Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: The near-month crack and monthly spread increased week-on-week, but the spot premium was suppressed below zero. Short-term supply is affected by the unclear Russia-Ukraine situation and refinery maintenance, while demand is boosted by seasonal power generation needs. [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium fluctuated, with supply rising and downstream demand remaining weak. The supply of raw materials from South Sudan is gradually recovering, and exports from some refineries are increasing. [3] - Trading strategies: Adopt a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading. Take profit on the FU 9-1 calendar spread long position and enter a short position on the LU 7-8 calendar spread at high levels. No options strategy is recommended. [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive analysis**: High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by supply uncertainties and increasing demand. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces rising supply and weak demand. [3] - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - FU 9-1 long take profit, LU 7-8 short entry; Options - none. [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Supply factors**: - Russia: Sanctions and refinery maintenance limit high-sulfur exports. May exports from the Black Sea port are expected to decline. [5] - Mexico: Olmeca refinery's production has increased, and overall exports are expected to remain stable. [8] - Middle East: Sanctions on Iran continue, and power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may reduce exports. [11] - **Demand factors**: - High-sulfur: Power generation demand in Egypt, South Asia, and the Middle East is increasing. [16] - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but the implementation of the European ECA policy may reduce demand. [33] - **China's market**: The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is stable, and the early issuance of quotas has little impact on the supply-demand balance. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: Includes fuel oil spot prices, cross-regional and cross-period spreads, and natural gas-fuel oil price ratios. [38][44][53] - **Inventory data**: Inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujeirah, the US, and Japan are presented, showing overall declines in recent weeks. [60] - **Terminal sales data**: Singapore's ship fuel sales in April showed a slight decline, with high-sulfur sales increasing and low-sulfur sales decreasing slightly. [68]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - end high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore. However, there is still a medium - term supply gap due to geopolitical and sanctions affecting exports from Russia and the Middle East. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is starting to increase [7]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices are fluctuating. Supply is continuously rising while downstream demand is weak. The return of external low - sulfur raw material supply and increased production in some regions are contributing to the supply increase [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Prices and Changes**: On May 12, 2025, the FU main contract was at 2996, up 47 from May 9; the LU main contract was at 3518, up 46 from May 9. The LU - FU main contract spread was 522, down 1 from May 9 [4]. - **Positions and Changes**: FU main contract positions were 14.3 million hands, down 0.6 million hands from May 9; LU main contract positions were 6.4 million hands, down 0.2 million hands from May 9 [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Changes**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 44,390 tons, down 6730 tons from May 9; LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 26,270 tons, down 15,980 tons from May 9 [4][7]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Important News**: The RFCC of Dangote Refinery has restarted, and BP Rotterdam Refinery plans to shut down one of its two CDU units for maintenance in May. Intermittent supply may increase price fluctuations, and the success of Dangote's production increase will affect the EBOB spread in Q3 2025 [6]. - **Market Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant in the short - term but has a medium - term gap. Demand for power generation is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is rising while demand is weak, and the return of external supply and increased production in some regions are factors [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report includes six graphs showing data such as Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price differentials, and fuel oil cracking spreads. The data sources are Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9].

大越期货：预计燃料油价格继续随势震荡 由于本周下游船燃需求相对稳定，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，而贸易商预计5月东 西方套利到货量减少将在短期内支撑市场基本面。贸易商表示，尽管新加坡整体库存水平较高，但符合 规格的现货供应有限，预计短期内市场将延续温和上行趋势。高硫方面，高硫燃料油市场目前受益于中 东夏季发电需求改善预期的支撑，不过贸易商指出，下游船燃需求疲软及原料采购需求低迷仍将持续施 压高硫市场。新加坡现货市场仍有大量高硫燃料油船货待售，且来自中东货源将在4月底陆续抵达，不 过5月到港量或将减少。原油价格或呈现震荡的态势，预计燃料油价格继续随势震荡。操作上：高硫短 线2900-31050区间操作，低硫短线3350-3550区间操作。 西南期货：燃料油走势料震荡偏强 第二季度末亚洲高硫燃料油市场通常会进入季节性需求旺季，因为中东地区的发电需求达到高峰。超低 硫燃料油市场稳中坚挺，因为供应和需求基本面趋于平衡，市场商家关注来自亚洲外的供应。亚洲地区 的低硫燃料油供应有限，因为炼油厂检修以及炼油利润不佳产量减少。韩国的部分炼油商正考虑购买船 用燃料油。中石油公司装运了13万吨4月初从巴西装船的含硫 ...