文 / 高歌 有关此次"十五五"规划建议提出 的 出台城乡居民增收计划，杨伟民认为，这一计划会提出更多可操 作、可检查的指标和有力度的政策，实实在在地增加全体 居民 特别是低收入群体的 收入 ，如此从 消费到 经济增长 才能更好地循环起来。 有关经济增长增速，经济增长保持在合理区间的标志是到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平。 《党的二十届四中全会〈建议〉学习辅导百问》对经济增速进行解读，其中提到，2025年到2035 年，经济增长需要年均增长4.17%。 "考虑到基数越大增速递减，我认为'十五五'时期如果增速是4.5%，那么'十六五' 时期则为 4%，以 此十年平均，大体上为4.2%。"杨伟民表示 ：" 不仅 实际增长，名义增长也要保持在4.5%以上。 " 之所以强调名义增长，是因为自2023年以来，中国的名义增长都是低于实际增长的，即GDP平减指 数为负。 12月27日，第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任杨伟民在中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会表 示，"十五五"时期化解供强需弱 矛盾的 症结在于分配，需在分配结构优化方面取得重大突破。 "供给结构是需求结构的函数，需求结构是收入结构的函数 。 国民收 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrates strong resilience amid multiple pressures, achieving a GDP of 1,015,036 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price changes [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The nominal GDP increased from 975,357.4 billion RMB in the previous year to 1,015,036 billion RMB, with a net increase of 39,678.6 billion RMB, resulting in a nominal growth rate of 4.1% [3][4]. - The difference between the nominal growth rate and the real growth rate indicates a price level decline of approximately 1.1% compared to 2020, suggesting some "contraction" pressure [3][4]. Future Projections - If the current economic recovery momentum continues, a real economic growth of around 5.1% is expected for the entire year of 2025, with nominal GDP projected to increase by approximately 4% from 2024, reaching between 140 trillion and 141 trillion RMB [4][6]. - The GDP in USD terms for the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated at approximately 141,681.89 billion USD, maintaining China's position as the second-largest economy globally [6][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - Robust macroeconomic policies have provided a solid foundation for stable economic performance, with proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies enhancing market vitality [10]. - The acceleration of new and old kinetic energy conversion, particularly in high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, is driving economic growth [10]. - Continuous release of domestic demand potential and effective investment in infrastructure and green transformation are contributing to economic stability [10]. Challenges Ahead - Despite positive growth indicators, challenges remain, including insufficient effective demand in certain sectors and rising uncertainties in the external environment [11]. - The focus will be on maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to ensure high-quality development and consolidate the positive economic recovery trend [11][12].

Economic Overview - Year-over-year inflation is reported at 2.9%, which remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - Recent economic data shows a decrease in the trade deficit and strong durable goods reports, leading forecasters to raise GDP estimates for the third quarter [2] Inflation Insights - Inflation is considered tame based on month-over-month data, although tariffs are expected to create a temporary increase in inflation [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is advised to look beyond tariff-induced price increases, as these do not reflect genuine demand in the economy [4] GDP Projections - The Atlanta Fed has increased its GDP estimate for the third quarter to the high 3% range, while Goldman Sachs projects mid-2% growth, indicating decent but not excessive growth [9] - The first half of the year saw GDP growth under 2%, with the first quarter being negative [9] Retail and Consumer Spending - The upcoming fourth quarter is critical for assessing the impact of tariffs on consumer spending, particularly during the holiday season when retail firms typically generate significant profits [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in the next two meetings [11][13] - Payroll growth has significantly decreased, with estimates for the upcoming employment report suggesting only 50,000 new jobs, compared to previous estimates of 150,000 to 300,000 [12]