（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月9日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率跌3.0个基点，报4.374%；两年期英债 收益率跌1.2个基点，报3.644%；30年期英债收益率跌3.9个基点，报5.120%，本周累跌15.3个基点。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月7日，英国30年期国债收益率下跌8个基点至5.14%，为4月份以来最低。 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜英国10年期国债收益率跌2.2个基点，报4.484%。两年期英债收益率跌1.8个基点，报 3.702%。30年期英债收益率跌1.6个基点，50年期英债收益率跌1.7个基点。2/10年期英债收益率利差跌 0.308个基点，报+78.142个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in UK government bond yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 4.517% and a total increase of 4.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 2.4 basis points to 3.747%, with a weekly decline of 3.4 basis points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts and treasury purchase plans [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 5.268%, showing a total weekly rise of 7.4 basis points, while the 50-year yield rose by 5.9 basis points to 4.737%, with a weekly increase of 6.1 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds increased by 5.535 basis points to +76.685 basis points, with a total weekly rise of 7.264 basis points [1]

富兰克林邓普顿欧洲固定收益主管大卫.扎恩表示，英国政府将难以负担支出，这将推动30年期英国国 债收益率在未来一年升至6%。 税收不确定性 尽管英国债务管理办公室已削减了长期债券的发行，但预算案的不确定性和通胀前景抵消了供应减少的 影响。"任何人都很难预测"从里夫斯宣布的税收中"能筹集多少资金"，扎恩表示，"实际筹集的资金可 能会少于他们的预期。" 扎恩指出，这些措施将在预计于2029年举行的下次大选前后生效，届时政府可能会倾向于回避任何政治 上不利的行动。"任何政府在临近投票时大幅增税都是非常不寻常的，"他说。 扎恩自今年4月以来一直呼吁提高英国国债收益率。他已于3月清空了所有英国国债头寸，称鉴于英国严 峻的财政状况，该国市场最易受到支出增加的影响。 他对30年期收益率将达到6%的逆向预测尚未实现。该收益率在9月初曾短暂升至5.75%，随后回落至周 三收盘时的5.2%。追踪英国国债表现的指数今年迄今上涨超过4%，有望创下自2020年以来的最佳年度 回报。 英国国债录得两年来最佳表现，正赢得全球投资者青睐。英国的借贷成本在发达国家中位居前列：其30 年期国债收益率比德国同类债券高出180个基点，比法国高出80个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] Summary by Category Bond Yields - The 10-year UK government bond yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 4.546% [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 7.1 basis points to 3.776% [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield dropped by 3.1 basis points [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield saw a decline of 6.7 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% for the first time since July, reflecting concerns over budget deficits and increased bond issuance [1][5] - The spread between long-term and two-year Treasury yields has widened to 133 basis points, the largest gap since 2021, as the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - Global long-term bond yields are rising, with the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.752%, indicating ongoing concerns about fiscal conditions in major economies [5] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. job vacancy data is expected to provide insights into the potential extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with economists predicting a drop to 7.382 million vacancies in July [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, which could significantly alter interest rate expectations [7] - The recent rise in long-term Treasury yields is causing volatility in the U.S. stock market, as higher rates lead to a reassessment of growth stock valuations [8][9] Group 3 - The U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce new tax measures in the upcoming budget on November 26, which may further impact market sentiment [6] - In France, the Prime Minister is facing a confidence vote regarding a debt reduction plan, which is causing investor unease [7] - The overall market has shown signs of stabilization after significant sell-offs, with yields on eurozone bonds decreasing [7]

Group 1 - The UK 5-year government bond yield has risen to 4.210%, the highest level since May 2025, with an increase of 3 basis points on the day [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield has reached 4.849%, the highest since January 2025, with an increase of over 4 basis points on the day [1] - The UK 20-year government bond yield has climbed to 5.583%, the highest level since August 1998, with an increase of 4 basis points on the day [1] - The UK 30-year government bond yield has increased to 5.735%, the highest since May 1998, with an increase of 4 basis points on the day [1]

Group 1 - The UK long-term borrowing costs have risen to the highest level since 1998, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching 5.68% [1][3] - The depreciation of the British pound against the US dollar by 70 basis points and a 0.3% increase in the euro against the pound indicate market volatility [3] - Concerns over high inflation, significant government borrowing, and slow economic growth in the UK are leading to higher risk premiums compared to other G7 countries [3][4] Group 2 - The UK manufacturing PMI for August was revised down to 47.0, marking a three-month low and indicating economic contraction [4] - Demand for long-term UK government bonds has weakened, particularly from traditional buyers like pension funds, contributing to rising yields [4] - Over the past 12 months, the UK 30-year bond yield has increased by more than 100 basis points, outpacing the increases in comparable US and German bonds [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - European financial markets experienced a significant sell-off on September 2, with the British pound dropping 1.52% against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.3340, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7 [2] - The German stock index fell over 2%, while the UK 30-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69% [1][4] - In the US, major stock indices also faced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising more than 19%, indicating increased market volatility [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in bond yields across Europe is attributed to increased fiscal spending by various countries to address geopolitical security and economic recovery, leading to concerns about the sustainability of public finances [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.69%, while Germany's and France's yields also saw significant increases, with Germany at 3.40% and France surpassing 4.5% for the first time since 2011 [4] - Analysts noted a "vicious cycle" where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - Concerns over the sustainability of UK public finances were heightened by proposals for a windfall tax on bank reserves, which could further pressure the British pound [5] - The UK government is expected to implement additional tax measures, raising fears of increased fiscal pressure [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5] Group 4: Pension System Reforms - Structural reforms in the Dutch pension system are impacting the long-term bond market in Europe, as the new system encourages younger members to invest more in equities, reducing demand for long-duration hedging instruments [6] - The Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU total, holding nearly €300 billion in European bonds [7] Group 5: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in Europe is influenced by inflation pressures, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [8][9] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.3%, exceeding market expectations, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [8] - Market expectations suggest a 25% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates before December, amid ongoing economic growth and inflation risks [8][9]