Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 fell 1.24% to close at 2,545 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% in caustic soda capacity utilization to 82.6%. The demand side had the alumina开工率 drop 0.29% week - on - week to 75.47%, viscose staple fiber开工率 down 0.35% to 80.65%, and printing and dyeing开工率 up 2.55% to 63.23%. Last week, liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 7.08% week - on - week to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The 720,000 - ton Shanghai Chlor - Alkali plant shut down recently, expected to be under maintenance for about 30 days, relieving spot supply pressure. The alumina production cut scale expanded, running capacity remained low, and industry profits started to recover. The tariff reduction benefits non - aluminum terminal exports like clothing, but non - aluminum demand is currently average, with only rigid procurement and some downstream resistance to high prices. SH2509 has support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,630 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 41 yuan/ton to 2,545 yuan/ton; the futures position increased by 14,213 hands to 200,894 hands; the net position of the top 20 futures decreased by 10,050 hands to - 22,650 hands; the futures trading volume decreased by 447,265 hands to 614,716 hands. The closing price of the January contract decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 2,507 yuan/ton, and the May contract remained at 2,546 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton with no change. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 665 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. From May 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. As of May 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.09% and a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of the previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. The alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline, non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation. Some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2441 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume is 203,146 lots (a decrease of 13,391 lots), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 22,410 lots, the futures trading volume is 323,072 lots (a decrease of 166,542 lots), the closing price of the January contract is 2433 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2401 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 95 yuan/ton) [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton [3] 4. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 400 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 75 yuan/ton) [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton [3] 6. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the national chlor - alkali device had both maintenance and capacity increase, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. The domestic alumina start - up rate continued to decline, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 1.05% to 77.17%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.89% to 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons last week, still at a relatively high level in the same period. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline. The non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the liquid caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side saw a co - existence of maintenance and capacity increase in national chlor - alkali plants last week, with the capacity utilization rate dropping 1.6% to 82.3%. The demand side witnessed a decline in the domestic alumina start - up rate to 78.54%, a 5.39% drop in the viscose staple fiber start - up rate to 78.22%, and a 2.44% drop in the printing and dyeing start - up rate to 61.94%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 10.84% to 42.02 tons last week. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly due to the resumption of maintenance devices in North China. The caustic consumption of domestic alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously as their production cuts become more concentrated. Non - aluminum enterprises' pre - May Day stocking drives a temporary improvement in supply - demand, but its sustainability is doubtful. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand has not improved, and there may be a continuous callback in future prices. The main contract of caustic soda is about to switch to the 09 contract, with support levels at around 2330 for SH2505 and 2420 for SH2509 [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the futures holding volume was 212,082 lots, down 3,213 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 5,421 lots, down 1,793 lots; the futures trading volume was 520,056 lots, up 99,834 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 2478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2594 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 164 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2,840 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From April 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.3%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease. As of April 17th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 420,200 tons (wet tons), a 10.84% week - on - week decrease and a 12.22% year - on - year decrease [3].

| 烧碱产业日报 | 2025-04-16 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -11 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 2414 | 238087 | -1686 | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -4400 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | 329831 | -104242 | 期货市场 | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | -33 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2465 | 2414 | -11 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | -4400 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 10 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | 950 | 0 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/ ...