Core Viewpoint - The short-term oil price is expected to experience a volatile upward trend due to the summer demand peak and interest rate cut expectations, but caution is advised regarding OPEC's production increase and fluctuating trade policies [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current oil price rebound is supported by a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with OPEC planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, alongside potential overproduction risks from countries like Kazakhstan [2] - Seasonal demand is expected to rise due to increased travel during the summer, but overall demand may be constrained by weak global economic recovery, creating a tug-of-war between strong seasonal demand and weak macroeconomic conditions [2][3] - Supply disruptions from events like Canadian wildfires and geopolitical conflicts (e.g., reduced Russian exports) are providing short-term support against the pressures of increased production [2][3] Policy Influence - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is strengthening demand-side dynamics, as lower borrowing costs could stimulate energy consumption and provide a core upward driver for oil prices [2] - Recent U.S. employment data indicates a stable job market, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut, which could further enhance oil demand [2] - Trade policy uncertainties, including delays in U.S.-EU negotiations and unilateral U.S. actions (e.g., sanctions on Venezuela), are creating volatility in market confidence and could negatively impact long-term oil demand resilience [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions are amplifying supply disruption risks, with events such as the Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations contributing to increased oil price volatility [3] - The potential for OPEC's production increases to exceed expectations and the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies are highlighted as key risks for the oil market [3] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for oil prices is characterized by a volatile upward trend driven by seasonal demand peaks, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical premiums, while mid to long-term pressures may arise from non-OPEC supply increases and potential oversupply by 2025 [3]

美国可能加强对委内瑞拉制裁限制其原油出口，以及以色列可能袭击伊朗基础设施，这些因素都增加了 油价上行风险。但石油需求疲软，加上欧佩克联盟和非欧佩克产油国增产，将在未来几个季度加剧价格 下行压力。沙特阿拉伯将7月销往亚洲的原油价格下调至近两个月低点。在欧佩克联盟同意7月日增产 41.1万桶后，此次降价幅度小于预期。沙特一直主张更大幅度增产，这是其夺回市场份额并约束欧佩克 联盟成员国过度生产战略的一部分。汇丰银行表示："根据我们估算，随着夏季石油需求回升并在7-8月 达到峰值，与欧佩克联盟增产相匹配，二三季度市场将趋于平衡。此后欧佩克联盟加速增产将导致2025 年第四季度出现比此前预期更大的供应过剩。" 美东时间周五（6月6日），美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加13.9万人，尽管较 上月数据有所放缓，但仍高于市场预期。失业率则维持在4.2%不变。美联储哈克表示，不确定性使得 预测货币政策前景变得非常困难。在存在不确定性的情况下，美联储仍有可能在今年晚些时候降息。美 国5月非农就业报告是"稳健的"，关税的影响尚未完全显现。美联储的利率政策具有适度的限制性。现 在是美联储保持稳定并观察数据的时候了。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, particularly the aviation sector [2]. Core Insights - The aviation industry has faced significant operational pressure since the second half of 2024, with major airlines reporting substantial losses despite a slight reduction in losses compared to the previous year [4][14]. - Domestic flight occupancy rates have improved significantly, with the average economy class ticket price decreasing by 12.1% year-on-year in 2024 [4][19]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is promoting a rebalancing of supply and demand in the domestic market, with measures to control capacity and enhance price regulation [5][34]. - The international routes are experiencing slower recovery in demand, leading to structural oversupply that is expected to persist in the short term [6][44]. - Airlines show a low willingness to introduce new aircraft, with actual aircraft acquisitions falling short of planned numbers, indicating a continued low growth rate in supply [7][58]. - The report suggests that the current low PCF valuation of airline stocks indicates potential for upward price elasticity during the peak season [8][76]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The aviation sector has been under pressure, with major airlines reporting a combined loss of approximately 10.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024, although this is an improvement from the 14.3 billion yuan loss in Q4 2023 [4][14]. - In Q1 2025, the combined loss of major airlines increased to 4.4 billion yuan, up from 2.1 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [4][14]. Domestic Route Outlook - The Civil Aviation Administration is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in the aviation market, with measures to control capacity and improve price behavior [5][34]. - In Q1 2025, the overall capacity of major airlines on domestic routes decreased year-on-year, while occupancy rates continued to rise [5][37]. International Route Outlook - The recovery of international routes is more challenging, with some long-haul routes still not returning to normal demand levels, leading to low utilization rates of wide-body aircraft [6][44]. - The report notes that the supply of long-haul routes is nearing saturation, and further increases in capacity could negatively impact ticket prices [6][48]. Aircraft Introduction - The willingness of airlines to introduce new aircraft remains low, with actual acquisitions significantly below planned numbers, indicating a trend of low growth in supply [7][58]. - The report anticipates that the supply side will continue to grow at a low rate, aiding the transition from oversupply to balance in the market [7][67]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - Overall oil prices in 2024 were lower compared to 2023, which is favorable for the recovery of industry profitability [68]. - The exchange rate has remained stable since 2024, limiting its impact on the aviation industry [72]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the current PCF valuation of airline stocks is at a relatively low level, suggesting strong potential for upward elasticity during the peak season [8][76]. - With high occupancy rates during the off-peak season, any increase in demand during the peak season is likely to translate into higher ticket prices [8][86].