Summary of Bread Financial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bread Financial - **CFO**: Perry Beberman, with over 30 years of experience in financial services, including 17 years at Bank of America [1][2] Industry Insights - **Consumer Health**: The consumer has shown resilience despite economic challenges, with inflation rising approximately 30% post-pandemic. Real wage growth has outpaced inflation in 8 out of the last 9 quarters, with recent figures showing 3.5% wage growth against 3% inflation [7][12] - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are becoming more "choiceful," opting for lower-priced alternatives rather than premium products. This trend is evident in retail, where consumers are adjusting their purchasing decisions based on price sensitivity [8][21] - **Credit Sales**: Credit sales have remained strong through October and early November, although there is caution regarding early November trends due to potential holiday purchasing patterns [8][11] Key Financial Metrics - **Delinquency and Loss Rates**: The company expects a gradual improvement in delinquency trends, with a target loss rate of 6% through the cycle. The current reserve rate stands at approximately 11.7% [20][28] - **Loan Growth**: Loan growth has been slightly negative, but the company anticipates a return to low to mid-single-digit growth rates by 2026, contingent on macroeconomic conditions and consumer health [38][104] Strategic Initiatives - **Partnerships**: The company is focused on expanding its partnerships, particularly in the home vertical, with new signings expected to drive loan growth. The pipeline for new business remains robust, with a preference for smaller, manageable portfolios [47][49] - **Co-brand vs. Private Label**: There is a strategic shift towards co-brand offerings, which are expected to increase as a percentage of total loans. This shift is aimed at capturing a higher-end customer base and improving overall returns [54][58] Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: The market remains competitive, with the company emphasizing its unique partnership model and disciplined approach to capital management. The company is not pursuing aggressive acquisitions but is open to opportunities that align with its strategic goals [77][117] - **Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)**: Bread Financial has been cautious in the BNPL space, focusing on sustainable lending practices rather than competing with irrational market players. The company aims to offer a full suite of products to its brand partners [78][79] Technology and Innovation - **Tech Stack**: The company has made significant investments in its technology platform, which has helped secure partnerships with sophisticated clients like Crypto.com. Continuous improvements in technology are expected to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [87][90] Consumer Cohorts - **Monitoring Trends**: The company is closely monitoring various consumer segments, including recent graduates and low-FICO individuals, to identify potential risks or opportunities. Currently, there are no significant signs of distress within the consumer base [96][97] Conclusion - Bread Financial is positioned for gradual growth, with a focus on maintaining strong consumer relationships, expanding partnerships, and leveraging technology to enhance its offerings. The company remains cautious yet optimistic about future performance, particularly as it navigates the evolving economic landscape [118][119]

The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 2-week low today and is down by -0.29%.  The dollar is falling today on speculation that the reopening of the US government will allow the release of delayed economic reports that may show a weakening US economy, prompting the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. Losses in the dollar are limited after hawkish comments from the Fed, following Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said they favor keeping interest rates steady.   Al ...

Dave Ramsey is a personal finance expert known for his aggressive approach to debt paydown. While many of his money tips stay the same each year, he has added a few new items that apply to 2025 and onward. Trending Now: Dave Ramsey Says This Is the Best Way To Pay Off Debt Explore More: 6 Things You Must Do When Your Savings Reach $50,000 In this article, we’ll cover the five best money tips of 2025, according to Dave Ramsey. Budget for Inflation Inflation wasn’t an economic factor most people considere ...

By Sarupya Ganguly BENGALURU (Reuters) -U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, assuming no upside inflation surprises, are likely to rise modestly in coming months, according to a Reuters poll of market experts, while short-dated yields are ​forecast to decline on rate cut bets. The survey results suggest inertia in the world's largest debt market despite a long list of ‌potential risks, not least of which is a mountain of upcoming supply. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recently passed budget will require an esti ...

The rise in consumer prices is on track to exceed the central bank's target until 2028. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is trying to get that inflation rate down. ...

Analyzing tariff effects on inflation.gettyInflation may be down to the Federal Reserve’s target, if we subtract the effect of tariffs. Perhaps, then, the Fed can bring down interest rates more. That’s an implication of research at Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab. Their “data contain daily prices scraped from the online stores of large multichannel U.S. retailers.” They calculate duties on the products and find that so far, pass-through to consumers averages 20% of the tariff. (That will likely rise t ...

Economic Pressure on Lower-Income Americans - Lower-income Americans are under significant pressure, and a halt in their spending could negatively impact the overall economy [1][2] - The economy is becoming increasingly bifurcated, with higher-income consumers continuing to spend while lower-income households are forced to pull back [2] Job Market and Layoffs - Private-sector data indicates weakness in the job market, with layoffs reaching the highest level for October in over 20 years, totaling over 150,000 jobs, a 183% increase from September [2][4] - ADP's report shows that businesses added 42,000 private-sector jobs last month, contrasting with a loss of 29,000 in September [2] Debt and Financial Stability - Lower-income consumers are nearing recession, facing high inflation at 3%, rising layoffs, and maxed-out credit cards [2] - Concerns are raised about delinquencies on subprime auto loans leading to losses for banks, indicating potential larger credit issues [4] Economic Outlook - El-Erian suggests that while there may be isolated economic accidents, systemic shocks are not anticipated, as the financial system is not fundamentally compromised [5] - The analogy of "cockroaches" in the credit system suggests that while there are issues, they may not indicate a broader systemic failure [5]

Let's talk about just how important it is for an economist like yourself to finally get access to the data. And by the way, which pieces of data are the most important to you. >> That's very important, Dom, because if you think about it, exactly as Emily just said, we did not have anyone collecting data in October.So, we will most likely not get inflation for October. We'll most likely not get employment for October. And if we begin to think about the non-farm payrolls data, meaning what's happening for Nov ...

Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance Invest. The global economy is rapidly evolving from shifting monetary policy to inflation pressures and structural changes thanks to technology. In the backdrop, record setting markets that are sparking fears of a correction or even worse.Joining me now is Muhammad Alan, Alian's chief economic adviser. Muhammad, a real treat to have you here at Invest. Thank you for always making time for us.Let's start out of the block here on cockroaches. Uh there's a lot of talk on Wall Street ri ...