核心观点 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 28 日 如何看待债市春节后波动加大 ——债市策略思考 跨春节前后，债市交易主线或由宽货币预期交易向政策博弈逐步切换，获利了结与风 险回避两种情绪共振驱动债市调整。展望下一阶段，债市短线或维持震荡，多看少动 或构成多数投资者的主要选择。 ❑ 债市交易主线或逐步切换 回顾春节前债市突破行情，国内外权益市场承压调整构成外部利好，宽货币预期 交易构成内部动因，两者共振驱动 10 年国债收益率突破 1.80%阻力点位。从量能 角度来看，在 2 月 12 日及 13 日 10 年国债下探过程中，活跃券成交规模出现显著 收缩，与国债收益率强势突破 1.80%阻力位置的行情或并不完全匹配。从驱动角 度来看，节前权益市场调整或更偏向于短期交易性因素，债券相对于股票或仍为 弱势资产，相对偏弱的价格趋势并未发生实质性逆转。我们认为本轮突破或可定 义为在节前交易相对平淡时期由小部分资金买入催化产生，或并不能够完全反映 市场共识，行情支撑相对有限。 债市行情反转背后交易主线或也在逐步切换。本轮债市修复行情的核心驱动在于 投 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：减仓反弹 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周三持仓量减仓 45800 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 1150036 手。日均线来看短期向上突破 5 日均线，但中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依旧存在，最低 3024，最高 3084，收于 3076 元/吨， 上涨 52 元/吨，涨幅 1.72%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3210 元/吨，相 比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 134 元/吨。基差仍然较大。 1，供需情况： 供应端：节前螺纹钢周度产量由高位回落。2026 年 2 月 13 日当周， 螺纹钢产量为 169.16 万吨，较前一周减少 22.52 万吨，主要因电炉钢厂集 中检修。长流程钢厂仍维持较高开工率，但整体供应压力较 1 月峰值有所缓 解。 需求端：终端需求季节性萎缩显著。2 月上旬，237 家主流贸易商建 筑钢材日均成交量降至约 2.8 万吨，环比下降超 20%；表观消费量连续三周 回落，2 月 13 日当周降至约 147.6 万 ...

Market Overview - On February 2, 2026, London spot gold opened at $4685.99 per ounce, down over 4.2%, with a daily low of $4583.077 per ounce. London spot silver opened at $82.887 per ounce, down over 2.7% [1][2][3] - Domestic precious metal futures prices opened lower, with Shanghai silver futures hitting the limit down, Shanghai gold futures down over 10%, platinum futures limit down, and palladium futures down over 15% [3][4] Price Adjustments - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver contracts due to significant price volatility. If a one-sided market occurs, the margin level will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price limit will change from 19% to 25% [4] - Domestic brand gold jewelry prices have adjusted downwards, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry reported at ¥1484 per gram, down from ¥1618 per gram [5][6] Consumer Behavior and Refund Policies - Sales personnel at gold brand counters have stated that returns will not be accepted due to price drops, with a standard deduction of ¥500 for any return [7] - Online return policies vary, with most platforms not accepting returns for investment gold products. Some brands allow returns within 24-48 hours under specific conditions, while others charge a fee of 1%-5% for returns [9][11][12] Risk Management by Financial Institutions - Several banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB, have issued announcements adjusting their gold accumulation business and providing risk warnings due to significant price fluctuations in precious metals [17][19][22][26] - ICBC has raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation from ¥1000 to ¥1100 and adjusted business rules for gold accumulation starting February 7 [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The supply of overseas copper mines is facing increased disruptions, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias due to support from the strategic resource demand and value, as well as the tight supply of copper mines. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [3][4]. - Aluminum: Although the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is accumulating, and high prices are suppressing downstream demand, the relatively low LME aluminum inventory and high US aluminum spot premiums provide strong support. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The current industrial situation of lead is weak, but due to the impact of winter cooling on the transportation of waste batteries, the raw materials for secondary smelting are tightening, and it is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [9][10]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but due to the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices and the suspension of a zinc - mine development project in Bolivia, combined with the current low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios, zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [11][12]. - Tin: In the short term, the capital game in the futures market determines the trend of tin prices. Against the background of a strong trend in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, tin prices are expected to be mainly strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Nickel: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not continuously reflected in the explicit inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, but due to the increase in profit - taking orders and large fluctuations in the commodity market, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Although the demand is relatively average, due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to have strong support [28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: Overseas copper - mine supply disruptions increased, LME copper 3M rose to a maximum of 14,527 dollars/ton and closed up 4.46% at 13,705 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 106,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,150 tons to 176,075 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory decreased slightly. The spot discount in Shanghai was 170 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 235 yuan/ton. The spot import loss of SHFE copper narrowed to near the break - even point, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.92% at 3,233 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,935 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum - rod inventory increased by about 12,000 tons. The LME aluminum - ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 498,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 1.13% at 17,208 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 20.5 dollars to 2,046 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead - ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton. The domestic lead - ingot social inventory increased by 3,500 tons to 38,400 tons on January 29th [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial situation of lead is weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.42% at 25,979 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 48.5 dollars to 3,461.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc - ingot average price was 25,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc - ingot social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 107,400 tons on January 29th [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the tin price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 446,130 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the downstream inventory is generally low, with a concentrated release of rigid - demand restocking demand after the tin - price decline last week. The national main - market tin - ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons on January 23rd, an increase of 365 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the nickel price fluctuated, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot - market premium of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore and the price of nickel iron remained stable [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: SHFE nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium - carbonate spot index closed at 164,501 yuan, down 2.56%. The lithium - carbonate futures rose and then fell, and the LC2605 contract closed at 164,820 yuan, down 0.88%. The SMM weekly inventory was 107,482 tons, down 1,414 tons [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 29th, the alumina index rose 0.21% to 2,814 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 261 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 304 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 161,500 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.83%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends, and the raw - material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons on January 23rd, a 2.91% increase [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward, and the main AD2603 contract closed up 0.27% at 23,850 yuan/ton. The weighted - contract position increased, and the volume remained high. The domestic mainstream - market inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is expected to have strong support [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a six-month high of 1.3789, driven by a weaker dollar, resilient UK economic data, and delayed interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - The UK economy shows resilience, with the composite PMI rising to 53.9 in January 2026, indicating accelerated business growth and warming demand, which suggests strong GDP growth in the first quarter [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US enhances the pound's advantage, with UK inflation rebounding to 3.4% in December, reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The weak US dollar index, which fell to 96.27, has contributed to the pound's strength, as funds shift towards GBP assets due to reduced safe-haven appeal of the dollar [2] - Several institutions have raised their forecasts for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with expectations of breaking through the 1.38 level and targeting 1.40, with NatWest predicting rates of 1.41 and 1.42 by mid and end of 2026 [2] - There are uncertainties surrounding the pound's trajectory, particularly due to political risks in the UK and internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic expectations and a reduction in geopolitical risks, supported by domestic policy initiatives and external market conditions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the Shanghai nickel futures for the main contract closed at 142,500 CNY/ton, up 1,620 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 145,750 CNY/ton, an increase of 650 CNY from the previous day [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The issuance of 936 billion CNY in special long-term bonds aimed at industrial equipment upgrades and carbon reduction has stimulated demand expectations in the nickel market [2] - A rebound in U.S. stock markets and a decline in the U.S. dollar index have alleviated valuation pressures on non-ferrous metals priced in dollars, contributing to positive market sentiment [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo has stabilized, reducing previous concerns about supply chain disruptions for nickel and cobalt [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is currently characterized by a conflict between strong expectations and weak realities, with concerns over potential reductions in nickel ore export quotas from Indonesia driving prices [3] - Demand is showing a significant divide, with strong demand from the new energy battery sector contrasting with ongoing weakness in traditional stainless steel applications [3] - The current market conditions indicate that price increases are primarily driven by speculative sentiment rather than broad-based consumption, with a notable disparity in trading activity between high-purity nickel and ordinary nickel used in stainless steel [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the conflicting expectations of the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian nickel policies. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. It is recommended to consider options trading and focus on structural opportunities [4][5]. - Stainless steel prices are also expected to fluctuate widely. The cost center has shifted upward due to factors such as nickel - iron price increases, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. Attention should be paid to Indonesian nickel policy news, policy implementation, and secondary - market fund outflows before the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs News and Policy - related Events - Quota event: In January 2026, Indonesian officials' statements on nickel - ore quotas were inconsistent. The 2024 - 2025 quota exceeded actual smelting demand, and the 2026 quota is under review. If the 2.6 - billion - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to smelter production cuts and change the supply - demand outlook. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - Associated minerals event: Indonesia plans to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the nickel - ore pricing and taxation system. If implemented, it may increase the cost of smelting by about 5% - 10%, but the impact on nickel costs will be limited if the cost can be passed on [2]. - Illegal fine event: Multiple Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about IDR 80.2 trillion for illegal land occupation. The final amount may be lower, and if fines are imposed, they may be indirectly passed on to ore prices, increasing smelting costs [2]. - Other events: In early 2026, Vale temporarily suspended its nickel - mining operations but later resumed them after obtaining the 2026 mining quota. This may indicate Indonesia's preference for hydrometallurgical projects [3]. - Market news: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia plans to revise the nickel - ore benchmark price formula, and there are plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target [8][9]. Market Quotes and Analysis - Nickel: The spot fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgical project commissioning. The secondary market expects a cyclical shift in Indonesian policies. In the short - term, nickel prices will fluctuate due to the confrontation between different types of funds. Unilateral trading is difficult, and options and structural opportunities are recommended [4][5]. - Stainless steel: Uncertainties in Indonesian policies may weaken short - sellers' confidence. The cost of stainless steel has increased due to the rise in nickel - iron prices, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. The price will also fluctuate widely [6]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons [7]. - New energy: On January 16, the inventory days of SMM's nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor and ternary material inventories also increased slightly on January 15 [7]. - Nickel - iron to stainless steel: On January 15, the SMM nickel - iron industry - chain inventory decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in December increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the social inventory on January 15 decreased week - on - week [7]. Key Data Tracking - Futures: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided, including price changes compared to previous periods [11]. - Industrial chain: Data on various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains are presented, such as the prices of 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and battery - grade nickel sulfate, along with their price changes [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4] Core Insights - The sales volume and price in the real estate sector continue to decline, with investment and financing indicators accelerating downward [4][5] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1% for the first 11 months of 2025 [6] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, and the outlook for housing prices remains pessimistic [5][20] - Real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies are both experiencing accelerated declines [5][35] - New construction remains at a low level, while completion rates, as a lagging indicator, show a confirmed downward trend [5][55] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total sales revenue of new commercial housing was 75,130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline rate expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][6] - The sales area for new commercial housing was 78,702 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with a decline rate increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][6] - November 2025 saw a single-month sales revenue decline of 25.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level compared to the same period in history [6] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first 11 months of 2025 was 9,546 yuan per square meter, down 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [20] - In November 2025, the average selling price dropped to 9,097 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [20] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment totaled 78,591 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, with the decline rate expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [35] - Funds available to real estate companies were 85,145 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [35] Construction Activity - The new construction area for the first 11 months of 2025 was 53,457 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [55] - The completion area was 39,454 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that, despite the current downturn in the real estate fundamentals, there may be opportunities for policy-driven trading strategies. It recommends continuing to build positions at the bottom, specifically mentioning China Jinmao and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group as potential stocks to consider [5][69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 96.51 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 188.68 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funds prices showed mixed trends. During December 1 - 7, 2025, 43.0717 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds were issued, with total repayments of 51.0485 billion yuan and a net financing of - 7.9767 billion yuan. Long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, totaling 93.1004 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Credit bond yields to maturity increased. For example, among urban investment bonds, the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increased the most, by 7.79BP [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, US bond yields mostly increased, the US dollar index weakened, non - US currencies strengthened, crude oil prices rebounded during the week, and gold futures and spot prices showed divergence [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Decline, Mixed Fund Movements - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange funds prices showed mixed trends. For example, DR001 decreased by 0.30BP to 1.3003%, and DR007 decreased by 2.88BP to 1.4380% [16]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing, Decline in Local Bond Issuance - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was - 7.9767 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 22.3 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 9.9 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased, raising 10.8717 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, long - term treasury bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 34.94BP to 37.66BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Issuance Volume Compared with the Previous Period - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of issuance number, and financial bonds accounted for the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [44]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, urban investment bond yields to maturity increased, with the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increasing the most, by 7.79BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year yield of AA + rating increased the most, by 4.74BP [54]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 1 enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rise - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, and Asia - Pacific stock indexes generally rose [57]. 3.2 Most US Bond Yields Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, most US bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 12.00BP to 53.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakens, Non - US Currencies Strengthen - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and non - US currencies strengthened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar increased by 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar increased by 0.37% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Rebounds During the Week, Gold Futures and Spot Prices Diverge - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.62%, London spot gold prices increased by 1.24%, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.87%, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, ultra - long - term bonds are experiencing increased volatility. The reasons may include the transmission of market sentiment caused by the credit risks of bonds like those of Vanke, trading congestion, and changes in policy expectations. The bond market in the next week may focus on policy games and changes in the capital market. Investors are recommended to pay attention to the policy signals from the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the results of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. They should focus on the support level of around 1.85% for 10 - year treasury bonds. If policies exceed expectations, they can appropriately shorten the duration. Ultra - long - term bonds need to avoid short - term fluctuations and wait for central bank policy signals. For credit bonds, focus on the allocation value of Tier 2 capital bonds and long - duration credit bonds [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of policy gaming in the domestic stock market is intensifying, but the shrinking trading volume limits its sustainability. The bond market sentiment continues to be positive [1][2]. - For stock index futures, the "Spring Rally" offensive timing still needs to wait, and in the short - term, focus on the price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks. For stock index options, continue to hold short options for defensive enhancement. For bond futures, the bond market is likely to return to a volatile state in the short - term and is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Views**: The sentiment of domestic policy gaming is intensifying, but the shrinking trading volume limits its sustainability [1][6]. - **Logic**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded after hitting the bottom, barely holding above 3900 points, with the trading volume shrinking to 1.79 trillion yuan. There were two intraday movements: Vanke's limit - up in the afternoon and the active retail sector. The PCB and photovoltaic sectors that were strong in the first half of the week adjusted. The Fed's December interest - rate decision is unlikely to bring additional benefits to A - shares. In the shrinking - volume environment, it is difficult to form a continuous main line [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions in Dividend ETF + IC [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Views**: Use covered strategies for defensive enhancement [2][6]. - **Logic**: The equity index was weak first and then strong yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%. The trading volume of each option variety rebounded by 25.32%. The market's long - short game is more intense. Considering the possible volatile market, it is recommended to continue holding short options for defensive enhancement [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered options [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Futures - **Views**: The bond market sentiment continues to be positive [2][7]. - **Logic**: Bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The inter - bank market liquidity was more abundant, and the overnight repo rate decreased. The short - end pressure is not large, but the supply of long - term bonds may be weak. In the short - term, the market depends on subsequent policies, and in the long - term, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish [2][7][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Volatility. Hedging strategy: Short - term short hedging, medium - term long substitution. Basis strategy: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. Curve strategy: Pay attention to the curve steepening [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 10, 2025, China's November CPI year - on - year was 0.7% (previous value 0.2%), and PPI year - on - year was - 2.2% (previous value - 2.1%). On December 9, 2025, the number of job openings in the US in October was 7670000 (previous value 7227000, forecast 7117000) [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the first and second phases of the 2025 maturity continued special treasury bonds on December 12, 2025, with face values of 400 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement after the close on December 12, 2025, the trading margin ratio and the daily price limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract will be adjusted [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report lists the sections for monitoring stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures data, but no specific data content is provided.