Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [51]. Core Insights - The Eurozone's investor confidence index saw a significant rebound in March, with the Sentix index rising to -2.9, surpassing expectations of -8.4 and the previous value of -12.7 [8]. - In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February was lower than expected, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an unexpected decline [7][9]. - The U.S. financial conditions are tightening, while the Eurozone is experiencing a loosening of financial conditions, as indicated by the Bloomberg financial conditions index [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Data Review - U.S. February PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.5% [7]. - Eurozone's investor confidence index rebounded significantly in March [8]. - Japan's GDP for Q4 2024 was slightly revised down [7]. 2. Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. WEI index rose to 2.65% for the week of March 8, up from 2.24% the previous week [14]. - Germany's WAI index increased to 0.51% for the week of March 9, compared to 0.24% the previous week [14]. 3. Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, decreased to 5.7% year-on-year from 6.6% the previous week [17]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose slightly to 6.65%, while mortgage applications increased by 11.2% [20]. 4. Employment - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 220,000, down from 222,000 the previous week [22]. 5. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index was 302.67, showing a 0.1% decline from the previous week [25]. - U.S. gasoline prices decreased to $2.95 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [25]. 6. Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.20, down from 0.27 the previous week, indicating tightening conditions [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has worsened, with the yen and euro swap basis against the dollar showing declines [28]. 7. Bond Yield Spread - The 10-year bond yield spread between Germany and Portugal narrowed, with spreads of -49.3bp and -106.0bp respectively [33].

危险信号！ 一份来自亚特兰大联储的GDP预测，让投资者再度担心美国的经济前景。如果美国一季度的GDP增速如模型预测萎缩2.825%，那将是新冠疫情后美国经济首 次出现负增长。 上周五，GDPNow模型就将美国第一季度GDP预期为收缩1.5%，而在一个月前，该模型的预测是增长2.33%。也就是说，短短一个月时间，该模型就连续做 出美国一季度经济将出现大幅收缩的预测。 如果该模型的预测最终成真，那美国季度GDP将创下2020年二季度收缩7.5%后的最差表现。过去二十年，美国季度GDP仅在2008年金融危机和2020年新冠疫 情期间出现过收缩。 据了解，上周五的预测主要基于美国贸易逆差的扩大。根据美国商务部发布的数据，美国1月商品贸易逆差创纪录地扩大至-1530亿美元，而市场预期为-1160 亿美元，贸易逆差的急剧扩大主要是由于美国企业在关税生效前抢购进口商品有关。此外，还有相当一部分逆差是由黄金进口激增所推动的。 而最新的预测和上周五不同，亚特兰大联储一季度GDP预测之所以从-1.5%暴跌至-2.8%，部分归因于周一公布的美国ISM制造业调查数据下滑：ISM制造业指 数从50.9（扩张）下降至50.3（仍然处于扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. increasing tariffs on China to 20%, particularly focusing on the economic implications and China's response strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - A 20% tariff could reduce China's nominal GDP by approximately 0.69 percentage points, translating to a potential real GDP growth reduction of about 0.49 percentage points, assuming no other variables change [1][5]. - The estimated impact on total export growth could range from -2.61% to -4.70%, depending on the elasticity of export prices [2]. - Key industries such as chemicals, textiles, and machinery, which have a higher export share to the U.S. (10-15%), are expected to face significant challenges due to the tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response Strategies - China has adopted a principle of rapid response and precise countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs on U.S. coal and fuel [3][4]. - Measures include anti-monopoly investigations targeting major U.S. tech companies and export controls on critical minerals needed for U.S. military and high-tech manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Future Macro Policy Considerations - The Chinese government is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding macroeconomic policies, with no immediate need for intervention as the economy shows signs of stabilization [5]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, it is estimated that fiscal measures would need to be between 0.62 trillion to 1.33 trillion yuan to offset the economic impact, with a median estimate of 0.98 trillion yuan being a suitable scale for counteraction [5].

2024 年全国 GDP 达到 134.91 万亿元，约 18.94 万亿美元。而美国 2024 年 GDP 为 29.2 万亿美 元，我国 GDP 总量已经达到美国近 65% 。 31 个省份中，广东依然以 14.16 万亿元 GDP 总量排在全国首位，江苏以 13.70 万亿元排在第二。 广东和江苏也是全国 31 个省份中唯二 GDP 总量超过 10 万亿元的省份。 山东以 9.86 万亿元 GDP 总量排在全国第三，浙江以 9.01 万亿元排在全国第四。 另有四川（ 6.47 万亿）、河南（ 6.36 万亿）和湖北（ 6.00 万亿）三省 GDP 总量超过 6 万亿元； 福建（ 5.78 万亿）、上海（ 5.39 万亿）、湖南（ 5.32 万亿）和安徽（ 5.06 万亿）四省 GDP 总量超过 5 万亿元。 全国 31 个省份中排名前十的省份 2024 年 GDP 总量均超过 5 万亿元。 四个直辖市中上海 GDP 总量超过 5 万亿元，北京为 4.98 万亿元，重庆为 3.22 万亿元，天津为 1.80 万亿元。 海南（ 0.79 万亿）、宁夏（ 0.55 万亿）、青海（ 0.40 万亿）和西藏（ 0 ...