5. 周五：①数据：英国5月三个月GDP月率、制造业产出月率、季调后商品贸易帐、工业产出月率；法 国6月CPI月率终值；瑞士6月消费者信心指数；加拿大6月就业人数。②事件：美联储戴利就美国经济 前景发表讲话；IEA月报。 6. 周六：①数据：美国至7月11日当周石油钻井总数。 3. 周三：①数据：美国API、EIA原油库存周报、美国5月批发销售月率；中国6月CPI；新西兰利率决 定。②事件：EIA月度短期能源展望报告；新西兰联储利率决议和货币政策评估报告、主席奥尔召开新 闻发布会；美国对等关税暂停期结束。 4. 周四：①数据：美国10年期国债竞拍、初请失业金人数、EIA天然气库存；德国6月CPI月率终值；中 国6月M2货币供应年率。②事件：美联储会议纪要、美联储穆萨莱姆就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。 ③2025中国汽车论坛将于10日~12日召开。 金十数据整理：下周重要事件与数据预告——中国外汇储备、CPI重磅公布 美联储会议纪要与美国对等 关税暂停期结束两面夹击 1. 周一：①数据：德国5月季调后工业产出月率；英国6月Halifax季调后房价指数月率；欧元区7月 Sentix投资者信心指数、5月零售销售月率 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $90, or 0.9%, closing at $9,864.5 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $10,020.5 earlier in the week [1] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $15 to $2,590.0, zinc down $26.5 to $2,724.0, lead down $5.5 to $2,058.5, nickel down $161 to $15,290.0, and tin down $146 to $33,702.0 [2][6][7][8][9][10] - Market sentiment is cautious as major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and India, continue negotiations with the U.S. regarding trade agreements, with potential tariffs looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job report showed an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The market anticipates a 95.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting, up from 76.2% earlier [4] - Guinea's bauxite exports are projected to increase by 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record 99.8 million tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 75% of SEA3 Company by Zhonghong Medical for a mere 6.97 yuan highlights a strategic move to expand its presence in Southeast Asia amidst changing international trade environments [2][4][9]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Zhonghong Medical's wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhonghong Hong Kong, and its subsidiary, Guilin Hengbao Protective International Co., Ltd., signed agreements to acquire 75% of SEA3 Company [3]. - The total transaction price for the 75% stake in SEA3 Company is 6.97 yuan, with Zhonghong Hong Kong paying 4.88 yuan and Guilin Hengbao paying 2.09 yuan [4]. - SEA3 Company, established in September 2016, has total assets of 1.41 billion yuan and a net asset value of -120.19 million yuan as of the end of last year [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, SEA3 Company reported total assets of 1.36 billion yuan and a net asset value of -492.40 million yuan, with a revenue of 655.62 million yuan and a loss of 372.21 million yuan in the first quarter of this year [6][7]. - The valuation of SEA3 Company's shareholder equity was assessed at 802,300 yuan, representing a 142% increase from its book value of -1.91 million yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The acquisition aims to establish a production base for medical gloves in Southeast Asia, allowing Zhonghong Medical to mitigate the impact of tariffs imposed on Chinese-made disposable gloves by the U.S. [8][10]. - The medical glove industry is expected to grow due to increasing global health awareness, and the company plans to leverage its management experience and cash flow to help SEA3 Company achieve profitability [11]. - However, challenges such as language and cultural differences may pose management difficulties post-acquisition [11].

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

（央视财经《正点财经》）针对美国总统特朗普1日威胁将对日本征收更高关税，日本首相石破茂2日回 应称，将竭尽全力维护国家利益。石破茂强调日方在这一问题上的基本原则是 "与其加征关税，不如通 过贸易维护自身利益"。 日本政府一直坚持将美方所谓 "对等关税"和加征的汽车关税、钢铝关税等捆绑在一起进行谈判，要求 美方全面取消这些不合理的关税措施。负责日美关税谈判的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正已多次赴美，与 美方就关税问题进行谈判，但并未取得突破。据朝日电视台报道，他正在准备最早于本周末第八次访美 进行贸易磋商 。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 日本首相 石破茂：我们会竭尽全力维护国家利益，许多国家都与美国有贸易往来，但我必须指出的一 点是和其他国家相比，日本是美国最大的海外投资国，我们为美国创造了最多的就业岗位。我们的基本 原则是与其加征关税，不如通过贸易来维护国家利益。 据日本共同社报道，日本内阁官房副长官青木一彦2日在新闻发布会上表示，日方希望以"真诚的方 式"推进双边谈判，以达成一项对日本和美国都有利的协议。 美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同日本等国谈判的最后期限即将到来。就美日正在进行的谈判，特朗普1 日在总统 ...

美股科技股反弹。 当地时间7月2日（周三），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500指数创收盘历史新高。消息面上，美国总统特朗普宣布已与越南达成贸易协议。6月 ADP私人就业人数意外下降，引发对美国经济状况的担忧，投资者的乐观情绪受到限制。 截至收盘，道指跌10.52点，跌幅为0.02%，报44484.42点；纳指涨190.24点，涨幅为0.94%，报20393.13点；标普500指数涨29.41点，涨幅为0.47%，报 6227.42点。 周三盘中，标普500指数最高上涨至6227.60点，创盘中历史新高。 "小非农"就业数据爆冷 特斯拉交付量连续两个季度下滑 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块七涨四跌。能源板块和材料板块分别以1.70%和1.33%的涨幅领涨，医疗板块和公用事业板块分别以0.97%和0.87%的跌 幅领跌。 大型科技股多数上涨。甲骨文涨超5%，特斯拉涨超4%，台积电、超微电脑涨超3%，英伟达、苹果涨超2%，博通、高通、超威半导体、谷歌-A、阿斯麦、波 音涨超1%，微软、亚马逊、奈飞、Meta小幅下跌，英特尔跌超4%。 周三早间公布的"小非农"ADP就业报告显示，美国6月私营就业人数减少3 ...

智通财经7月2日电，据CCTV国际时讯，针对美国总统特朗普7月1日威胁对日本征收更高关税，日本首 相石破茂7月2日在就即将举行的参议院选举进行的党首讨论会上回应称，"与其加征关税，不如通过贸 易来维护国家利益。"他强调，"和其他国家相比，日本是美国最大的海外投资国，日本为美国创造了最 多的就业岗位"。7月9日是美国政府暂停征收所谓"对等关税"90天的截止期限。7月1日，特朗普称， 他"可以对从日本进口的商品征收30%或35%或任何我们确定数字的关税"——而这高于他4月2日宣布过 的对日本商品24%的关税税率。 石破茂回应美威胁对日加征更高关税 ...

换资前言： 面对剧烈波动的市场行情，我们需要的是等待机会，一击而中，而不是在频繁的交易中迷失自己！合理 的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请 对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常 做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（7月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3340美元/盎司附近。特朗普减税议案点燃 避险热潮，美联储降息预期再升温 ，黄金市场在2025年7月初迎来了新一轮的上涨热潮，现货黄金价格 周二飙升逾1%，触及6月24日以来的最高水平3357.82美元/盎司，收盘报3338.77美元/盎司，为连续两 个交易日上涨。这一涨势不仅受到美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案的推动，还与即将到 来的7月9日贸易关税暂停期限、全球储备货币格局的讨论以及美联储货币政策的最新动向密切相关。日 内将可关注美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国6月ADP就业人数(万人)等数据，市场预期偏向利 空金价 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policies - President Trump stated he does not plan to extend the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations with various countries, expressing skepticism about reaching an agreement with Japan. He mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs as high as 30% or 35% on Japanese imports, significantly above the previously announced 24% [2] Group 2: Film Industry - The domestic film market in China achieved a record high in box office revenue for the first half of the year, totaling 29.226 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year growth of 22.89%. This marks the best performance for the first half of the year since 2020 and ranks third in the history of China's film industry for the same period [5] Group 3: Real Estate and Employee Welfare - Xiaomi Group launched a new employee apartment initiative in Beijing and Nanjing, offering 2,600 units at a monthly rent of 1,999 yuan, prioritizing recent graduates. This initiative aims to enhance employee satisfaction [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry - Tesla announced a price increase for the Model 3 Long Range and Model Y Long Range versions, with the Model 3 Long Range starting at 285,500 yuan, up from 275,500 yuan. The vehicle's range has been upgraded to 753 kilometers [16][17] - Li Auto reported delivering 36,279 vehicles in June 2025, with a total of 111,074 vehicles delivered in the second quarter. The company has achieved a cumulative delivery of 1,337,810 vehicles since its inception [19] - Several car manufacturers have initiated strategies to attract customers who pre-ordered the Xiaomi YU7, offering compensation for cancellation fees to encourage them to switch to their brands [18] Group 5: Solar Industry - Leading photovoltaic glass companies are planning to implement a new round of production cuts, with the expected reduction reaching 30% in July. This decision comes in response to a significant drop in prices, which have fallen over 70% [13][14]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-01 中国液体化工低库存，美国石油 低库存，能化延续震荡 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，美国又在积极促成俄乌之间的谈 判。从原油基本面情况看，当前全球整体库存逐步攀升，欧美经济体尤其 是美国石油库存却压力较小。美国原油商业库存、库欣库存和柴油库存均 位于五年同期最低，作为全球最大的原油消费国，美国的低库存将对油价 形成支撑，国内化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 化工品中整体仍是震荡态势。我们关注到液体化工的库存近期有分 化。纯苯和苯乙烯的华东港口库存周度攀升，且已经升至五年同期最高； 另一方面乙二醇的港口库存持续下滑，将至五年同期最低。高库存说明供 给压力在与日俱增，极低的乙二醇库存则说明一旦有装置扰动，期价就可 能有较强的向上动力。聚酯链中的PX和TA也延续强基差格局，低库存和高 基差品种表现将强于其他品种。 原油：延续震荡整理，美国月报显示该国产量创纪录 LPG：基本面宽松，但市场仍对地缘风险担忧，PG盘面或震荡 沥青：欧佩克+增产或超预期，沥青高估值等待回落 高硫燃油：欧佩克+增产或超预期，高硫燃油重回弱势 低硫燃 ...