Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown negatively impacted the current quarter GDP, preventing it from reaching its expected potential [2] - The shutdown led to a plunge in consumer confidence in the government [5] - The reopening of the government is expected to restore confidence and provide crucial economic data for policymaking [5] Economic Outlook - The economy was robust, with over 4% growth in both the second and third quarters, excluding the federal sector [4] - The administration is optimistic about real GDP growth in 2026 [6] - Lowering interest rates is crucial for increasing affordability, with mortgage rates already at 52-week lows [11] Fiscal Policy & Spending - Federal spending has decreased, with 74% of last year's fiscal deficit occurring under the current administration [10] - Republicans aim to maintain fiscal discipline to lower interest rates [11] - Discussions involve subsidies, including those related to Obamacare, with concerns about eligibility and potential misuse [9][10] Government Funding & Negotiations - A continuing resolution (CR) is expected to pass, providing short-term funding and preventing another shutdown in January [8] - Negotiations are ongoing, with potential disagreements on spending levels and priorities [8][9]

Indonesia has an unhealthy attachment to implausible GDP targets, says @Moss_Eco. What's wrong with 5% growth? (via @opinion) https://t.co/kSFxZNLrS3 ...

Michael Bapis. I I'll hit you first here as we uh go towards the closure about two minutes, three minutes away or so. You say there's a lot of cautious optimism in markets.I'll give you there's like volatility came back last week, but do you you feel there's a lot of caution. Look, I think one of the key themes that we're looking at is the battle between, you know, consumer spending and consumer consumer sentiment being down and like you just said, strong equity markets. I mean, we're getting to more now wh ...

Economic Outlook - GDP growth expectations for Q4 are projected at 1%, with Q1 at 1.3% [2] - Earnings growth expectations for Q4 are flat quarter over quarter, with eight of the eleven S&P sectors expected to show sequential negative earnings growth [2][4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see sequential positive earnings growth due to seasonal factors, while most other sectors are anticipated to post negative earnings growth [4] - There has been a noticeable shift in investor sentiment regarding the labor market, AI bubble, and private credit concerns over the past few weeks [6][7] Investment Sentiment - Investor positioning has shifted from being underinvested and ready to buy dips to expressing significant concerns about market risks [6] - The potential cliff event for AI capital expenditures is anticipated between 2026 and 2027, suggesting a borrowing of growth into 2026 that may impact future growth [9]

Core Viewpoint - The debate over whether China's GDP surpasses that of the United States has intensified amid growing competition between the two nations, with claims that China's GDP has already exceeded that of the U.S. when calculated using different methodologies [1][7]. Economic Comparison - According to U.S. calculations, the U.S. remains the leader in GDP, but this is challenged by claims of a more accurate representation of China's economic strength [1]. - Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate, criticized the U.S. economy for relying on statistical manipulation to create an illusion of prosperity without corresponding production capacity [2]. Contribution to GDP - The contribution of intellectual property to the U.S. GDP is reported at 41%, while financial transactions contribute 12.7% and healthcare spending accounts for 17.6% [2][3]. - The high costs of healthcare in the U.S. are highlighted, with examples of significant expenses for basic medical needs, indicating inefficiencies in the system [3]. Energy Consumption as a Productivity Indicator - China's electricity generation increased by 42% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 10.1 trillion kilowatt-hours, while the U.S. saw only a 4.9% increase to 4.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, suggesting a weaker U.S. real economy [5]. - The energy consumption of a country is presented as a key indicator of its productivity, with China's growth in this area outpacing that of the U.S. [5]. Purchasing Power Parity - When using purchasing power parity (PPP) for comparison, China's economy is estimated to exceed the U.S. by $10 trillion, and by $15 trillion when using U.S. calculation methods [7]. - The metaphor of a balloon versus a solid ball is used to illustrate the perceived superficiality of U.S. economic strength compared to the tangible assets of China's economy [7].

高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉降中国2026与2027年GDP预期分别从4.3%和4.0%上调至4.8%与4.7%（2019年以来最大幅度的预期上调），理由是出口韧性强、中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及“十五五”规划带来的政策动力增强。闪辉表示，此次习特会表明，中国现在在贸易谈判中拥有了重要的筹码，尤其是在控制稀土出口方面，美国可能更难进一步加征关税。高盛还援引了中国近期召开的四中全会和“十五五”规划的成果，这些成果强调技术自主和产业竞争力。政策制定者旨在加大对高科技制造业和创新的投入，以此作为经济增长的驱动力，取代对房地产和基础设施的依赖。尽管这一战略可能迅速提振出口和企业利润，但闪辉警告称，提振家庭消费可能需要更长时间。高盛还指出，AI崛起有望在未来十年内将中国的长期增长潜力提升高达8%，从而有助于抵消人口结构和结构性不利因素。 ...

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - US government shutdown's impact on the economy is more severe than expected [1] - US Q4 GDP may experience negative growth if the government shutdown continues [1] - The economy may rebound quickly once the shutdown ends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance of various cities in China during the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting GDP growth rates and the emergence of new economic powerhouses among both traditional and non-traditional cities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Major Cities - Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are leading in GDP growth, supported by high-tech industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles [2][3]. - Guangzhou's economy is stabilizing with significant improvements in industrial output and foreign trade, which increased by 12.5% [2]. - Ningbo has surpassed Tianjin in GDP, while Qingdao is closing in on Tianjin, indicating a potential shift in economic rankings among northern cities [3]. Group 2: Emerging Cities and Economic Clubs - The number of trillion-yuan GDP cities is expected to increase, with cities like Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian vying for entry into the trillion-yuan club [11][12]. - Wenzhou has shown consistent GDP growth exceeding 6% for ten consecutive quarters, driven by industrial contributions, particularly in electronics and automotive manufacturing [15]. - Xuzhou is recognized for its engineering machinery industry, benefiting from major domestic and international projects, while Dalian's strengths lie in its port and shipping capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: Non-Capital City Dynamics - The competition for the title of the leading non-capital city in Central and Western China is intensifying, with cities like Luoyang, Xiangyang, and Yichang emerging as contenders [20][21]. - Yichang has the highest GDP growth rate among the top 50 cities, driven by industrial diversification and emerging sectors like lithium batteries and biomedicine [22]. - The success of non-capital cities heavily relies on their industrial base and the development of new industries, as they lack the administrative advantages of capital cities [23][24].

Core Insights - The current job market is showing signs of weakness, potentially nearing the worst conditions in 50 years outside of a recession [1][2] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, with job openings and hiring trends continuing to decline [4][5] - The GDP is projected to be around 3.6% for the current quarter, but labor market indicators are deemed more reliable for assessing economic health [8][9] Employment Trends - Confidence numbers indicate a low expected change in the unemployment rate, typically seen only during recessions [3] - Layoff notices and announcements are increasing, raising concerns about future employment stability [7] - Current employment growth metrics suggest a stagnation rather than improvement, with weak job openings and hiring [6] Economic Indicators - GDP growth appears strong at 3.6%, but is influenced by inventory changes and front-loading effects [8] - Labor market data is prioritized over GDP figures for a clearer picture of economic conditions [9] - Inflation numbers are generally positive, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December despite uncertainties [15] Technology Impact - There is speculation that technology, particularly AI, may be impacting the labor market more quickly than previously anticipated, although current trends are largely attributed to post-pandemic conditions [11][12]

Group 1 - Three cities in China are expected to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan this year, namely Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian, following the release of the third-quarter GDP data [2] - Wuxi achieved a GDP of 11,885.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [2] Group 2 - Elon Musk's compensation plan includes 12 tranches of stock, potentially increasing his ownership in Tesla from approximately 13% to 25% if all performance targets are met [3] - Tesla's current market value is around 1.5 trillion dollars, and Musk can unlock stock options if the company's valuation reaches 2 trillion dollars and sales hit 11.5 million vehicles [3] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will bring economic benefits to member regions and globally [5] - The Ministry is analyzing the macroeconomic impact of China's potential membership, indicating a win-win scenario for all parties involved [5] Group 4 - The National Medical Insurance Administration is launching a pilot program for intelligent review processes in medical insurance, integrating AI technology to enhance efficiency [6] - The initiative aims to standardize review processes across regions by developing a universal knowledge and rules database [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association is emphasizing the implementation of new tax policies related to gold, urging members to comply with regulations and improve product quality [7] - The association aims to ensure stable market development while adhering to the new tax guidelines [7] Group 6 - Shenzhen is promoting collaboration between the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and major exchanges in countries where sovereign funds are based, aiming to enhance cross-border investment mechanisms [8] - The initiative includes support for sovereign funds to establish offices in Shenzhen and participate in local investment trials [8] Group 7 - The Ordos Municipal Health Commission announced a new child-rearing subsidy policy, providing an annual subsidy of 10,000 yuan for families with a third child, exceeding the national standard [9] - The policy aims to encourage higher birth rates by offering financial support to families [9] Group 8 - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital, marking the first time the company has relinquished control of its core business in China [25] - The joint venture will see Boyu holding up to 60% of the new entity, reflecting the competitive landscape and strategic challenges faced by international coffee brands in the Chinese market [25]