烧碱产业日报 2026-01-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2164 | -78 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 175556 | 29993 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -21007 | -1725 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 313841 | 25637 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 1963 | -57 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2303 | -66 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -21007 | -1725 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 690 | -13 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2156.25 | -40.63 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -8 | 37 | | 上游情况 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the week of 20250929 - 0930, the caustic soda futures price showed a narrow - range consolidation with a weekly increase of 0.12%, and the spot price remained stable. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - stocking situation of downstream alumina plants and the enterprise inventory data after the National Day [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range oscillation this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH601) rose 3 yuan/ton to 2531 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase, with a high of 2536 yuan/ton, a low of 2486 yuan/ton. The position was 83,862 lots, a decrease of 24,858 lots from last week, and the trading volume decreased by 1.112 million lots to 504,382 lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Most caustic soda prices declined this week, the near - month contracts performed slightly stronger, and the position of the main contract SH601 continued to decrease [2]. - **Associated Market**: The trading volume of call options for the caustic soda 01 contract was less than that of put options this week. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2240 - 2640 point range [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, and the liquid caustic soda price in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range adjustment, the spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly. On one hand, the futures price oscillated and sorted out; on the other hand, the spot price remained stable with minor adjustments in some regions [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was stable with a weak trend. Before the holiday, the supply - demand fluctuations were relatively limited, and the purchase price of the main downstream was adjusted to 740 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily line of the main caustic soda contract SH601 had a narrow - range adjustment, the trading volume decreased significantly compared with last week, and it was currently in a downward channel [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook This week, the caustic soda futures price oscillated and sorted out, and the price strengthened on the last trading day before the holiday. The position of the main contract decreased, and the overall position remained below 100,000 lots. In terms of demand, the receiving volume of the main downstream liquid caustic soda decreased, and the overall demand was average. Enterprises also loosened their prices to destock, and the prices in some regions were under downward pressure. The profit of the main downstream alumina shrank, and the non - aluminum demand was also lower than expected, presenting a weak reality pattern. Future attention should be paid to whether the inventory - stocking demand before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity can be realized and the impact of the overall enterprise inventory change after the National Day [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated strongly and closed at 2,571 yuan/ton. Last week, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 83.4%. In terms of demand, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.83% to 85.21%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.67% to 87.77%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.13% to 65.76%. The inventory of national liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 7.99% to 356,800 tons last week, resuming the destocking trend. There are planned maintenance devices in the northwest and northeast this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline month - on - month. There are many maintenance plans for chlor - alkali devices in September, and the industry supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Alumina enterprises' profits are shrinking but there is no cost - based production cut, and the amount of caustic soda delivered is still high. Non - aluminum downstream in Shandong shows resistance to high prices, and the market price of liquid caustic soda has declined. The inventory pressure is not large, and the supply of goods in South and Southwest China is currently tight. Benefiting from the upcoming introduction of a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key industries, industrial products rose mainly on the day. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support near 2,530 and the pressure near 2,630 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 110,751 lots, down 8,105 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 13,393 lots, up 2,772 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 279,647 lots, down 59,684 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 845 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,640.63 yuan/ton, down 78.13 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. As of September 11th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 356,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda is expected to tighten as more chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance devices increase this week, and there are maintenance plans for multiple domestic chlor - alkali devices in September. The alumina industry has considerable profits and strong willingness for stable and high - yield production, which supports the demand for caustic soda. Non - aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut - down devices have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Spot prices of liquid caustic soda are expected to rise due to improved supply - demand conditions, while the expected future production of caustic soda still suppresses the prices of far - month contracts. Near - month contracts are expected to be stronger than far - month contracts. Technically, SH2601 should focus on the support around 2600 and the pressure around 2760 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2665 yuan/ton, the contract closing price for January is 2665 yuan/ton, and for May is 2738 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 110334 hands, a decrease of 19229 hands; the trading volume is 646082 hands, a decrease of 26006 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 10927 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2718.75 yuan/ton, and the basis is 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 275 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 21st to 28th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.4%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week. As of August 28th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 379,600 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous week and an increase of 28.84% year - on - year. SH2601 fell 0.93% to close at 2665 yuan/ton. On the supply side, two sets of devices in Central China were shut down briefly last week, and one set in Central China and two sets in the Northwest restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.8% to 82.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 85.58%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 86.02%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.87% to 64.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.25% to 379,600 tons last week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda main contract switched to the 01 contract. SH2601 fell 1.85% to close at 2,598 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina industry's profit is considerable and there is no planned production cut. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching but the rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 64,074 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 21,262 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,610 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 22 lots; the main contract trading volume was 210,358 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 109,318 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,694 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 31 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 250.5 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was -250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 437,800 tons (wet tons), with a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina start-up rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber start-up rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance devices in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic caustic soda plant is still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected production capacity to be put into operation from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. [3] - The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for resuming production, and there is still some room for an increase in the alumina operating rate. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, and demand is weak. [3] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. For futures, the daily K - line of SH2509 should pay attention to the support around 2470 and the resistance around 2700. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2613 yuan/ton, the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May are 2656 yuan/ton and 2717 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 752433 lots, a decrease of 277186 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 15810 lots, a decrease of 12901 lots compared with the previous period. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous period. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of caustic soda is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu are 100 yuan/ton and - 125 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton in Jiangsu compared with the previous period. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The spot price of alumina is 3230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need for macro - policies to continue to exert force and expand high - level opening - up. [3] - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28 - 29, and both sides will continue to promote the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs. [3] - From July 18 - 24, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. [3] - As of July 24, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises' factories was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The operating rate of alumina increased by 1.84% to 85.45% last week, with an average profit of 409.4 yuan/ton. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.42% to 84.97% last week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9%. [3] - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.38% to 408,400 tons last week. [3]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - This week, caustic soda futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, while spot prices rose slightly in some areas. The supply shortage situation has been alleviated to some extent due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled plants. There is no significant boost from the demand side, and the off - season of non - aluminum demand continues. Traders and downstream users are resistant to high - priced caustic soda. It is expected that caustic soda prices may fluctuate weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the changes in the liquid chlorine subsidy price in North China and the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in the future [10]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week. The closing price of the main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The trading volume was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] million lots from last week, and the open interest was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] lots from last week [2][4][8]. b) Spot Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 17, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The capacity utilization rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased due to the low price of liquid chlorine [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 38.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.56% [4]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Some viscose staple fiber plants in Shandong restarted this week, increasing the capacity utilization rate. The comprehensive operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [6]. c) Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price of liquid caustic soda strengthened slightly in some areas, with price increases in North China and East China, and remained stable in other markets [8]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week, and both trading volume and open interest decreased [8]. d) Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of raw salt and electricity remained stable, and the production cost remained basically unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Products**: The recent start - up of alumina has increased, mainly to replenish previous long - term contracts. The overall spot market is tight, and some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. There is no significant change in non - aluminum downstream demand. The subsidy for the by - product liquid chlorine decreased this week, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of weakening supply - demand has started to materialize, with the spot price of caustic soda falling. The main futures contract SH2509 is oscillating at a low level near the lower - cost range. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the range estimated to be around 2220 - 2350 [7]. - In the medium - to - long term, there are many caustic soda production facilities scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high supply pressure. The delivered volume of the main contract remains high, while the off - peak demand from non - aluminum sectors is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Although the cost of self - supplied power plants has some support, the caustic soda spot price still has room to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2256 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week's close. The converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2531 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The overall caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2%, with some plants in central, northern, and northeastern China reducing their loads, and some in northwestern and eastern China restarting or increasing production [7]. - **Demand**: Alumina is still in the resumption phase. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, while the dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.64% to 60.73% [7]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 36.56 tons, at a moderately high level compared to the same period [7]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 501 yuan/ton, still showing considerable profitability [7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, a 750,000 - ton plant of Dongying Huatai will undergo maintenance, and some plants are planned to restart, which may lead to a decline in capacity utilization. There is high supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The futures contract is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main caustic soda contract oscillated at a low level this week, and the position of the 09 contract remained basically stable [8]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 810 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2531 yuan; in Henan, the market price is 928 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2900 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, the market price is 912 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 25 yuan/ton [14][24][29][34]. - **Basis**: The spot price decline has narrowed the basis [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - **Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Steam Coal**: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao remained stable at 609 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply**: In May, the caustic soda production was 3.4642 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. This week, the operating rate rose to 81.2% [49]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In May, the alumina production was 7.6323 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 80.87% [55]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.8%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber declined [59][62]. - **Import and Export**: - **Import**: In April, the caustic soda import was 900 tons; from January to April, the cumulative import was 2800 tons [68]. - **Export**: In April, the caustic soda export was 391,000 tons; from January to April, the cumulative export was 1.349 million tons [74]. - **Inventory**: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 365,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.63% [79]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased but remained quite profitable [82]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 20.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.15% [85].