Market Overview - International gold prices opened high and fluctuated, closing at $3,231.59 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,249.78 and a low of $3,206.24 [1] Economic News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's will be treated as ordinary economic data in monetary policy decisions, emphasizing the focus on achieving maximum employment and price stability [2] - Federal Reserve's Bostic anticipates one rate cut this year, with potential for earlier action if trade negotiations progress positively [2] - The U.S. Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the upcoming G7 finance ministers' meeting [3] - India is reportedly discussing a three-part trade agreement with the U.S., with a temporary agreement expected before July [4] Geopolitical Situation - U.S. President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine will "immediately" begin talks to end the conflict following a phone call with President Putin, highlighting the importance of negotiations led by both parties [6] - Both Trump and Putin expressed support for normalizing U.S.-Russia relations and agreed to continue dialogue on various issues, including a potential prisoner exchange [7] - Putin acknowledged the productive nature of the conversation with Trump and expressed readiness for direct dialogue with Ukraine regarding peace negotiations [8] Gold Market Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 2.3 tons, bringing the total to 921.03 tons [9] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [9] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, with short-term support around the 3200 level and resistance near 3250 [12] - Day trading strategies suggest cautious trading with a focus on oscillation, recommending entry points around 3200 for long positions and 3250 for short positions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is not particularly concerned about Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, as the assessments from rating agencies are considered "lagging indicators" [1] Group 1 - The downgrade by Moody's reflects a broader trend in credit ratings but is not seen as an immediate threat to the U.S. economy [1] - The Treasury Department believes that the rating agencies' evaluations do not accurately capture the current economic conditions [1] - There is an emphasis on the long-term economic fundamentals of the U.S. rather than short-term rating changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's only reflects a small part of the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating that the real risks are much more severe than what the downgrade suggests [1][2]. Group 1: Risks of U.S. Debt - Dalio believes that credit rating agencies underestimate credit risk as they only assess the risk of the government defaulting on its debt, failing to account for the larger risk that the government may print money to repay its debts, leading to significant losses for bondholders due to currency devaluation [2][3]. - For those concerned about the value of their money, the risks associated with U.S. government debt are much greater than what rating agencies communicate, implying that even if the government does not technically default, investors face substantial risks from inflation eroding purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - On the day of Dalio's comments, U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies experienced a downturn, but the decline did not persist following Moody's downgrade announcement. Initially, major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 317 points, over 0.7%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declining [4]. - U.S. Treasury prices also narrowed their losses during the day, with the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury briefly exceeding 4.56% before falling below 4.50% [6]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, stated that the recent credit rating action is merely a headline risk and does not signify a fundamental shift in the market, suggesting that it will not have a significant direct impact on financial markets [6].

金十数据5月19日讯，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特批评穆迪降低美国信用评级的决定，称此举是一 种过时的看法，并表示特朗普政府致力于降低联邦支出。哈塞特表示："毫无疑问，美国国债是地球上 最安全的投资。没有哪个国家的（债券）比美债让我更愿意持有，所以穆迪想怎么做就怎么做。"哈塞 特补充称："这是一种回顾过去的做法，是在惩罚我们拜登政府不计后果的支出。"哈塞特还表示："我 们正在削减开支，我们正在放松管制。我们有供给方面的增长，因此我们有充分的理由相信，我们将拥 有世界上最好的经济。如果你拥有世界上最好的经济，你也将拥有世界上最好的债务。这就是我对它的 评价。" 哈塞特驳斥穆迪下调美国评级，称美债是"最安全的投资" ...

穆迪下调美国信用评级，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.64%，纳指跌1.42%，标普500指数跌 1.02%。大型科技股普跌，特斯拉跌近4%，英伟达、台积电跌超2%，Meta、AMD、亚马逊跌近2%。诺 瓦瓦克斯医药涨超20%，美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）有条件批准该公司的新冠疫苗。 ...

美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：穆迪下调美国评级不应令市场感到意外。 ...

你没听错，美国政府的信用评级被穆迪降级了，从最顶级的Aaa降到了Aa1。这就好比是你一直以为自己是 全班学习委员，结果突然被老师通知：对不起，你现在只是普通班干部。 而且穆迪还特意强调一句："放心，我们现在对你的评级是稳定的，意思是你虽然已经掉下去了，但短期 内还不会再掉。"听起来就像医生跟你说："你虽然胖了20斤，但短期内不会再胖了。"这能叫安慰吗？ 一听这消息，美股立马开始抖了，纳指和标普500 ETF盘后跌了0.4%。债券市场也开始跟着神经质，美国 10年期国债收益率飙到4.48%，两年期也跟着兴奋了一把——这要是债券也会说话，它肯定在喊："终于轮 到我上热搜了！" 更热闹的是，这已经不是第一次美国被降级了。前有惠誉（Fitch），再有标普（S&P），现在连**穆迪 （Moody's）**也下手了——这仨评级机构就像是三位前女友，轮番在社交平台上发文："我早就说过他不 靠谱！"结果现在，美国三大信用评分全军覆没，正式退出"三A俱乐部"。 你问为啥降级？原因其实也不复杂——**美国政府太会花钱，不会存钱。**穆迪直说了：你这十多年来债 务和利息狂飙，已经甩同龄人几条街了！就像一个朋友每年都说"我要存钱买房 ...

毛宁对此表示，美国应当采取负责任的政策措施，维护国际经济金融体系的稳定，也保障投资者的利 益。 据环球时报，外交部发言人毛宁主持5月19日例行记者会。会上有记者提问称：穆迪下调了美国的信 用评级，从最高级别Aaa下调至Aa1，并对美国政府债务水平发出警告。中方如何看待此次评级下 调？ ...

Core Insights - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve due to the expanding budget deficit [1] Group 1 - The downgrade by Moody's reflects concerns over the increasing budget deficit in the U.S. [1] - Following the downgrade, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become steeper, indicating rising yields on longer-term debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking a significant shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating was unexpected, occurring before the resolution of ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding major fiscal legislation [3]. - The downgrade reflects concerns over the increasing U.S. government debt and rising interest expenses, with projections indicating a potential increase in government debt by $5 trillion over the next decade due to proposed tax cuts [3][4]. - Following the downgrade announcement, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 4.49%, an increase of approximately 0.05% from before the announcement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the downgrade, major financial institutions, including Barclays, believe that there will not be a forced sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, as they continue to be viewed as "risk-free" assets [4]. - Japanese financial institutions have expressed that the impact of the downgrade is limited, with no plans to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - There is a noted trend of foreign investors, including China, reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with China's holdings dropping to $765.3 billion, a decrease of $18.9 billion from the previous month [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The downgrade comes at a time when U.S. interest rates are already under upward pressure, influenced by various economic factors including the potential for a stronger fiscal policy under the Trump administration [5]. - The sentiment among investors remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt effectively, which could hinder the return of capital to the U.S. [6].