18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Trade tensions have diminished somewhat since the last FOMC meeting, with low inflation and limited signs of economic softening observed [2][5] - The FOMC is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding tariffs and economic projections, emphasizing the uncertainty in the economic outlook [6][16] - Economic forecasts include a projected 14 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, leading to a peak core PCE inflation of 3.4%, GDP growth slowing to 1.25% in 2025, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4% [7][8][17] Economic Projections - The median projection for 2025 indicates slightly higher inflation at 3.0%, lower GDP growth at 1.5%, and a higher unemployment rate at 4.5% [17][21] - The FOMC is anticipated to deliver the first of three normalization cuts in December, with a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% expected by 2026 [25][27] - The report highlights that aside from tariffs, inflation news has been relatively soft, with wage growth expectations and new tenant rent growth declining [26][30] Tariff Impact - The report outlines that tariffs are expected to reduce GDP growth by almost 1 percentage point due to their tax-like effect on consumer spending and the uncertainty they create for business investment [8][10] - The effective tariff rate is projected to increase significantly, with over 9 percentage points attributed to tariffs already in effect [7][10] Summary of Economic Projections - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and core PCE inflation at 3.0% [19][20] - The FOMC's interest rate projections are expected to remain unchanged, with a close split among participants regarding future cuts [21][24]

Industry Overview - Natural gas distribution pipelines are essential for delivering natural gas to consumers, with nearly 3 million pipelines in the U.S. [1] - Rising domestic natural gas output is driven by increased exports and public awareness of emissions reduction [2] - The natural gas sector requires consistent funding for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure, with anticipated interest rate cuts expected to lower capital servicing costs [3] Demand and Growth Projections - Natural gas consumption for electricity generation is projected to contribute nearly 40% in 2025 and 2026 [5] - U.S. natural gas exports are expected to grow by 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026, with export volumes increasing by 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 [5] Company Comparisons - MDU Resources has a market capitalization of $3.43 billion, while Southwest Gas has $5.11 billion [6] - MDU's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate has increased by 1.1% to 95 cents, while Southwest Gas's EPS estimate has increased by 4.8% to $3.72 [7] - MDU has a return on equity (ROE) of 9.86%, compared to Southwest Gas's 6.76%, both above the industry average of 9.24% [8] Financial Metrics - MDU has a lower debt-to-capital ratio of 44.44% compared to Southwest Gas's 57.36%, with the industry average at 50.49% [11] - MDU's stock has lost 0.5% over the past three months, while Southwest Gas has declined by 2.3% [10][12] - MDU's dividend yield is 3.1%, while Southwest Gas's is 3.49%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.24% [13] Valuation - Both companies are trading at a premium on a forward 12-month P/E basis, with MDU at 17.16X and Southwest Gas at 17.98X, compared to the industry average of 14.84X [14] Conclusion - Both MDU Resources and Southwest Gas are positioned well for growth, but MDU is favored due to its superior ROE, debt management, and stock performance [15]

Market Overview - Major indices experienced a quiet trading day, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.25%, while small-cap stocks remained unchanged. Following the jobs report, equities are positioned to approach 6,000 [2]. Employment Data - The latest employment report indicated a gain of 139 thousand jobs, surpassing forecasts of 130 thousand, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Revisions for March and April showed a downward adjustment of 95 thousand jobs [3]. Earnings Reports - Lululemon reported earnings and warned of tariff-related challenges, leading to a premarket decline of over 20% in its shares. Broadcom's shares fell nearly 3% in premarket trading despite beating estimates, as its forecast met expectations rather than exceeding them. DocuSign's shares also dropped by 20% after reporting slower-than-expected billings growth [4][8]. Tesla's Stock Movement - The ongoing feud between President Trump and Elon Musk has led to a significant impact on Tesla's stock, which fell by 14% on Thursday. However, a scheduled call between Trump and Musk has resulted in a 4% increase in Tesla's shares during premarket trading [5][8]. Bond Market Insights - Following the employment numbers, the VIX index is below 17.5, approaching its historical mean of 16. Bond yields are rising, with the benchmark 10-year note at 4.44% and 30-year rates at 4.93%, which may affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [6].

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are significant players in the gold mining industry, with global operations and diversified portfolios. Gold prices, while down from April 2025 highs, remain favorable due to safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, currently above $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 28% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies, global trade tensions, and central bank accumulation of gold reserves. Prices peaked at $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, amid calls for interest rate cuts [3]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and creating a multi-decade production profile [6]. - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion, which includes $1.7 billion from three assets sold in March 2025 and $850 million from additional sales [7]. - The company reported liquidity of $8.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with operating cash flow increasing 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion [8]. - Newmont returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1 billion since the beginning of 2025, maintaining a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 20% [10]. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance production and cash flow [11]. - Tasiast and Paracatu are the main contributors to Kinross's cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [12]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 66.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 54.4% [15]. - NEM trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.59, approximately 10% below the industry average of 14X, while KGC trades at a premium with a multiple of 13.37 [18][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 2% and 20.1%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 15.3% and 63.2% [21][24]. Investment Considerations - Both Newmont and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its valuation and higher dividend yield [25].

Core Insights - The Zacks Utility - Water Supply industry is essential for providing clean water and sewer services, with demand fluctuating seasonally due to weather conditions [1][3] - Aging infrastructure poses challenges, but companies are investing in upgrades to ensure reliable service [2][6] Industry Overview - The industry consists of companies delivering drinking water and wastewater services across a vast network of approximately 2.2 million miles of pipelines [3] - Water utilities are capital-intensive and benefit from lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs for infrastructure projects [4] Trends Impacting the Industry - Falling interest rates, recently reduced by 100 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%, are expected to further decrease capital costs, aiding infrastructure investments [4] - The U.S. water industry is highly fragmented, with over 50,000 community water systems, leading to a need for consolidation to improve service quality and efficiency [5] Infrastructure Investment Needs - The American Society of Civil Engineers reports water main breaks occur every two minutes, highlighting the urgent need for infrastructure upgrades [6] - An estimated $1.25 trillion is required over the next 20 years for maintenance and expansion, with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law committing $50 billion to these efforts [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Utility Water Supply industry ranks 46 among over 244 Zacks industries, indicating strong prospects [7][8] - The industry has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and the Utility sector over the past year, gaining 11.1% versus 11.4% for the S&P 500 [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 11.27X, lower than the S&P 500's 16.85X and the sector's 15.09X, suggesting it is undervalued [13] Companies to Watch - Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo plans to invest $10.6 billion from 2024-2029 to enhance its infrastructure [17] - Artesian Resources Corporation is set to invest $46.4 million in 2025 for infrastructure improvements [22] - Middlesex Water Company has a long-term earnings growth estimate of 6.1% and plans to strengthen its operations [27] - American Water Works Company aims to invest $3.3 billion in 2025 and $17-19 billion from 2025-2029 for infrastructure expansion [30]

Australian office indicators Key leasing and capital markets metrics across the Australian office market Improving sentiment driving greater liquidity RECENT DEALS INDICATE THAT PRIME YIELDS HAVE STABILISED Markets have shown improving sentiment resulting with momentum in office investment continuing in Q1 2025. Several large deals occurred in Q1, with almost all activity located in Sydney. We consider that prime yields have stabilised for core assets, led by Sydney which has seen higher deal volumes and he ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Industry Overview - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from rate increases, strong retention rates, new business growth, an active M&A strategy, and ongoing technological advancements in Q1 2025 [1] - However, interest rate cuts, an active catastrophe environment, and continued inflationary pressures may dampen overall growth prospects for insurers [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Total earnings for finance companies in Q1 2025 are anticipated to rise by 8.2% year-over-year, with revenues expected to improve by 3.3% [2] - Insurance companies are likely to see revenue growth driven by strong premiums from casualty insurance rate increases, exposure growth, and solid customer retention rates [3] Market Dynamics - U.S. commercial insurance rates experienced an overall decline in Q1 2025, primarily due to falling property insurance rates, while the casualty market saw strong price increases due to higher claim severity [4] - Lower interest rates are expected to pressure life insurers' investment returns but may encourage M&A financing, allowing insurers to diversify portfolios and enhance policy sales [5][6] Underwriting and Claims Environment - An active catastrophe environment poses challenges to insurers' underwriting performance, but such events typically lead to stronger policy renewal activity and prudent rate hikes [7] - The aging U.S. population is expected to maintain strong demand for life insurance and protection products, contributing to steady premium inflows [8] Specific Company Insights Allstate - Expected to see higher net premiums across most business lines, supported by rate increases, with a consensus estimate of $2.27 per share, indicating a 55.8% decline year-over-year [12][13] - Revenue consensus is pegged at $17.1 billion, implying 11% growth from the previous year [13] Aflac - Revenue growth is anticipated from U.S. operations, with a consensus estimate of $1.68 per share, indicating a 1.2% rise year-over-year, but revenues are expected to fall by 19.5% to $4.4 billion [14] - Challenges include a decline in sales of group voluntary benefit products and headwinds in the Japan segment [14] Prudential Financial - Expected to gain from higher fees and improved net investment spread, with a consensus estimate of $3.21 per share, indicating a 2.9% rise year-over-year, but revenues are expected to drop by 33% to $14.5 billion [15] - Growth supported by a diversified product portfolio in Japan and expanded channels in Brazil [15] MetLife - Anticipated to benefit from rising premiums across most segments, with a consensus estimate of $1.99 per share, indicating an 8.7% rise year-over-year, and revenues expected to grow by 7% to $18.2 billion [16] - Growth driven by strengthening operations in international markets, particularly Latin America [16]