Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The domestic thermal coal price is expected to remain strong. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and with high temperatures persisting in mid - to late August, coal prices are likely to maintain a bullish trend [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - As of August 14, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 1.183 million tons, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by factors such as rainfall in major producing areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply has been slow [5]. Demand - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,500 tons [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures will be significantly higher in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeastern part of Southwest China. Hydropower substitution may still be limited [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1][4] Group 2: Core View - The reference view for the intraday and medium - term of thermal coal is "oscillation". The overall thermal coal price is expected to run strongly due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, it is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and the coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents' daily lives will have certain support this summer [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic thermal coal market in China is maintaining a strong upward trend as of early August, with prices supported by both supply and demand factors, although potential resistance from downstream users may lead to a stabilization in prices [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 4, the mainstream pithead price for Q6000 thermal coal in the Yulin region is between 560-585 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.23% increase from the end of July [1]. - Despite some coal mines resuming operations after completing monthly tasks, supply remains tight due to disruptions from rainy weather, limiting production and sales in open-pit mines [1]. - Demand remains robust, driven by high temperatures leading to sustained high daily consumption at power plants, while non-electric terminal demand is stable [1]. Future Outlook - There is an expectation of improved supply as rainy weather decreases, but anticipated strict checks on overproduction and safety inspections in late August may limit the potential increase in supply [1]. - Although downstream users are resistant to high prices due to the continuous price rise, the overall market is expected to experience intensified supply-demand negotiations, leading to a stabilization with narrow adjustments in coal prices [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside space is limited. The domestic demand for thermal coal is strong during the peak summer period, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is gradually depleted, driving the coal price to strengthen slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the rebound of the coal price [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Power Coal Spot - **Supply**: After the National Safety Production Month ended, coal mines with production suspension and restrictions in the main producing areas resumed production one after another after the rectification was completed, leading to a slight increase in the supply of power coal [5]. - **Demand**: Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, the temperature in most parts of China will be higher than the same period of the previous year, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwestern region is expected to be more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the precipitation in most parts of Yunnan will be 20% - 50% more, and there is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [5].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound this week. The supply of medium and low calorific value coal at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. The destocking speed of thermal coal slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. The seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board. It is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **品种**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: This week, the price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound. Due to the inverted shipping profit of medium and low calorific value coal at ports before, the supply at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. As of June 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 28.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 460,000 tons. The destocking speed slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. Overall, the seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board, especially the low - calorific value coal. With the subsequent rise in temperature, it is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the previous supply - guarantee measures have led to sufficient inventory in the industry chain, suppressing the upward space of coal prices, the marginal tightening of supply and the marginal strengthening of demand make it difficult for coal prices to fall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - Recent safety production and environmental protection requirements during the national safety production month have had a certain impact on coal mine production. Since the end of May, coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have increased, leading to tighter safety supervision in the main production areas, but with a limited impact on overall output [4]. - In May 2025, the national import of coal and lignite was 36.0401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. Both coal production and imports have started to tighten marginally [4]. 3.2 Demand Side - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 thousand tons per day; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33 thousand tons per day [4]. - The "Climate Trend Forecast from June 23 to July 8" released by the National Climate Center shows that during this period, the temperature in most parts of China will be close to or higher than the same period of the year, indicating good support for the demand of thermal coal during the peak summer season [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port remains stable in the short - term as multiple factors are intertwined. Although the previous supply - guarantee work has led to sufficient inventory in the industry chain, suppressing the upside of coal prices, the marginal tightening of supply and strengthening of demand also create strong resistance to price drops [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is "sideways" [4]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - Recent national safety production month and environmental protection requirements have had a certain impact on coal mine production. Since the end of May, coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have increased, and safety supervision in major production areas has tightened marginally, but the impact on overall output is limited [4]. - In May 2025, China imported 36.0401 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. Both thermal coal production and imports are starting to tighten marginally [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 thousand tons per day; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33 thousand tons per day [4]. - The "Climate Trend Forecast from June 23 to July 8" newly released by the National Climate Center shows that during this period, the temperature in most parts of China will be close to or higher than the same period of the year, indicating good support for the demand of thermal coal for peak - summer power generation [4].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although safety inspections and environmental protection efforts in coal-producing areas have increased in June, their impact on overall domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak summer demand period. The demand shows that the precipitation in summer this year is predicted to be "more in the north and less in the south", and most areas have high temperatures, but the coal consumption of domestic power plants was still at a low level by the end of May. The inventory shows that as of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim decreased significantly week-on-week but was still higher year-on-year. Overall, the peak season for thermal coal is about to start, and the high port inventory is gradually being depleted, but the long-term loose supply pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a lackluster peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in a low-level oscillatory operation recently [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: In May, safety accidents occurred in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi. In June, safety inspections and environmental protection impacts increased. As of May 31, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 171,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,500 tons, and that in 17 inland provinces was 280,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,700 tons. As of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.9323 million tons, a week - on - week significant de - stocking of 157,400 tons and 412,600 tons higher year - on - year. The peak season for thermal coal is approaching, but the long - term loose pattern has not changed, and the coal price is expected to oscillate at a low level [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although safety supervision and environmental protection impacts in coal - producing areas have increased in June, the overall impact on domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak - summer period. The demand shows that the coal consumption of domestic power plants is still at a low level as of the end of May, and the precipitation this summer is predicted to be "more in the north and less in the south" with high temperatures in most areas. The inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim decreased significantly week - on - week as of June 5 but was still higher year - on - year. Overall, the thermal coal peak season is approaching, port inventories are gradually decreasing from high levels, but the long - term loose pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a weak peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Situation - Domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - In June, which is the national safety production month, safety supervision and environmental protection impacts in coal - producing areas have increased, but the overall impact on domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak - summer period [4]. 3.3 Demand Side - On June 4, the National Climate Center predicted that the precipitation this summer in China would be "more in the north and less in the south", with more precipitation in areas such as northeastern Sichuan and western Yunnan compared to the same period of previous years, and high temperatures in most areas. - As of the end of May, the coal consumption of domestic power plants was still at a low level within the year. The daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces' power plants was 171.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.5 million tons; the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces' power plants was 280.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.7 million tons [4]. 3.4 Inventory Side - As of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2932.3 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 157.4 million tons and 412.6 million tons higher year - on - year [4]. 3.5 Outlook - The thermal coal peak season is approaching, port inventories are gradually decreasing from high levels, but the long - term loose pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a weak peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future [4].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry, specifically the thermal coal market, is experiencing a downward trend since 2025, with prices nearing 2014 lows due to oversupply [1][3] - The market is characterized by a significant increase in coal production, particularly in Shanxi and Xinjiang, but recent environmental inspections and weak demand may lead to a decrease in production [1][5] Key Points Price Trends - As of May 2025, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal has dropped over 150 RMB since the beginning of the year, reflecting a significant decline in market prices [1][3] - The average price for thermal coal is expected to decrease to 650-660 RMB/ton for the year, with potential fluctuations in the second half of the year [4][14] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to April 2025, the cumulative oversupply of thermal coal reached 30.46 million tons, with inventory levels remaining historically high despite some reductions at northern ports [10][11] - Domestic thermal coal supply has increased by over 10 million tons year-on-year, while demand from the thermal power sector has been pressured by the rise of renewable energy sources [9][10] Production Insights - Shanxi aims for a production target of 1.013 billion tons, while Xinjiang's target is 600 million tons, but both face challenges related to market conditions and transportation limitations [6][15] - Environmental inspections have led to some production reductions, but no large-scale shutdowns have occurred [7][25] Import and Export Factors - Import volumes of thermal coal are expected to decrease by 30-50 million tons in 2025, primarily due to reduced imports from Indonesia and Australia [8][19] - The overall supply remains ample, with domestic production compensating for the decline in imports [9][10] Market Predictions - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential improvements in supply-demand balance due to seasonal factors and production adjustments [4][12] - The market may see a slight price increase in the third quarter, but high inventory levels and continued supply could lead to further price declines [13][14] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has engaged with index institutions to stabilize market pricing, which has contributed to a period of relative price stability [21][22] - Government policies are expected to prevent drastic price declines, with a focus on maintaining production levels despite market pressures [25] Additional Insights - The recent increase in low-calorie coal prices is attributed to high supply and low demand for high-calorie coal, leading to a shift in market dynamics [16][17] - The coal market is currently facing a challenging environment, with potential price drops below 600 RMB likely if demand does not improve and production levels remain high [24]