rates due to inflation remaining above the 2% target, while Stephen Miran indicated that current policy is too restrictive [2] - Mary Daly from the Fed mentioned an open mind about a potential rate cut in December, whereas Lisa Cook did not commit to another rate cut [2]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve cut rates last week, but Chair Jerome Powell indicated it might be the last cut of the year, with traders now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, down from 94% a week earlier [1][11] - The dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.99, reaching a three-month high, as the shift in near-term expectations boosted the dollar [2][4][11] U.S. Economic Data - Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, investors are relying on non-government sources for economic data, such as ADP employment data, to assess the U.S. economy's health [5][11] - The Institute for Supply Management survey indicated that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with new orders remaining subdued [5][11] Japanese Yen and Bank of Japan - The yen weakened to 154.38 per U.S. dollar, nearing levels where Japanese authorities previously intervened to support the currency [1][7][11] - The Bank of Japan maintained steady rates, with Governor Kazuo Ueda signaling a potential rate hike in December, but market reactions have been underwhelming [6][11] - Analysts suggest that unless the Bank of Japan tightens policy before year-end, the yen is likely to weaken further [7][11] Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates steady following a strong third-quarter inflation reading, which has diminished expectations for near-term rate cuts [8][11] - Markets have adjusted their expectations, now pricing in only one rate cut by mid-2026, as stronger inflation data suggests a more hawkish stance from the RBA [8][9][11]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by job creation data, with lower job additions potentially leading to rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1] - Rate cuts can have a direct impact on consumer finances, particularly through reduced interest rates on variable-rate products like credit cards and loans [2][4] Group 1: Impact of Job Reports on Interest Rates - A jobs report indicating fewer positions added than expected may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to encourage economic activity [1] - Lower interest rates can lead to increased consumer and business spending, ultimately boosting demand for labor [5] Group 2: Financial Benefits of Rate Cuts - Consumers with variable-rate debts, such as credit cards and car loans, will benefit from lower interest rates, resulting in reduced interest payments [4][5] - Fixed-rate borrowers may also find refinancing opportunities as rates decrease, allowing them to secure better terms on existing loans [6][7]

This is a heavy earnings week, with 173 of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings. Apple and Amazon.com report after Thursday’s close. Q3 earnings have been running strong so far. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2.St ...

Group 1 - Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) experienced a 6% decline in price, influenced by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's comments on interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting concluded with a quarter-point interest rate cut, setting the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%, but Powell indicated that a further cut in December is uncertain [2][8] - Market expectations for another quarter-point rate cut in December dropped from 91% to approximately 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating reduced certainty [3] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency sector is significantly affected by macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, with cryptocurrencies generally performing better in lower interest rate environments [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening in November, which is expected to increase money circulation and positively impact cryptocurrencies [5] - Cardano is viewed as having potential due to its strong technical network, but it remains volatile and competitive, suggesting a recommendation for a smaller, speculative investment [6]

Earnings Reports - 173 S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week, with Apple and Amazon.com reporting after Thursday's close [1] - 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, indicating a strong Q3 earnings season [1] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year from 6.4% in Q2 [1] Market Reactions - US stock indexes are mixed, with Meta Platforms down over 12% and Microsoft down over 2% after failing to meet expectations, while Alphabet is up over 5% after beating Q3 earnings estimates [4][13] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.42%, the Dow Jones is up 0.60%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 0.95% [5] Trade Relations - President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to extend a tariff truce, which includes cutting fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods from 20% to 10% and resuming purchases of US agricultural products by China [2] Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with an overall expected cut of 82 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - The 10-year T-note yield has climbed to a 2.5-week high of 4.11%, putting pressure on stocks [3][9] Company-Specific Movements - Meta Platforms has raised its full-year total expense forecast, leading to a drop of over 12% in its stock price [14] - Sprouts Farmers Market reported Q3 net sales of $2.20 billion, below consensus, resulting in a decline of over 24% in its stock [15] - Chipotle Mexican Grill lowered its full-year sales forecast for the third time this year, leading to a drop of over 17% [16] - Guardant Health raised its full-year revenue forecast to $965 million-$970 million, resulting in a stock increase of over 32% [18] - C.H. Robinson Worldwide reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.40, above consensus, and announced a $2 billion share repurchase program, leading to an increase of over 18% in its stock [19]

Housing Affordability - Interest rate cuts are a good start to tackling home affordability issues [1] - More housing supply is needed to bring prices down [1] Housing Supply - Local city councils need to deregulate to enable more housing construction [1]