We're the only country in the world who has every part of the stack where the dominant feature of that stack is built in our country. This is completely unique. So we have a very different problem than say Europe has.America is the only country in the world that provides everything from chips to ontology. The danger we have honestly in this country we have a bounty of riches. So the question is can we grow the aggregate GDP because that's essentially the challenge we have.The advantage for us is we have a v ...

Economic Overview - The US economy is currently facing challenges such as inflation, large deficits, and monetary policy pressures, leading to consumer concerns about affordability and expenses [1][2] - The job market is perceived as tough, particularly for new graduates, indicating potential economic downturn [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown resilience post-pandemic, but hiring momentum has slowed significantly since the beginning of the year [5][6] - Low-wage consumers are experiencing the most uncertainty, which may impact overall consumer spending despite a relatively strong labor market [7][8] Economic Outlook - A modest uptick in economic growth is expected, driven by potential Fed rate cuts, a new tax bill, and clearer tariff policies, with projections suggesting growth above 2% [9][10] - Investor sentiment is characterized as cautiously optimistic, with concerns about the sustainability of corporate profits amid economic uncertainties [11][12] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a complex environment with inflation projections remaining above target, complicating their policy decisions [16][17] - The Fed's actions are seen as critical to the market, but corporate profits are viewed as the primary driver of the bull market [22][25] Technology and AI Impact - The current bull market is heavily influenced by technology and AI, with significant investments expected to continue in this sector [27][40] - Concerns about whether the AI boom represents a bubble are prevalent, but data suggests that while valuations are high, they are not at bubble levels compared to historical standards [28][30] Investment Strategies - There is a strong inclination to remain overweight in technology stocks, particularly those leading the AI charge, as historical trends suggest tech leadership continues through bull markets [45][46] - Mixed sentiments exist regarding sectors like real estate and staples, with expectations of an economic uptick influencing investment strategies [50][51]

ANNA: THANK YOU. VALERIE TYTEL. OUR REPORTER SKYLAR, VERY NICE TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM.IT SEEMS AS IF THE END OF THE SHUTDOWN HAS PROVIDED SOME POSITIVE MOMENTUM. IS THIS A DRIVER HIGHER FOR STOCKS AND FOR GOLD IT WOULD SEEM THAT HAS LEGS. ABSOLUTELY.WE HAVE SEEN THE MOMENTUM BEHIND THE EQUITY MARKS. THIS IS ANOTHER POSITIVE DRIVER. THE MAIN POINT IS GROWTH.THAT IS WHAT EQUITIES CARE ABOUT. YOU HAVE THE U.S. SHUTDOWN. YOU CAN GET BOOSTED.I THINK THE OTHER BIT OF THE PUZZLE IS YES, YOU'RE LIKELY TO HAVE W ...

Poland's GDP increased 3.7% in the July-September period from a year ago https://t.co/ONg9EjloPb ...

Economic Performance - The UK's GDP for Q3 2025 shows a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.3% in Q2 and below the market expectation of 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year growth stands at 1.3%, slightly below the anticipated 1.4% [1] - The services sector grew by 0.2%, while construction saw a marginal increase of 0.1%, but the production sector contracted by 0.5% [1] Industrial Output - Industrial output experienced a significant decline of 2.0% in September, reversing the previous month's growth of 0.3%, marking the largest monthly drop since January 2021 [1] - Manufacturing output fell by 1.7%, with a notable decrease of 28.6% in the production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers [1] - Year-on-year industrial output decreased by 2.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 1.2% decline [1] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit narrowed to £1.09 billion in September, the smallest level since January, with the previous value revised to £1.28 billion [2] - Exports fell by 0.9% to £77.21 billion, the lowest in three months, while imports decreased by 1.1% to £78.3 billion, reaching an eight-month low [2] - Exports to the EU dropped by 2.7%, primarily due to reduced fuel exports, and exports to non-EU countries fell by 8.0%, with a significant 11.4% decline in exports to the US [2] Business Investment - Business investment declined by 0.3% in the three months to September, better than the expected 0.7% drop, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline [2] - Year-on-year growth in business investment slowed to 0.7%, significantly lower than the previous quarter's 3.0% [2] - However, gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.8%, supported by investments in information and communication technology, machinery, housing, and intellectual property products [2] Construction Sector - The construction sector showed a notable rebound, with orders increasing by 29.3% year-on-year in Q3, the fastest growth since Q4 2021, reversing the previous quarter's decline of 11.7% [3] - Seasonally adjusted, construction orders grew by 9.8% [3] - Public housing orders surged by 72.9%, new housing orders rose by 17.0%, and private housing orders increased by 9.2% [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Despite positive contributions from net trade and a strong rebound in construction activity, the deep contraction in industrial production and ongoing weakness in business investment indicate structural pressures on the UK economy amid high interest rates and weakened external demand [3]

Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown negatively impacted the current quarter GDP, preventing it from reaching its expected potential [2] - The shutdown led to a plunge in consumer confidence in the government [5] - The reopening of the government is expected to restore confidence and provide crucial economic data for policymaking [5] Economic Outlook - The economy was robust, with over 4% growth in both the second and third quarters, excluding the federal sector [4] - The administration is optimistic about real GDP growth in 2026 [6] - Lowering interest rates is crucial for increasing affordability, with mortgage rates already at 52-week lows [11] Fiscal Policy & Spending - Federal spending has decreased, with 74% of last year's fiscal deficit occurring under the current administration [10] - Republicans aim to maintain fiscal discipline to lower interest rates [11] - Discussions involve subsidies, including those related to Obamacare, with concerns about eligibility and potential misuse [9][10] Government Funding & Negotiations - A continuing resolution (CR) is expected to pass, providing short-term funding and preventing another shutdown in January [8] - Negotiations are ongoing, with potential disagreements on spending levels and priorities [8][9]

Indonesia has an unhealthy attachment to implausible GDP targets, says @Moss_Eco. What's wrong with 5% growth? (via @opinion) https://t.co/kSFxZNLrS3 ...

Michael Bapis. I I'll hit you first here as we uh go towards the closure about two minutes, three minutes away or so. You say there's a lot of cautious optimism in markets.I'll give you there's like volatility came back last week, but do you you feel there's a lot of caution. Look, I think one of the key themes that we're looking at is the battle between, you know, consumer spending and consumer consumer sentiment being down and like you just said, strong equity markets. I mean, we're getting to more now wh ...

Economic Outlook - GDP growth expectations for Q4 are projected at 1%, with Q1 at 1.3% [2] - Earnings growth expectations for Q4 are flat quarter over quarter, with eight of the eleven S&P sectors expected to show sequential negative earnings growth [2][4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see sequential positive earnings growth due to seasonal factors, while most other sectors are anticipated to post negative earnings growth [4] - There has been a noticeable shift in investor sentiment regarding the labor market, AI bubble, and private credit concerns over the past few weeks [6][7] Investment Sentiment - Investor positioning has shifted from being underinvested and ready to buy dips to expressing significant concerns about market risks [6] - The potential cliff event for AI capital expenditures is anticipated between 2026 and 2027, suggesting a borrowing of growth into 2026 that may impact future growth [9]