Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to advance a temporary funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown has now entered its 28th day, with no signs of resolution [1] - Senate Democrats have blocked the Republican-backed funding bill for the 13th time, which aimed to fund federal agencies until November 21 [1] Legislative Context - The funding bill did not include funding for healthcare programs demanded by Democrats, nor did it impose restrictions on President Trump's cuts to previously approved congressional funds [1] - The failure to secure the necessary 60 votes in the Senate was due to the lack of support from Democrats [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has failed for the 13th time to advance a temporary funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown has now entered its 28th day, with no signs of resolution [1] - The Senate is experiencing a deadlock over spending bills, while a critical food assistance program is nearing depletion of funds [1] Group 1 - The Senate voted 54 to 45 against the temporary funding bill, which aimed to keep federal agencies operational until November 21 [1] - The bill did not include funding for healthcare programs demanded by Democrats, nor did it impose restrictions on President Trump's cuts to previously approved congressional funding, leading to a lack of necessary support from Democrats [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown may continue until November, affecting millions due to the expiration of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, leading to increased healthcare costs [1] - Hundreds of thousands of federal workers are being furloughed, while others are working without pay, and federal food assistance programs are nearing an end [1] - The Senate failed to pass a procedural vote to advance the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," marking the 13th attempt to move the bill forward, which requires 60 votes to proceed [1]

Core Points - A coalition of states led by the Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit to block the Trump administration from suspending food assistance benefits during the ongoing government shutdown starting November 1 [1] - The lawsuit was initiated after the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced it would not utilize $6 billion in emergency funds to pay for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), also known as food stamps [1] - This food assistance program provides support to over 41 million low-income Americans [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," aimed at ending the government shutdown, with a vote of 54 to 45 [1] - This marks the 13th vote on the bill, which was previously passed by the House of Representatives, but did not meet the required 60 votes in the Senate [1] - The inability to pass a new temporary funding bill before the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30 has resulted in the federal government running out of operational funds and entering a shutdown since October 1 [1] Legislative Context - The ongoing government shutdown is attributed to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over key issues such as healthcare-related benefits [1] - The current funding levels proposed in the bill are intended to temporarily restore government operations [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant impact on U.S. air traffic control due to the federal government shutdown, leading to increased flight delays and personnel shortages [1] - As of October 27, over 3,000 flights were delayed on that day alone, and on October 26, more than 8,600 flights experienced delays across the nation [1] - The shutdown, which began on October 1, exacerbates existing staffing shortages in air traffic control, and the situation may worsen as air traffic controllers will not receive their pay on the scheduled payday of October 28 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the global financial market is facing a monetary policy decision in a data "vacuum." The market has priced in a 97.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting. Amid government shutdown, inflation stickiness, weak employment signals, and political pressure, the meeting is a complex game. Fed's rate - cut expectations will support precious metals through interest rates and the dollar, but actual price performance depends on the strength of policy path signals after the rate cut [2][5]. - After the end of the data "vacuum period," potential expectation revisions may occur. Once the government shutdown ends, significant deviations between delayed economic data and market expectations may force investors to re - evaluate the rate - cut prospects, potentially causing sharp cross - asset class fluctuations. Investors should focus on the Fed's internal policy consensus, the actual performance of the first batch of economic data after the shutdown ends, and the persistence and consistency of policy signals [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data "Vacuum" under Policy Dilemma: Shutdown Impact and Decision - Making Challenges - The Fed's October 2025 meeting faces a "data blind - spot" dilemma due to a 28 - day government shutdown starting from October 1st, the second - longest in US history. Key economic data collection and release by government departments have stalled, challenging the Fed's policy - making [6]. - Data quality is severely affected. Long - term shutdown may directly disrupt data collection and introduce structural biases. Although private - sector alternative data fills some gaps, its information is limited [7]. 3.2 Economic Signal Analysis: Double Confirmation of Stable Inflation and Weak Employment - The September CPI data shows that US consumer price inflation was lower than expected, with core CPI growth at a three - month low, indicating a structural slowdown in inflation [8]. - The employment market shows obvious weakness. The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, far below expectations. Previous employment data also shows poor performance, and there are signs of structural deterioration in the job market [9]. - These economic signals provide a basis for the Fed's rate - cut decision, with the Fed leaning towards focusing on employment risks [11]. 3.3 Powell's Balancing Act: Policy Shift and Risk Management - Fed Chair Powell faces a dilemma in policy - making. He also signals that the three - year - long quantitative tightening may end soon, and emphasizes a cautious approach to maintain financial market stability [15][17]. - Powell defends the Fed's policy independence and warns against the potential risks of Congress canceling the Fed's ability to pay interest on bank reserves [17]. 3.4 Internal Disagreements and Policy Games: Path Disputes under Rate - Cut Consensus - There is a basic consensus within the Fed on a rate cut in October, but deep differences exist in the future policy path, mainly in the rhythm, amplitude, and subsequent path of rate cuts [19]. - The dovish camp, represented by Stephen Milan and William Williams, advocates more aggressive rate cuts due to employment concerns. The cautious camp, represented by Barr and Jeffrey Schmid, warns about inflation risks [19]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Asset Impact: Confrontation between Expectations and Reality - As the Fed meeting approaches, the market is at a critical juncture from expectation trading to reality verification. The strong rate - cut expectations have been fully priced in, affecting major asset performances [23]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield has fallen below 4% in October 2025, but its further decline depends on the consistency between actual rate - cut paths and market expectations [23]. - The US dollar index is in a multi - empty tug - of - war, with rate - cut expectations pressuring it while geopolitical risks providing support [23]. - The precious metals market is relatively strong under rate - cut expectations but is affected by multiple factors and is expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase in the short term [24].

"这太令人难堪了。"贝森特表示。 据报道，另有官员指出，联邦政府支付军饷的能力可能早在11月15日前就会出现问题。美国军人上一次 发薪是在10月15日。美国总统特朗普当天签署了一份文件，指示联邦政府动用 "所有可用于支出的剩余 资金"，支付现役军人薪酬，但目前尚不清楚这份文件是否适用于即将于10月31日到来的下一个预定发 薪日。 当被问及军人本周晚些时候是否会按时收到薪水时，国会众议院议长约翰逊表示，"我们无法100%确 定。我知道政府和相关各方正竭尽全力解决这个问题，但目前还没有最终结论。" 23日，美国国会参议院民主党人否决了共和党支持的一项法案，该法案本可确保向现役军人和其他在政 府"停摆"期间必须工作的联邦工作人员支付工资。这意味着，美国军人本周可能无法按时拿到工资。 中新网10月28日电据美国《时代》周刊网站28日报道，美国政府官员警告称，如果不能尽快达成协议结 束联邦政府"停摆"，现役军人可能很快面临无薪可领的局面。 报道称，美国财政部长贝森特在接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时说，"本月中旬，我们动用了五角大楼的 剩余资金，得以向军方人员发放薪酬。"他认为，11月初仍能维持发放，但到11月15日，美国政 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 27th day, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, significantly impacting various aspects of American society [1] - If the shutdown remains unresolved this week, an increasing number of Americans will face severe disruptions in their daily lives [1] Group 1: Impact on Social Programs - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced the suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, which will cease distribution on November 1, affecting approximately 42 million people, or one-eighth of the U.S. population, primarily low-income individuals and disabled persons [3] - The Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, which provides nutritional assistance to about 7 million low-income mothers and children, is also on the verge of being halted, with funding expected to run out by November 1 [5] - The "Head Start" program, which supports early childhood education for over 800,000 children under the age of six, will see funding cuts starting November 1 due to the ongoing shutdown [5] Group 2: Impact on Community Services - A subsidy program for airline services in remote small communities is projected to run out of funds this weekend, jeopardizing essential air travel for these areas, which rely on the program for access to daily necessities and medical services [7] - The military is at risk of not receiving pay on the scheduled payday of October 31 if the shutdown continues, with many federal employees facing their first complete paycheck absence on October 28 and 30 [7]

Core Points - The ongoing federal government shutdown is significantly impacting federal employees and social welfare programs, leading to financial strain for many families [2][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Federal Employees - Federal employees, including those from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, have not received their salaries for nearly a month, causing financial distress [2] - Employees express feelings of being used as pawns in the political situation surrounding the shutdown [2] Group 2: Effects on Social Welfare Programs - The shutdown will lead to the suspension of the food stamp program starting November 1, which will adversely affect low-income families [4] - Families relying on food assistance, such as single mothers, face increased challenges in accessing healthy food due to the loss of benefits [6] Group 3: Rising Living Costs - High inflation rates are exacerbating the financial pressures on families, making it difficult for them to manage essential expenses like food, healthcare, and housing [6][8] - Families report feeling overwhelmed by the rising cost of living, which adds to their economic struggles during the shutdown [8]