Core Insights - Social Security benefits are crucial for over 70 million beneficiaries, with more than 53 million being retired workers, making it a necessity rather than a luxury [1] - In 2023, Social Security lifted 22 million Americans above the federal poverty line, significantly reducing the poverty rate for seniors aged 65 and above to 10.1% from an estimated 37.3% without the program [2] Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) - The anticipated annual COLA for Social Security beneficiaries is a key announcement, with the 2026 COLA set at 2.8%, slightly above the 2.3% average increase since 2010 [3][7] - The 2026 COLA marks the fifth consecutive year of increases of at least 2.5%, a trend not seen since 1988-1997 [8] - The nominal impact of the 2.8% increase will result in an average monthly benefit for retired workers rising to $2,071, an increase of $56 [9] Inflation and Purchasing Power - The CPI-W, used to determine COLA, does not accurately reflect the inflationary pressures faced by retirees, leading to a 20% loss of purchasing power since 2010 [12][14] - The CPI-W primarily reflects the spending habits of working-age Americans, which differ significantly from those of retirees [13] Medicare Premiums Impact - Approximately 30 million retired-worker beneficiaries are expected to face a significant increase in Medicare Part B premiums, rising by 9.7% to $202.90 in 2026, which could negate the benefits of the COLA [18][20] - The increase in Part B premiums is attributed to rising healthcare costs and increased utilization rates [18]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has expressed support for lower interest rates in 2026, indicating potential investment opportunities in the current market environment [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) is focused on providing transparency and analytics for capital market instruments and trades, particularly in Closed-End Funds (CEFs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Special Situations [1] - BTA aims to deliver high annualized returns while maintaining a low volatility profile, leveraging over 20 years of investment experience [1] Group 2: Market Context - The current economic climate is characterized by uncertainty regarding inflation, but there are low-risk opportunities that can be identified for attractive investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Nvidia trade has been a significant driver of the recent bull market for the S&P and NASDAQ, but there are concerns about its sustainability moving forward [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and AI Influence - The market is seeking tangible proof that AI can continue to drive economic gains and productivity improvements [3] - There is a prevailing sentiment of caution as the market awaits further evidence of AI's impact, leading to a "show me" situation [4] - Concerns about a potential pullback in AI infrastructure spending may be overstated [2] Group 2: Sector Leadership and Economic Outlook - Leadership in the market is expected to shift towards cyclical sectors such as industrials and financials, with materials also showing strong performance [7] - The bull market is anticipated to remain robust, with cyclical areas likely leading the way into 2026 [8] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, will be a key focus for investors in the upcoming year [9] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Growth - The valuation model for the S&P 500 is influenced by the interest rate backdrop, with a preference for declining 10-year yields [10] - Expectations for inflation to continue decreasing contribute to a favorable outlook for earnings growth [11] - There is an anticipated positive bias towards GDP trends due to recent tax reform measures, supporting a broader economic recovery [12]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the impact of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and earnings growth on market performance, with a focus on the potential for continued double-digit gains in the stock market. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed's actions, particularly rate cuts, have been significant but there is a belief that further cuts may not be necessary given strong GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3 and projected 15% profit growth year-over-year for the next year [3][4] - There is speculation that the Fed may still cut rates once or more in the coming year due to political pressures, but the primary focus should be on earnings growth rather than Fed actions [4][6] Group 2: Earnings and Economic Growth - Earnings growth is identified as the primary driver of market gains, with initial fears about earnings being unfounded as the year progressed [2] - The combination of strong earnings, supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and robust GDP growth creates a favorable environment for the stock market [6][8] Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - There is cautious optimism about the market's ability to continue its upward trajectory, driven by AI and other sectors, despite potential volatility and risks such as upcoming Supreme Court decisions that could impact trade policy [15][16] - Concerns about inflation resurfacing if rate cuts are implemented too aggressively highlight the delicate balance the Fed must maintain [11][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Rate Trajectory - The upcoming change in Fed chair leadership in 2026 is significant for the rate trajectory and overall macroeconomic environment [1][2][3] - A dovish Fed chair may lead to potential rate cuts, but it is unlikely that rates will drop to 1% or 2% [2][4] - The new Fed chair's ability to influence the committee's stance on rates is crucial, as they only have one vote and need committee support for major changes [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns and Economic Data - Inflation has taken a backseat recently, but its potential resurgence in 2026 remains uncertain [5][6] - Current inflation data may be distorted, complicating predictions for future inflation trends [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still unclear, with opinions divided on whether they will have a lasting effect [14] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The oil and gas market shows signs of flagging inflation, while precious metals are reaching record highs, indicating mixed signals in the economy [11][12] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion is not intended to be stimulative but may have stimulative effects on the economy [13] - Lower interest rates could benefit housing and reduce the interest burden on U.S. Treasury debt, positively impacting the real economy [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. reported strong financial performance for fiscal 2025, with significant increases in sales and net income, despite facing inflationary pressures and rising operating costs [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, sales rose to $49.2 million from $46 million, and net income increased to $0.9 million from $0.2 million, resulting in diluted EPS of $0.48 compared to $0.11 a year ago [2]. - Total revenues for fiscal 2025 increased by 9.6% to $205.2 million from $187.2 million, while net income attributable to stockholders surged by 49.9% to $5 million ($2.71 per share) from $3.4 million ($1.81 per share) in fiscal 2024 [3]. Segment Performance - Restaurant food sales grew by 8.5% to $124.5 million, and restaurant bar sales increased by 5.8% to $31.8 million. Package store sales advanced by 16% to $46.9 million, driven by higher customer traffic [4]. - Restaurant gross margin improved to 66.6% from 65.6%, while package store gross margin fell to 25.1% from 26.6%, indicating differing profitability trends across segments [7]. Cost Management - Total costs and expenses rose by 8.3% to $196.5 million, which was slower than revenue growth, leading to a 49.7% increase in income from operations to $8.7 million from $5.8 million [5]. - Payroll and related costs increased by 7.3% to $63.7 million, but payroll as a percentage of revenue improved to 31.04% from 31.70%, suggesting effective cost management [6]. Liquidity and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of fiscal 2025 were $20.1 million, down from $21.4 million, primarily due to a land acquisition. Operating cash flow improved to $10.5 million from $6.6 million [8]. Management Insights - Management highlighted that revenue growth was driven by higher menu prices and increased sales, particularly from the Hollywood, FL location operating for the full year [9]. - To maintain margins amid inflation, the company implemented multiple price increases throughout fiscal 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - While Flanigan's did not provide formal numeric guidance for fiscal 2026, management expects continued growth in restaurant and package store sales, but also anticipates rising operating costs and a potential decline in package liquor store gross margin [12]. - The company plans to construct a new restaurant in Cutler Bay, FL, and has committed to purchasing $9.2 million of baby back ribs for calendar year 2026, reflecting increased market pricing [13][14].

Core Insights - The potential invasion of Venezuela poses significant geopolitical risks that could impact global markets, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices [1][2][3] - Venezuela's oil production, accounting for 1% of global consumption, could lead to notable short-term impacts on energy prices and inflation if disrupted [2] - Military action in Venezuela could have broader implications for regime change and oil production, affecting financial markets worldwide [3] Active ETFs and Investment Strategies - Active ETFs provide flexibility to adjust to geopolitical risks and focus on company fundamentals, which can help investors navigate market shocks [4] - The T. Rowe Price Equity Research ETF (TSPA) exemplifies an active ETF that utilizes a bottom-up portfolio construction approach, identifying companies with strong fundamentals [5] - Transitioning to active ETFs by the end of 2025 may be a strategic move for investors to prepare for potential geopolitical risks in the upcoming year [5]

We're joined on set by Rob Row. He is the head of global strategy at City Research right here at Post 9. Rob, >> glad to see somebody else working today.Really, really appreciate. >> We're all here on Boxing Day as they say in the UK. >> Yes, exactly.Um, you know, listen, lot there's a lot of tax law changes that are happening next year, both personally and on the corporate side as well. It's a little bit call it WBI, wonky, but important. How much of it all is that factoring into your outlook for next year ...

No Overhead Resistance, Only Reversal RiskWith no true resistance, let’s face it, the only fear for the bulls is a sudden reversal to the downside with better-than-average volume. We could still get this today, but if it occurs, it will be driven by low volume, which will set up the next “buy the dip” opportunity.The New Definition of a Dip in a Vertical Gold MarketAs we move higher and more vertical, the definition of dip is going to change. Sticking with a 50% correction of a price swing, our “dip” level ...

Michael Zakur. Did I say that correctly. Michael, thank you.F five new digital founder and author of the new retail. All right. Can we talk about this calendar thing.Did it matter at all this year. In your opinion, >> it did matter. Um it was it jumped out at me immediately in the summer, you know, when I'm planning my holiday rituals and uh what I'm doing for my own shopping and working with my clients.I said, "Oh my god, we're only going to have I think it was 27 days between right uh Thanksgiving and and ...