Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for fuel oil is weak and volatile, and the arbitrage and option strategies are to wait and see [6][7] Group 2: Core View of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur near - end inventory remains at a high level, suppressing market prices. Supply is affected by factors such as Russian refinery facilities' recovery and changes in export from different regions. Demand from power generation has subsided, and feedstock demand support is not obvious [5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates at a low level. Supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis** - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur near - end inventory is high, suppressing prices. Russian refineries are gradually recovering, Middle - East high - sulfur export increases after power - generation demand fades, Mexican high - sulfur export decreases, power - generation demand disappears, and feedstock demand support is weak [5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates at a low level. Supply increases, and downstream demand lacks a driver. Logistics of low - sulfur heavy - raw materials may change, and attention should be paid to low - sulfur quota adjustment and issuance [5] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak and volatile [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to near - end high - low warehouse receipts and low - sulfur quota issuance [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Supply - side Factors** - Russia: Energy facilities are continuously attacked, but some refineries are recovering. Near - end high - sulfur export has increased [10][11] - Mexico: High - sulfur export is expected to decline as new secondary devices in refineries are put into operation [15][16] - Iran: Sanctions from the US continue, but high - sulfur export in the Middle - East has increased after power - generation demand fades [20][22] - Nigeria: The RFCC device in Dangote refinery operates unstably, and low - sulfur export tenders are continuously issued [34][35] - Middle - East Al - Zour refinery: Stable operation leads to expected stable high - level low - sulfur export, with increased supply to the pan - Singapore area [39][41] - South Sudan: Low - sulfur heavy - raw materials are stable, and export to the pan - Singapore area is expected to further increase [42][43] - China: The output of bonded low - sulfur fuel oil is stable, and attention should be paid to the issuance of the third - batch export quota and quota conversion [47][49] - **Demand - side Factors** - High - sulfur fuel oil: Power - generation demand has disappeared, but the volume of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering reached the highest level since IMO2020 in July, and feedstock demand has slight support [23][25][26] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: There is no specific driver for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable [44][46] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads between different types of fuel oil and Brent crude oil are presented in various charts [52][54][57] - High - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, and low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads are also shown [59][66] - Natural gas - fuel oil price ratio and cross - region freight rates are provided [76][79] - Singapore bunkering spreads are analyzed [82][83] - **Inventory Structure** - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US are presented [86][87][89][90][91] - Inventory structures in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are also shown [93][96] - **Terminal Sales Structure** - In July, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume increased. High - sulfur marine fuel bunkering volume and its proportion increased, while low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly and its proportion decreased [100]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected due to factors like Russian refinery bombings, reduced Mexican exports, and low Middle - East exports. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is falling, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - On September 11, 2025, FU主力 was 2802, up 16 from the previous day; its position was 202,000 lots, up 6,000 lots; FU仓单 remained at 101,500 tons. LU主力 was 3374, down 9; its position was 75,000 lots, up 1,000 lots; LU仓单 remained at 10,020 tons. The spread between FU10 - 1 was 36, down 5; LU11 - 12 was 8, down 1; LU - FU主力价差 was 572, down 25; FU01 - 外盘12 was 7.1, up 1.0; LU11 - 外盘10 was 8.7, down 1.4 [3]. Part 2: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: As of September 8, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah was 7.095 million barrels, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.546 million barrels [6]. - **Quotation Research and Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers. Pay attention to new high - sulfur warehouse receipts and inventory digestion, as well as low - sulfur quota adjustment and issuance [7]. - **Other Information**: FU仓单 and LU仓单 remained unchanged from the previous day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 0.6 to 0.4 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 2.3 to 2.0 dollars/ton [8]. Part 3: Related Attached Figures - The report provides six figures, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high in the near - term, with supply pressure in Q3 lower than expected. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining, but feedstock demand is still supported. New high - sulfur warehouse receipts generation and subsequent inventory digestion rhythm should be noted. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium is continuously decreasing, with supply rising and no specific downstream demand drivers. Attention should be paid to low - sulfur export trends, quota adjustment and issuance rhythm [7] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Relevant Data - FU main contract price on September 10, 2025, was 2786, up 20 from the previous day; its main contract position was 196,000 lots, down 4,000 lots; and its warehouse receipts were 101,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day. LU main contract price was 3383, down 2 from the previous day; its main contract position was 74,000 lots, up 2,000 lots; and its warehouse receipts were 10,020 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between LU and FU main contracts was 597, down 22 from the previous day [3] Part 2: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - IIR reported that the preliminary restart plan of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery has been postponed to December 10 [6] Market Research - High - sulfur: Supply pressure in Q3 is lower than expected due to factors such as attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, reduced high - sulfur exports from Mexico, and low - level exports from the Middle East. Seasonal power generation demand is falling, but feedstock demand is supported. Singapore's high - sulfur bunker fuel bunkering volume in July reached the highest level since IMO2020. Low - sulfur: Spot premium is continuously decreasing, supply is rising, and downstream demand lacks specific drivers. Attention should be paid to low - sulfur export trends and quota adjustment and issuance rhythm [7] Other Information - FU warehouse receipts were 101,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LU warehouse receipts were 10,020 tons, unchanged from the previous day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct monthly spread decreased from 1.2 to 0.6 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct monthly spread remained at 2.3 US dollars per ton [8] Part 3: Relevant Attached Figures - There are figures showing Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9]

Group 1: Related Data - FU main contract price on August 19, 2025, was 2686, down 27 from the previous day; LU main contract price was 3466, down 14 [3] - FU main contract positions were 95,000 lots, down 17,000 lots from the previous day; LU main contract positions were 44,000 lots, up 2,000 lots [3] - FU warehouse receipts were 80,710 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LU warehouse receipts were 11,110 tons, unchanged [3] - FU9 - 1 spread was -27, down 1; LU10 - 11 spread was 7, down 8; LU - FU main contract spread was 780, up 13 [3] - FU09 - foreign market 08 spread was -17.9, down 1.1; LU10 - foreign market 09 spread was 7.6, up 0.7 [3] - In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread decreased from 3.3 to 1.5 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread decreased from 2.0 to 1.0 USD/ton [8] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Overview - Debris from destroyed Ukrainian drones caused fires at an oil refinery and a hospital roof in the Volgograd region of Russia [6] Market Judgment - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain at a high level in the near term. Ukrainian bombings of Russian refineries continue, affecting some refinery capacities. Mexican high - sulfur exports are declining, and Middle - East high - sulfur exports are stable at a low level. High - sulfur supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected. High - sulfur seasonal power - generation demand is gradually decreasing, and the support from feedstock demand in China after the increase in the consumption - tax deduction ratio is not obvious. Singapore's high - sulfur bunker fuel bunkering volume in July reached the highest level since IMO2020 [7] - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums are continuously declining. The increase in spot - window sellers and near - term supply growth are hitting low - sulfur spot prices. Low - sulfur supply is continuously increasing, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Nigerian RFCC units have intermittent maintenance, and South - Sudan's low - sulfur raw - material supply is gradually returning to the early 2024 level. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level of normal refinery operation, with a significant increase in exports to Singapore. The low - sulfur market in China has sufficient supply and stable demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the number of refinery maintenance continues to decrease, the global fuel oil production has increased month - on - month. The export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has rapidly recovered, and the global high - sulfur supply will gradually shift to a loose pattern. However, the significant decrease in Brazil's export volume has provided some support for the global low - sulfur market [7]. - In the bunker market, the spread between Bunker and FOB has widened again. The decrease in fuel oil imports and increase in exports in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may indicate that the power generation demand is gradually coming to an end. In China, fuel oil demand remains low, and the overall processing and bunker demand is weak [7]. - The fuel oil prices around the world have generally declined this month. In the first half of the month, the low - sulfur prices performed relatively strongly, and the low - sulfur cracking in Singapore, Fujairah and other places maintained an upward trend. However, there were obvious signs of weakness in low - sulfur fuel oil in the second half of the month. The increase in supply - side pressure in the near - term has led to a rapid decline in the paper - cargo monthly spreads of fuel oil in various regions [7]. - As previously predicted, with the fading of the impact of geopolitical risk events in June, the trading logic of the fuel oil market has returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The increase in refinery operations has led to a gradual recovery in fuel oil production, and the increasing supply pressure is the core factor leading to the decline in prices, cracking spreads, and monthly spreads. August is the turning point between the off - season and peak season of refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere, which means that the seasonal demand benefits will continue to decline this month, further exerting downward pressure on fuel oil valuations [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the significant increase in Middle East exports is one of the biggest negative factors. Due to the abundance of spot goods, there were few transactions in the Platts window in August, and it is expected that the weakness of the spot market will continue to suppress prices. In addition to the Middle East, the large - scale maintenance of Russian refineries will end this month, and the export volume from Russia is expected to continue to rise at the end of the month. The entire high - sulfur market may gradually shift from supply - side looseness to a phase of oversupply [7]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although there has been no obvious increase in Brazil's exports, the export volumes of Kuwait and Indonesia are still rising, and the low - sulfur prices in the Asia - Pacific region have started to weaken month - on - month. In China, the production schedule of major refineries has continued to increase, and the bonded area has continued to accumulate inventory. The slow digestion of port spot goods has led to obvious weakness in the LU futures market. However, as the exports of major refineries increase, the remaining quota will gradually run out. Therefore, the quantity of the next batch of quotas will be a key focus in the future, which will determine the tightness of the deliverable resource supply for LU in the follow - up. Overall, it is believed that the cracking spreads and monthly spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil in August may continue to decline due to negative supply - side factors, and the weakness of low - sulfur fuel oil will also continue. Attention is recommended to the possibility of further narrowing of the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - **Price and Spread Fluctuations**: The FOB prices of fuel oil in various regions around the world generally declined this month. For example, the FOB price of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 2.29%, and the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil decreased by 3.40%. The cracking spreads also showed different trends, with the high - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions increasing (e.g., Singapore's high - sulfur cracking spread increased by 16.41%), while the low - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions decreased (e.g., Singapore's low - sulfur cracking spread decreased by 2.00%) [9]. - **Regional Price Charts**: Provided historical price charts of fuel oil in different regions such as Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, and the United States, including FOB and CIF prices of different sulfur - content fuel oils [13][19][26][33]. - **Feedstock Market Prices**: Presented the FOB and CIF prices of VGO in the European and American markets, such as the FOB price of 0.5% - 0.6% VGO in Northwest Europe and the CIF price of 0.5% VGO barge in the US Gulf [39][43]. - **Bunker Prices in Asia - Pacific Ports**: Showed the bunker prices of high - sulfur, low - sulfur heavy - fuel oil, and marine diesel in major Asia - Pacific ports, including Singapore, Fujairah, Zhoushan, South Korea, etc. [49][52][56]. - **Regional Arbitrage and Grade Spreads**: Analyzed the regional arbitrage margins and grade spreads of fuel oil, such as the high - and low - sulfur spread in Singapore, the viscosity spread, and the arbitrage margins between different regions (e.g., Middle East - Singapore, Mediterranean - Singapore) [60]. - **Spot Premiums and Discounts**: Displayed the spot premiums and discounts in Asia - Pacific and Middle East regions, such as the 380CST transaction premiums and discounts in Singapore and the Arabian Gulf [63]. - **Cracking Spreads in Major Markets**: Presented the cracking spreads of fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Europe, and the United States [70][77]. - **Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure**: Analyzed the term structure of the fuel oil swap market, including the spreads between different contract months in Singapore and Northwest Europe for high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [83]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - **Refinery Operations**: Showed the refinery operation rates in different regions around the world, including Northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, China), Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. For example, the refinery operation rate in Japan, South Korea, and the capacity utilization rates of independent and major refineries in China [91][99][102]. - **Refinery Maintenance**: Presented the maintenance situation of global major refining units, including CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units [104]. - **Production Changes in Main Producing Countries**: Displayed the production changes of fuel oil in main producing countries around the world, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Mexico, the United States, Brazil, and Russia [111][113][117]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand Situation - **Global Fuel Oil Demand Changes**: Showed the historical demand changes of fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, Asia - Pacific, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europe, North America, and Africa [121]. - **Singapore Bunker Market Sales**: Presented the sales volume of fuel oil in the Singapore bunker market, including the sales volume of high - sulfur, low - sulfur fuel oil, and marine diesel [134]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics Situation - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export**: Showed the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, the United States, Singapore + Malaysia, India, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean + Black Sea regions [143][146]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export**: Presented the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including Singapore + Malaysia, China, the United States, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East regions [149][152]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage Situation - **Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Showed the historical inventory data of fuel oil in major regions around the world, including Singapore, Fujairah, the European ARA region, and the United States. This month, the inventory in Singapore decreased by 0.16%, Fujairah increased by 0.87%, the European ARA region decreased by 3.73%, and the United States decreased by 1.69% [157][159]. - **Floating Storage in Singapore**: Presented the floating storage situation of fuel oil in the Singapore region [164]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption Situation - **Domestic Production and Supply**: Showed the monthly production volume of fuel oil in China, the capacity utilization rate of catalytic units in Shandong refineries, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil [169][170][173]. - **Bonded Port Supply, Consumption, and Inventory**: Presented the total inventory of bonded - area fuel oil, the monthly production volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from Chinese refineries, the port inventories of Dalian, Qingdao, and Zhoushan ports, and the monthly actual consumption volume of marine fuel oil in China [174][175].

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures experienced a decline, with the main contract trading at 2820.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.23% [1] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose by 969,000 barrels to reach 24.668 million barrels, marking a three-week high as of the week ending July 30 [2] - An estimated 3 million tons of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, with more shipments anticipated in the coming weeks [2] Group 2 - The influx of fuel oil into Asia has led to a sufficient supply in the market, causing spot prices to widen [3] - OPEC announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a significant shift from a previous reduction strategy [3] - Weak economic data from the U.S. and concerns over demand have negatively impacted the market, leading to a substantial decline in international oil prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil showed a volatile trend, and fuel oil prices mainly followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 1.82% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,571 yuan/ton, down 1.16% for the week [5]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken due to sufficient immediate supply. Although the arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore remained closed, a large amount of low - sulfur blending components continued to flow into the Singapore market. Traders were worried about potential inventory accumulation due to short - term oversupply in Singapore [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, sufficient immediate supply and expected increase in arbitrage cargoes continued to suppress the market fundamentals. Weak power generation demand in South Asia this summer hit market sentiment, and traders were concerned that the decline in summer power generation demand might exacerbate the oversupply situation in the coming weeks [5]. - Subsequently, crude oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but fuel oil prices will still face pressure. The suggested operation is to trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,780 - 2,950 yuan/ton range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,500 - 3,650 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 1.82% for the week; low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,571 yuan/ton, down 1.16% for the week. The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil weakened due to sufficient supply, and high - sulfur fuel oil faced pressure from supply and weak power generation demand in South Asia. Suggested trading ranges are 2,780 - 2,950 yuan/ton for high - sulfur and 3,500 - 3,650 yuan/ton for low - sulfur [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract futures price increased from 2,904 to 2,918, up 0.48%. The LU main contract futures price increased from 3,578 to 3,644, up 1.83% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 518.00 to 511.00, down 1.35%, and the price of Singapore diesel increased from 673.24 to 678.02, up 0.71% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Graphs showed the consumption trends of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margin from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: The inventory data from May 14 to July 30 showed fluctuations. For example, on May 14, the inventory was 2,490.9 million barrels with an increase of 78 million barrels, and on July 30, it was 2,027.9 million barrels with an increase of 37 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Spread Data - The graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread showed the relationship between FU and LU [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the third quarter, the supply pressure is slightly less than expected. The demand for feedstock is favorable due to the peak season of refined oil and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. The seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, and attention should be paid to the import logistics changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [5][63]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the downstream demand has no specific driving force. The spot premium fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the export logistics changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in the near term, the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [63]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: In July, it was suppressed by high near - term supply and inventory. The spot premium and cracking in Singapore fluctuated at low levels. The demand for power generation in the Middle East and Egypt decreased, while the feedstock demand in China began to pick up slightly after the tax reform. The market expected an increase in high - sulfur heavy raw materials [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It maintained a weak oscillating market in July. The low - sulfur cracking followed the gasoline cracking and continued to decline. The short - and medium - term supply was abundant with an expected increase. The demand had no specific positive drivers, and shipping demand was affected by macro - tariff and geopolitical issues [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. The demand for feedstock is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the power - generation demand and import logistics in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the downstream demand remains weak [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near term and wait and see. - Options: None [6][63]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Similar to the previous review, it was affected by supply and demand factors, with the spot premium and cracking in Singapore declining [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintained a weak oscillation. The short - and medium - term supply was abundant, and the demand was affected by macro and geopolitical issues [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil: - Russia: The refinery offline capacity was increased twice in July, and the export was at a very low level in the same period. The sanctions from Europe and the United States were gradually intensified [19][20]. - Mexico: The high - sulfur supply decreased significantly, and the Olmeca refinery's secondary device was gradually put into operation [23]. - Middle East: The high - sulfur export was stable at a low level, and the export to the pan - Singapore region decreased significantly [27]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials has recovered stably, and the 8 - month loading tenders have increased compared with July [43][44]. - Middle East Al - Zour Refinery: The low - sulfur export is expected to remain at a stable high level, and the supply to the pan - Singapore region has increased month - on - month [46]. - Nigeria Dangote Refinery: The RFCC device is still unstable in operation, and low - sulfur export tenders are continuously issued [49]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil: - Marine fuel demand: It is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships with desulfurization towers [33]. - Feedstock demand: The increase in the domestic consumption tax deduction ratio supports the subsequent feedstock demand, and the import is expected to recover stably [36]. - Power - generation demand: The power - generation demand in Egypt remains high, and the demand in the Middle East is expected to be strong in July and then decline gradually [39][40]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: - Marine fuel demand: It is stable, and the low - sulfur fuel oil loading in Singapore and other places has certain fluctuations [52]. - Domestic production and demand: The domestic bonded low - sulfur production is stable, and attention should be paid to the quota conversion news [53]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided in the report. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected, and the demand for feedstock is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the import logistics in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the demand has no specific drivers. Attention should be paid to the export logistics and quota adjustment [63]. - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near term and wait and see. - Options: None [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic high-sulfur spot is abundant in the near term, with the near-month internal and external price difference oscillating at a low level below zero. Asian high-sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the spot premium in Singapore continues to oscillate at a low level. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. Demand is supported by the peak season of refined oil, the decline in high-sulfur cracking, and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. Seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil oscillates. Supply continues to recover, but there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low-sulfur quotas in the near term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - High-sulfur: Domestic supply is abundant, Asian supply is high, and demand is supported by multiple factors. Seasonal power generation demand is decreasing [3]. - Low-sulfur: Supply is increasing, demand lacks drivers, and attention should be paid to quota adjustments [3]. - **Strategies** - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro disturbances [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to the digestion of near-term high-sulfur spot and the adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [4]. - Options: No specific view [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - Russia: High-sulfur exports increased slightly in July. Refinery offline capacity increased due to maintenance and domestic demand. Sanctions from the EU and the US continue [6]. - Mexico: High-sulfur supply decreased significantly. Olmeca's secondary device was put into operation, and the processing volume of some refineries decreased. High-sulfur exports remained at a low level [9]. - Middle East: High-sulfur exports were stable at a low level. The impact of the Iraq oil field attack on supply was limited. Sanctions on Iran continued. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply [14]. - South Sudan: Low-sulfur heavy raw material supply recovered stably, and the number of export tenders in August increased compared to July [24]. - Al-Zour Refinery: Low-sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and exports to the pan-Singapore region increased [27]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of Dangote Refinery is still unstable, and low-sulfur export tenders continue to be issued [28]. - **Demand Side** - High-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships. Power generation demand is expected to gradually subside in August and September. China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is expected to increase, which will support feedstock demand [15][18][23]. - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but there is no specific driver [31]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads are presented in various charts, including the relationship between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil and Brent crude oil, as well as cross-regional and cross-period spreads [39][40][43]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are provided, along with the inventory structure of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [66][74][76]. - **Terminal Sales** - In June, Singapore's ship fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. The proportion of high-sulfur and low-sulfur ship fuel bunkering changed [79].

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3001.00 yuan and closing at 2984.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.95% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to experience a short-term rebound due to increased demand from power generation and refining, despite mid-term supply pressures [2] - The supply of fuel oil remains ample, with Middle Eastern loading volumes unaffected by regional conflicts, leading to a cautious outlook on price stabilization [3] - The cost of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak in the short term, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices are anticipated to maintain a stable range [4] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Futures recommends shorting high-sulfur crack spreads at elevated prices [5] - Southwest Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, indicating a cautious stance in the current market [5]