观点 / 刘润 主笔 / 景九 责编 / 黄静 本文首发于2024年12月 ，希望对你有所启发。 以下是这篇次条重发文章正文 你知道比特币吗？ 没错。就是那个神乎其神的"虚拟货币"。它没有实体，全靠虚拟。在各种"一夜暴富"的故事中，担任主角。但因为太过"新潮"，它也一度被认为 是一个谎言。 前段时间，它的价格又在一路走高。尤其是今年，自从特朗普胜选之后，它的价格大涨，涨幅直逼40%。直到12月5日，一枚比特币的价格，首次 突破了10万美元。 （图片来自互联网） 10万美元，不是一个小数目。换算成人民币，大概有70多万了。所以，这件事也引起了很多人的关注。我的朋友圈，也有不少朋友在讨论。 尤其是，看到一个虚拟货币交易平台项目的时候。 那是我第一次接触虚拟货币交易。我听得有趣，也感到十分好奇，于是一边听项目发起人介绍，一边打开他们的交易网站，看看到底是怎么个事 儿。 看着看着，我就发现，他们支持比特币的交易。于是，我决定试着买一枚。毕竟，不实际体验一下，怎么能提出有价值的问题呢？ 有人说，胡闹。是不是我明天自己发行一套"老李币"，也能一枚10万元？这就是一个骗局。也有人说，不管是真是假，现在都10万美元一枚了， ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3% and expanded its intraday decline to 2%, with SoftBank dropping 9% [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, and Ethereum dropping nearly 6% to around $3,200 [1] - The primary reason for the market sell-off is attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating it is too early to decide on interest rate cuts [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported maintaining stable interest rates to apply pressure on inflation [2] - The resignation of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting a collective response from other officials [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued shift of household deposits away from banks, which is a positive signal for the market [4] - South Korea's finance minister announced measures to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the Korean won [4] - Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, indicated a shift in fiscal policy focus towards increasing government spending rather than improving public finances, which may lead to economic stimulus measures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the Asia-Pacific markets is primarily attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials, which has raised concerns about future interest rate policies and market stability [2] Group 1: Market Reactions - On November 14, the Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3%, while the Seoul Composite Index fell by 2.6%, with the Nikkei's intraday decline expanding to 2% and SoftBank dropping by 9% [1] - Cryptocurrencies also experienced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, Ethereum dropping close to 6% to around $3,200, and Dogecoin decreasing by nearly 4% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Several Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating that it is too early to decide on potential interest rate cuts in December [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported a cautious approach to rate cuts, highlighting that current inflation remains above the Fed's target [2][3] Group 3: Regional Responses - The South Korean Finance Minister announced plans to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the won, indicating a need to address foreign exchange supply and demand imbalances [5] - In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed a shift in fiscal policy goals, suggesting a focus on increasing government spending rather than solely improving public finances, which may lead to potential tax cuts in the future [5] Group 4: Market Insights - China Galaxy Securities noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued trend of residents moving deposits, which could signal a positive market effect worth monitoring [4]

11月9日，中国国家计算机病毒应急处理中心发布了《LuBian矿池遭黑客攻击被窃取巨额比特币事件技术溯源分析报告》，揭示了美国如何操作这件事。报 告称，美国利用国家级黑客团队，历时四年，最终将本应归还诈骗受害者的比特币转移到美国国库。 要理清这件事，我们得从头说起。陈志，1987年出生，福建连江人。2002年，他在高中未完成学业时开始搭建《传奇》私服，凭此赚到了第一个100万。随 后，他转行做私服发布站，出售广告位，收取保护费，几年的时间就积累了千万财富。随着国内对私服的打击越来越严厉，陈志转而开始从事电信诈骗业 务，最初与台湾的犯罪团伙合作，做一些"猜猜我是谁"或"恭喜中奖"等骗局。 到了2015年左右，国内的打击力度加大，他便跑到了柬埔寨西哈努克港，在那里与洪森政府建立了关系，获得了柬埔寨国籍，并创办了"太子集团"。表面 上，太子集团的业务涉及地产、金融、酒店等领域，但实际上，它是一个披着跨国集团外衣的电信诈骗窝点。从2015年起，太子集团在柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸 等地建立了至少10个诈骗园区。 美国出动国家级黑客，花费了四年时间，最终把柬埔寨太子电诈集团的上百亿资金偷进了美国国库。这件事可能不少人听说过，柬 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of the IPO market, particularly for companies focused on infrastructure, artificial intelligence (AI), and cryptocurrency, outperforming traditional tech companies [1][3][4] - Companies like CoreWeave and Circle have seen significant stock price increases, with CoreWeave's stock rising 160% from its IPO price of $40 to a peak of $187, and Circle's stock increasing by 233% since its June listing [4][6] - The market is increasingly favoring companies that build infrastructure or services for AI and cryptocurrency, as these sectors begin to show direct sales and growth potential [7] Group 2 - CoreWeave operates as a data center provider, focusing on AI-specific infrastructure by leasing NVIDIA GPUs, distinguishing itself from larger cloud service providers like AWS and Google Cloud [4][6] - Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, has gained traction due to its transparent collateral structure, holding cash and short-term U.S. government bonds, and has been adopted by major payment platforms like Visa and PayPal [6] - The overall trend indicates that investors are prioritizing companies that demonstrate AI advantages and innovation, with expectations for this trend to continue until at least 2026 [7]

Core Insights - The profitability model of companies may face challenges due to the competition from open-source large models [1][2] - Recent market events reflect investor caution towards risk, particularly in the AI sector, leading to significant sell-offs in major tech stocks [1] - The unsustainable nature of AI investments is highlighted by OpenAI's substantial order contracts compared to its cash reserves [2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The financial market experienced a significant sell-off, with major tech companies losing nearly $1 trillion in market value [1] - Concerns over liquidity shortages and potential government shutdowns have contributed to market volatility [1] - The dollar index initially rose above 100 but quickly softened, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [1] Group 2: AI Investment Concerns - Major tech companies collectively invested $112 billion in AI during the third quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of such investments [1][2] - OpenAI's sales are approximately $13 billion, with available cash between $3 billion to $5 billion, yet it has signed contracts worth $1.3 trillion, indicating a risky financial strategy [2] - The reliance on capital markets for funding AI initiatives raises questions about the long-term viability of these investments [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite short-term market turbulence, there is an expectation that funds will eventually return to the market due to ongoing low-interest rates and a large amount of capital chasing limited assets [3] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the UK's GDP data and U.S. government budget negotiations, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which has been a significant factor in recent liquidity issues in the market [1][2][4] - The agreement will provide funding for the government until January 30, 2024, and includes provisions to prevent future shutdowns [2][3] - The market reacted positively to the news, with major stock indices and cryptocurrencies experiencing significant gains [1][4][6] Market Reaction - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, saw increases of approximately 0.3% and 0.41% respectively [5] - European stock index futures also rose, with the DAX futures up by 1.3% [1][4] - In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin surged past $106,000 and Ethereum exceeded $3,600 [1][6] Economic Context - The government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days, leading to a tightening of market liquidity [6][7] - The shutdown has delayed salary payments to federal employees, impacting consumer spending, which constitutes 80% of overall expenditure [7] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion due to ongoing financing without expenditure during the shutdown [7]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping below $100,000 before rebounding to a high of $104,070.6, and then settling at $102,363.4, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1] - Other cryptocurrencies mirrored this trend, with Ethereum down nearly 1%, HYPE coin down nearly 5%, and Dogecoin down nearly 2% [1] - Approximately 140,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll data, with the National Economic Council Director stating that the impact on the economy is greater than expected, potentially halving the fourth-quarter growth forecast [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, the highest for the month in over 20 years, contributing to a total of nearly 1.1 million layoffs for the year, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020 [1] - The surge in layoffs is attributed to the proliferation of artificial intelligence, a slowdown in consumer and business spending, and rising costs [1] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Federal Reserve - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October [2] - The St. Louis Fed President indicated that there remains a policy adjustment space of 50 to 75 basis points following the Fed's recent monetary easing measures aimed at supporting the labor market [2] Group 4: Government Shutdown Negotiations - Senate Republican Leader John Thune is working towards a bipartisan agreement to pass a comprehensive funding bill to restore government operations, with the draft nearing completion [3] - Thune expressed optimism about the progress of negotiations, noting active bipartisan discussions in the past 24 hours [3]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping below $100,000 before surging to a high of $104,070.6, and currently trading at $102,363.4, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also saw declines of -0.93% and -2.55% respectively, with market capitalizations of $388.8 billion and $7.5 billion [3] - A total of approximately 140,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, indicating high market stress [5] Liquidation Data - In the last 24 hours, total liquidations reached $250 million, with long positions accounting for $170 million and short positions for $80.75 million [6] - The highest liquidation amounts were recorded over 12 hours, totaling $120 million for long positions and $36.37 million for short positions [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll data, with expectations of a significant impact on economic growth, potentially halving the forecast for Q4 [7] - In October, U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, marking the highest level for this period in over 20 years, with a total of nearly 1.1 million layoffs announced this year [7] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in October [8] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate is engaged in negotiations to end the government shutdown, with bipartisan discussions ongoing and a comprehensive funding bill nearing completion [9]

做空点107500，防守108000，止损500点，目标105500 短线思路参考： 做多点104000，防守103500，止损500点，目标106000 币圈丽盈：11.4比特币最新行情分析 文章发布时间2025.11.4------00点40分 比特币现价106500，丽盈判断大饼价格接近关键支撑位105300，该价位为近期低点，具有较强支撑作用，同时与看涨吞没形态形成潜在反弹共振。均线系统 呈空头排列，短期均线斜率向下，表明趋势偏空，日线从高位回落，形成连续阴线呈现下跌趋势最低点105306接近前低支撑区域。2小时K线震荡偏弱，最 新价收于105616，未能突破上方压力区间107000附近。MACD2小时空头力量占优；日线整体趋势仍偏空。EMA2小时均线呈现空头排列下行趋势明确；日 线EMA均线系统同样空头排列，思路上空势延续，丽盈建议回踩以后可以继续开空 以太坊最新行情分析 发稿前以太坊现价3610，丽盈观察目前盘口以太低位筑底阶段接近强支撑位3562，同时锤子线形态与RSI超卖状态形成看涨共振，暗示短期反弹的可能性较 高。整体趋势偏空，反弹力度可能受限。日线从3906跌至3587形成明显的下跌趋势， ...