Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". As the peak season approaches, bullish factors for thermal coal are accumulating, and the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - **Driving factors for price stability**: Domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024 and a decrease in import volume. In June, China enters the critical period for peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have some inventory replenishment needs for the peak season, which provides some support to market sentiment [5]. - **Factors restricting price increase**: The overall pattern of medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and the current port inventory is at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The reference view for thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic thermal coal price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 22, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 613 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The supply and inventory pressure of thermal coal still exists, but the production and import volume in April decreased month-on-month, indicating that the supply-side pressure has not further increased. The rapid increase in port inventory in May has put great pressure on coal prices, and the high inventory situation has led to the continuous fermentation of the expectation of a lackluster peak season this summer, dragging down prices. As of May 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.105 million tons, significantly 6.458 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory once reached a historical high of 33 million tons within the month. There are three positive drivers in the current coal market: policy support in May, a decline in the cost-effectiveness of imported coal leading to a decrease in imports, and the upcoming peak season for thermal coal. However, the thermal coal market still maintains a pattern of loose supply, with port inventory at a high level in the same period in recent years and a strong expectation of a lackluster peak season. Under the psychology of "buying on the rise and not on the fall", the price of 5500K coal at ports is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 2: Time Cycle and Price Calculation Notes - The short - term is within one week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for varieties without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the current day's daytime closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered a rise. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating are only for intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term [3][4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点： 中期观点： 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格阶段性止跌企稳，截至 5 月 22 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 613 元 /吨，周环比下跌 9 元/吨。目前，动力煤供应和库存压力依然存在，不过 4 月产量和进口量环比 均有所回落，显示供应端压力暂未进一步增强。相对而言，5 月期间港口库存的快速回升，对煤 价形成较大压制，高库存现状使得今夏旺季不旺的预期持续发酵，拖累价格下行。根据 iFind 统 计，截至 5 月 22 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 321 ...

动力煤市场供应充足，但电力需求疲软，新能源装机加速，拉尼娜现象 转换导致夏季气温或不及预期，多重因素叠加使得短期内动力煤价格难 有乐观表现，即使企稳也仅是阶段性因素导致，反弹力度有限。 电厂库存偏高，或延续旺季不旺的走势。即使七八月份库存去化，9 月 份可能出现小幅涨价，但难以突破 700 元。整体对全年煤价行情保持谨 慎，预计在较弱状态中震荡。 长协执行条件松动，现货紧缺缓解，煤价定价更市场化。在整体基本面 偏宽松的情况下，非电行业工业需求对煤价的反弹支撑减弱，对工业端 需求带来的季节性涨价持保守态度。 若动力煤价格反弹，幅度可能仅几十元，难以超过 700 元。大反弹需进 口减量、宏观利好、水电下降和极端天气同时出现。贸易商对后市谨慎 悲观，电厂补库积极性不高。 火电表现弱于预期，可能导致达峰时间提前。预计今年是煤价最低的一 年，未来价格或回升。难以复刻 2021-2022 年的周期上行，但全球对 能源安全担忧或支撑煤价。 对话期货专家：如何展望动力煤价格底部及后市走势？ 20250521 摘要 Q&A 动力煤价格近期下跌的原因是什么？短期内动力煤价格底部预计会是多少，什 么时候可能出现？ 今年动力煤价格持 ...

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|动力煤周报 2025-04-27 日耗持续下行，动煤承压偏弱 产地方面，目前冶金化工需求有一定韧性，长协煤发运采购需求稳定，但近期终端有 电厂检修，部分煤矿库存积压，价格弱势下调。短期煤炭价格需求支撑不足，随着天 气逐渐转暖，价格明显缺乏支撑。后期关注非电煤需求的持续性和库存情况。 核心观点 ◼ 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至 4 月 25 日，榆林 5800 大卡指数 521.0 元/吨，周环 比下跌 12.0 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 5500 大卡指数 465.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 9.0 元/吨；大同 5500 大卡指数 532.0 元/吨；周环比下跌 6.0 元/吨。港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The coal price is expected to remain at a low level in the near future as the upward driving force is limited and the upstream and downstream are in a stalemate after continuous price drops [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation", with supply - side pressure remaining and the coal price weakly stable. The time - period definitions are: short - term within one week, medium - term from two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Likely factors**: Since April, the daily coal transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway has decreased from about 1.2 million tons per day in March to 1 million tons per day during the spring inspection, leading to a reduction in coal inventory at northern ports. During the "Golden March and Silver April", non - power demand has improved marginally in the short term. Due to the loose domestic coal supply - demand situation and continuous price decline, some enterprises have reduced foreign coal purchases, resulting in a recent decline in imported coal volume [4] - **Negative factors**: In April, northern heating has basically ended, and with rising temperatures, the pressure of the seasonal off - peak demand for thermal coal is emerging. The dry season of the Yangtze River is coming to an end, and the hydropower substitution effect will strengthen in May and June. The escalation of Sino - US tariff friction has put pressure on the export of some non - power terminal products of thermal coal. The National Climate Center predicts that from April 14 - 29, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and there will be more precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region during the flood season this year, so hydropower will gradually play a greater role [4]