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2025年12月05日：期货市场交易指引-20251205

Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 04:46

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Recommending range trading for coking coal and rebar; advising to wait and not chase highs for glass [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting range trading for copper, tin, and gold; recommending to reduce long positions when aluminum rebounds to a high level; advising to wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; suggesting to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to trade with a bullish bias [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Recommending range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; suggesting to wait and see for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][26] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to trade with a bullish bias; expecting PTA to rise in a sideways movement; expecting apples to trade with a bullish bias; expecting red dates to trade weakly [1][27][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Recommending a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term hog contracts and being cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; expecting egg prices to face limited upside; suggesting to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and for grain holders to hedge on rallies; recommending range trading for soybean meal; suggesting to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [1][30][32][36] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different sectors, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry [1][5][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - shares fluctuated and recovered. Although the market's main line rotated quickly and trading volume was poor, expectations of Fed rate cuts and domestic meetings supported the indices. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower. Whether the market can break out of the current range depends on the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance of important meetings on next year's economic situation and monetary policy. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: The coal market continued to decline, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected to trade in a range [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The current valuation is neutral to low, and there are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level [7] - **Glass**: Futures prices rebounded recently due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - cash traders. However, the overall inventory pressure is still large, and it is recommended to wait and not chase highs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the DRC is complex. Although long - term demand is optimistic, short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [10] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is expected to increase, and the overall demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant in the future, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14][15] - **Tin**: Tin production increased in October, and the supply of tin concentrate is tight. The price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to trade in a range [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and safe - haven demand, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and trade gold in a range [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde's mine [17][18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is high, and the valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction in alumina production. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways [21] - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing during the peak season, and demand is poor. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is weakening. However, the reduction in inventory provides support, and it is expected to trade sideways [23][24] - **Methanol**: Domestic supply has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade sideways [25] - **Polyolefins**: Inventory continued to decline, but demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is in excess, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand data is relatively loose, domestic cotton sales are fast, and yarn prices are firm. They are expected to trade with a bullish bias [27][28] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, it is expected to rise in a sideways movement [28] - **Apples**: The trading volume in the warehouse is general, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [29] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%. Enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and prices are expected to trade weakly [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to adjust slightly. In the long term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on far - term contracts [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: The supply is still sufficient, but short - term supply - demand conditions have marginally improved. In the long term, capacity reduction still takes time. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33] - **Corn**: In the short term, price rebounds may be limited by increased supply. In the long term, cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and for grain holders to hedge on rallies [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans is expected to trade in a narrow range. Domestic supply is sufficient in December and January. It is recommended to trade in a range [36][37] - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, the three major domestic oils lack further positive factors and are expected to trade at a high level. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [37][38][42]