Economic Statistics & Independence - The importance of believing in reliable statistics about unemployment, inflation, and GDP for managing business and the economy is highlighted [1] - Independent statistical agencies are crucial for collecting data, and maintaining confidence in their independence is paramount, with bipartisan agreement on this principle [1] - Undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) can lead to concerns about inflation and erode confidence in the US dollar and the US economy [1] Political Influence & Economic Policy - Concerns are raised about the potential politicization of interest rates, fearing that rates might be lowered before elections to inflate the economy, leading to adverse consequences after the election [1] - Pressure on the Fed, as exerted by Donald Trump, is considered unconscionable because it undermines the Fed's credibility [1] - Historically, presidents have desired certain economic outcomes, such as lower interest rates, and have exerted pressure on Fed chairs [1]

Tariff Negotiations - On July 9, President Trump announced a delay in "reciprocal" tariffs until August 1, with a commitment that this date "will not change" [2] - By August 1, the U.S. had reached trade agreements with most major trading countries, reducing uncertainty around tariff policies [2] - The new tariff rates are expected to be lower than previous proposals but will still range from 10% to 20% for various countries [16] Economic Impact - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs could generate $2.3 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government over the next 10 years, assuming import shares remain unchanged [3] - The increase in tariffs may lead to a 1.8% rise in consumer prices in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not respond with policy changes [17] - The tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 due to increased consumer burden and retaliatory measures [17] Currency and Investment - Increased investment in the U.S. and procurement of American goods may support the dollar's exchange rate and facilitate the return of manufacturing [24] - The combination of trade surplus and capital inflow could lead to a temporary appreciation of the dollar [24] Inflation and Federal Reserve Response - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become fully evident in July and August, with price adjustments typically occurring 1-3 months after tariff implementation [25] - Following recent comments from Fed Chair Powell, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50% [25] Risk Factors - There are significant geopolitical risks that could exceed expectations, potentially impacting trade agreements and economic stability [35]

Economic Analysis - The podcast discusses the latest GDP numbers [1] - The podcast features @krogoff's perspective on the GDP numbers [1] Political Commentary - President Donald Trump's policies are compared to a game of "4D chess" [1]

Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's GDP is projected at 134.9 trillion yuan (approximately 18.94 trillion USD), while the US GDP is expected to reach 29.2 trillion USD, widening the gap to 10 trillion USD, with China's share decreasing from 67% to 65% [1] - The US nominal GDP growth is significantly influenced by high inflation, with a cumulative price increase of 21.2% over the past four years, while China's CPI only increased by 0.2% in 2024, indicating a more stable economic environment [3][4] Statistical Methodology - The US includes imputed rent in its GDP calculations, which allowed it to "gain" 610 billion USD in Q1 2025, a method not applicable in China, which uses a production-based approach for GDP accounting [4] - The difference in statistical methodologies highlights the disparity in economic reporting and the potential for manipulation of GDP figures [4] Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - According to the International Monetary Fund, China's PPP GDP is projected to reach 39.44 trillion international dollars by 2025, surpassing the US's 30.34 trillion international dollars by 30% [6] - The purchasing power of consumers in China is significantly higher, with the ability to buy more goods for the same amount of money compared to the US, indicating a stronger domestic economy [6] Technological Competition - The economic rivalry is increasingly focused on technological advancements, with China investing heavily in hard technology, achieving significant milestones in 5G, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion [9] - In contrast, US R&D investment intensity has decreased, while military spending has reached a record high of 886 billion USD, indicating a shift in focus from innovation to defense [9] Crisis Management and Economic Resilience - In Q4 2024, China's economic growth accelerated to 5.4%, driven by high-tech manufacturing, while US corporate investment declined by 2.2% [11] - China's proactive approach to managing real estate bubbles and maintaining foreign exchange reserves of 3.2 trillion USD contrasts sharply with the US's rising commercial real estate delinquency rates [11]

On Everybody’s Business, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff explains the role of panic in US GDP numbers. Also on this episode, a North Korean US workforce and alcohol energy drinks https://t.co/ljTy717v19 ...

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @krogoff joins @svaneksmith and @chafkin to give his take on the latest GDP numbers and why President Donald Trump's policies can be compared to a game of "4D chess" https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/PumBetS8tb ...

每经AI快讯，7月31日消息，加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%，预期下降0.1%；同比增长1.2%，预期增长 1.1%。 ...

智通财经7月31日电，加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%，预期下降0.1%；同比增长1.2%，预期增长1.1%。 ...

加拿大5月GDP同比 1.2%，预期 1.1%，前值 1.3%。 ...

（文章来源：华尔街见闻） 提醒：北京时间20:30，将公布美国6月PCE物价指数、美国7月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数、加拿 大5月GDP。 ...