Macro Strategy - The core impact of the recent reciprocal tariffs is on the existing global tariff and trade system rather than solely on China's exports, with the overall tariff rate on Chinese imports reaching 64.66% [18][19] - The new tariffs may lead to a GDP growth drag of approximately 1.5% for China, with a potential 31.5% decline in exports to the US [19] Fixed Income Analysis - The analysis indicates that the adjusted yield of bank assets can signal interest rate turning points, specifically when the adjusted yield of 3M interbank certificates rises to the level of corporate loan yields, indicating a potential downward turning point for interest rates [20][21] - The report highlights the importance of comparing yields between different asset classes to predict market movements [20] Industry Insights - In the engineering machinery sector, the direct export cost burden due to tariffs has increased to 79%, but the overall exposure to the US market is manageable for major players like SANY and XCMG, with their US exposure being relatively low [24] - Companies with manufacturing facilities in North America or Mexico are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks, with SANY and Hengli Hydraulic being notable examples [24]

Group 1 - The article highlights the risks associated with illegal fundraising activities disguised as "financial innovation" and "blockchain," where criminals exploit the public by issuing so-called "virtual currencies" and "digital assets" [1][3]. - Blockchain is defined as a decentralized distributed database technology that ensures information is securely stored and cannot be tampered with through cryptographic techniques [2]. Group 2 - Virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and "air coins," are characterized by being non-government issued, utilizing encryption and distributed ledger technologies, and existing in digital form [5]. - A notice issued by ten departments, including the People's Bank of China and the Supreme People's Court, on September 15, 2021, clarified that virtual currencies do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and that related activities are considered illegal financial activities [5].

今天a股还好，倒是虚拟币那边跌炸了，大饼3天时间从108000+跌到了93000，这还是跌最少的，二饼从4100跌到3100，蒸发了1/4。至于再底下的阿狗阿 猫就不说了，跌30%算少的，腰斩也不奇怪。 晚上我特地思考了一下原因，主要可能是因为我每天很少写单一主题，我文章通常是四面八方搜罗的信息杂烩，再附加一些我的看法，这种没有中心主题 的文章不会形成强烈印象，但这并不代表这些信息你们摄入无效。只要你们认真看了，这些信息会植入进去，等看到相关内容的时候就会产生联动。 我这两天账户也亏不少，没细算，200+肯定有了，本来我还私底下想过要不要过年红包再加点，但这几天跌完就老实了。话说蔡文胜前几天卖的好，卖 晚点就没那个价了，不亏是老江湖，嗅觉敏锐。 其实我前些天也开始止盈了，还记得我说的双维度止盈吗，一个是价格维度，一个是时间维度，各自推进出货的进度，只是我出货的窗口期设定的比较 长，卖的没那么快。现在价格崩了，价格维度暂停，但是时间维度会继续推进，按照计划该卖卖。 我兜里还有一些零碎的杂毛币，前几天全抛在最高价附近了，这些杂毛没有复杂的出货计划，心情来了鼠标点三下清一个，2分钟卖完，现在回想起来心 情还蛮舒畅。 ...