RT Kaps (@0xKaps)What is MegaGDP? 🤔but first let’s understand GDPGDP = the total value of goods and services produced in a country. think of it as a scorecard for a country’s economic health.now in web3, we can borrow this idea for a blockchain.MegaGDP is basically:the total economic activity happening on the MegaETH chain.This includes things like- Trading volume on DEXs and- Lending & borrowing activity- MegaUSD- NFT mints & marketplace volume- Onchain apps & other stablecoins- any other onchain transacti ...

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]

Economic Commentary - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is perceived as masking economic pain rather than reporting reality [1] - GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a primary metric atomizes humans into economic units, neglecting the standard of living and individual flourishing [1] - The share of young adults living with parents has reached levels not seen since the Great Depression [2]

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s a flying taxi! @JNBPage and @sarah_wu_ examine China’s plan to “draw GDP from the sky”, on “Drum Tower” https://t.co/DpbIxVN5hq ...

Economic Overview - Year-over-year inflation is reported at 2.9%, which remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - Recent economic data shows a decrease in the trade deficit and strong durable goods reports, leading forecasters to raise GDP estimates for the third quarter [2] Inflation Insights - Inflation is considered tame based on month-over-month data, although tariffs are expected to create a temporary increase in inflation [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is advised to look beyond tariff-induced price increases, as these do not reflect genuine demand in the economy [4] GDP Projections - The Atlanta Fed has increased its GDP estimate for the third quarter to the high 3% range, while Goldman Sachs projects mid-2% growth, indicating decent but not excessive growth [9] - The first half of the year saw GDP growth under 2%, with the first quarter being negative [9] Retail and Consumer Spending - The upcoming fourth quarter is critical for assessing the impact of tariffs on consumer spending, particularly during the holiday season when retail firms typically generate significant profits [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in the next two meetings [11][13] - Payroll growth has significantly decreased, with estimates for the upcoming employment report suggesting only 50,000 new jobs, compared to previous estimates of 150,000 to 300,000 [12]

Ask Wharton School professor of finance and wisdom chief economist Jeremy Seagull. Uh, Professor Seagull, what was your take on on the report today. Obviously came in line as expected, but year-over-year inflation at the headline up 2.9% still above the Fed's target rate.>> Yeah, most certainly. But but the news was good. It hit all the targets.Uh, nothing no upside uh surprise and and yesterday strong strong economic data. I think that uh both on the the trade deficit going down and on the durable goods re ...

But is the data reflecting the inflationary impact of tariffs. Let's discuss with Joe Leavourne, counselor to Treasury Secretary uh Bessant and here on set with me. It's great to see you, Joe. >> Great to be here.Thank you. >> All right, so inflation data that we got this morning. Core PCE basically in line with the month prior and actually we saw the month before that revised lower as well.What is that telling us. >> Actually, I like to look at the goods piece because that's where the tariffs would show up ...

Core Insights - The recent PCE data showed no surprises, indicating inflation remains a concern, particularly with core PCE at 2.9% year-over-year, which is above the Fed's target [2][3][6] - There is a divergence in views among Fed officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, complicating future monetary policy decisions [3][8] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, but current economic data, including a revised GDP growth of 2.5% and strong consumer spending, suggests resilience [6][7] Inflation and Economic Data - Core PCE inflation is still considered too high, leading to potential discussions on rate cuts at upcoming Fed meetings [2][3] - Inflation expectations have shown some decline in consumer sentiment surveys, which may provide a more optimistic outlook [4] - The upcoming labor market report is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for future Fed decisions [5][7] Market Reactions and Yield Trends - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently fluctuating around 4.18%, with expectations that it may remain in this range despite potential Fed rate cuts [10][11] - Elevated inflation and fiscal concerns are likely to keep long-term yields high, impacting mortgage rates and housing market pressures [11][12][13] - The relationship between long-term yields and the Fed funds rate is under scrutiny, as investors may demand higher yields in an inflationary environment [11][12]

（文章来源：第一财经） 加拿大7月GDP环比升0.2%，前值降0.1%。加拿大7月GDP同比升0.9%，前值升0.9%。 ...

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