美国国债收益率下跌，10年期收益率日内跌1.5个基点，至4.409%。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 2 、土地溢价率：明显回落。 截至 6 月 8 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 1.04% 。 5 月为 5.14% 。 4 月为 9.75% 。 景气向上 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数：有所上行。 截至 6 月 8 日，该指数为 6.35% ，环比 5 月 25 日的 5.82 % 上行 0.53% 。 4 月以来，该指数上行的主要驱动因素是沥青开工率和乘用车批零，对应基建和耐用品消费。 2 、耐用品消费：乘用车零售维持较高增速。 6 月前日，乘用车零售同比为 +19% 。 5 月同比为 +13.3% 。 4 月同比为 +14.5% 。 3 、地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅收窄 。我们统计的 67 个城市， 6 月前 13 日，商品房成交面积同比 -5.3% ，环比 5 月 -8.6% 。 5 月同比 -13% 。 4 、基建：石油沥青装置周度开工率、水泥发运率均继续回升。 截至 6 月 11 日当周，石油沥青装置开工 率为 31.5% ，同比 +9.3% ，环比前一 ...

德国国债持续走低，10年期国债收益率上行5个基点至2.59%。 ...

美国国债延续跌势，10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至4.46%。 ...

德国国债开盘持稳，10年期国债收益率报2.54%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields are currently at an attractive level, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the fair value estimate by Russell Investments [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to have a fair value of 4.1%, making the current yield appealing [1] - Recent data from Tradeweb indicates that Treasury yields experienced a slight increase after a temporary drop due to geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Russell Investments' baseline forecast suggests that U.S. economic growth and potential inflation will gradually slow down, which may support the Federal Reserve in resuming interest rate cuts [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week (June 16 - 20, 2025) and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 6月16日 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May. Forecasts include 3.9% y/y growth in cumulative urban fixed - asset investment from January to May (4.0% in January - April), 5.9% y/y growth in industrial added value of large - scale industries in May (6.1% in April), 5.0% y/y growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in May (5.1% in April), and a surveyed unemployment rate of 5.1% in May (same as April). Lower - than - previous growth rates may suppress the rise of stock index and commodity futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [4]. - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation [5]. - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [7]. 6月17日 - The US Department of Commerce will release US retail sales for May at 20:30. The expected monthly rate of retail sales is - 0.7% (0.1% previously), and the expected monthly rate of core retail sales is 0.3% (0.1% previously). A lower - than - previous monthly rate of retail sales may help the rise of gold and silver futures but suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [8]. - The Federal Reserve will release US industrial output for May at 21:15. The expected monthly rate of industrial output is 0.1% (0% previously). A slightly higher - than - previous monthly rate may slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals futures but slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [9]. - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 16:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [11]. 6月18日 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 - 19. The theme is "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation, and High - Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies during the forum [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will release data on new home starts and building permits for May at 20:30. The expected annualized total of new home starts is 1.36 million units (1.361 million previously), and the expected initial annualized total of building permits is 1.43 million units (1.422 million previously) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 at 20:30. The expected number is 245,000 (248,000 previously). A slightly lower - than - previous number may slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures and slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [15]. - The EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 22:30. A continued decrease in inventories may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [16]. 6月19日 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. It is expected that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged. Attention should be paid to the economic outlook summary and Powell's speech and their impact on relevant futures prices [17]. - The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 16:30, expected to keep the policy rate at 0.25% [18]. - The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% [19]. 6月20日 - The People's Bank of China will authorize the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce the loan prime rate (LPR) for June 2025 at 09:00. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% (unchanged from the previous value), and the expected 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50% (unchanged from the previous value). If unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures is basically neutral [20]. - Eurostat will release the preliminary consumer confidence index for the eurozone in June at 22:00. The expected preliminary value for May is - 14.05 (- 15.2 previously) [21].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/16 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/13 | 4.401 | 4.549 | 3.252 | 2.533 | 3.483 | 3.157 | 0.258 | 3.276 | 最新变化 | 0.040 | 0.073 | 0.071 | 0.058 | 0.079 | 0.081 | 0.024 | 0 ...

日本20年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.37%。 ...

周五（6月13日）欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率涨7.1个基点，报3.253%，日内持续上行，本周累计 上涨0.9个基点，以色列袭击伊朗产生"膝跳反应"式的避险需求——在周五欧股开盘之前微幅跳水至 3.152%，随后追随油价涨势而走高。 希腊10年期国债收益率涨6.0个基点，报3.283%，本周累涨0.9个基点，整体呈现出W形走势。 意大利10年期国债收益率涨7.9个基点，报3.484%，日内持续上行，本周累跌1.8个基点，整体交投区间 为3.520%-3.383%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率涨8.0个基点，报3.159%，本周累涨0.6个基点，整体呈现出W形走势，周五欧 股盘前曾跳水至3.047%。 ...