证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 金融工程日报 两市分化沪指震荡上行，白酒股午后掀涨停潮 市场表现：20260129 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综 指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。食品饮料、传媒、房 地产、非银、石油石化行业表现较好，电子、国防军工、机械、电新、汽车 行业表现较差。白酒、黄酒、房地产精选、小红书平台、黄金精选等概念表 现较好，MLCC、长江存储、液态金属、中芯国际产业链、珠宝等概念表现 较差。 市场情绪：20260129 收盘时有 88 只股票涨停，有 36 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日收盘收益为 3.03%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-2.93%。今日 封板率 64%，较前日下降 7%，连板率 24%，较前日提升 5%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260128 两融余额为 27426 亿元，其中融资余额 27253 亿元，融券余额 174 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.9%。 折溢价：20260128 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是黄金股票 ETF 基金，ETF 折价 较多的是科技龙头 ETF 汇 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a significant rally at the beginning of trading, with notable increases in stock prices [1] - Yiyaton saw a rise of over 3%, while Kweichow Moutai increased by more than 2% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Yingjia Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, also followed suit with price increases [1]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" strategy is constructed based on a dual-layer selection process that combines fundamental and technical analysis. The initial stock pool is built using analyst recommendation events, such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. From this pool, stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state [14][16] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is constructed to identify stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high and exhibit stable price paths. The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate a decline from the peak. Stocks are further filtered based on analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past six months), relative strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price stability (evaluated using price path smoothness and 250-day new high distance averages over 120 days), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past five days). The top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria [23][24] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" show an annualized return of 19.11%, an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73% over the entire sample period. The information ratio (IR) is 1.22, with a tracking error of 14.55% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.78 [20] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks primarily in the cyclical sector (9 stocks), followed by financials (4 stocks), technology (3 stocks), manufacturing (3 stocks), and consumer sectors (3 stocks) during the recent period. Specific stocks include Global New Material International and others [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened higher with all three major indices showing positive gains, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.26% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 1.01% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept, lithium mining, and CPO concepts showed strong performance [1] - Sectors such as short drama games, liquor, and retail experienced the largest declines [1]

Group 1 - The liquor concept sector rose by 1.26%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 37 stocks increasing in value, including Zhongrui Co., Junyao Health, and Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit [1] - Leading stocks in the liquor sector included Jinzongzi Liquor, Wewei Co., and Tianhong Co., which increased by 4.11%, 3.50%, and 3.04% respectively [1] - The stocks with the largest declines were *ST Yanshi, Litong Technology, and Baiyunshan, which fell by 5.05%, 3.19%, and 1.31% respectively [1] Group 2 - The liquor concept sector saw a net inflow of 454 million yuan from main funds, with 31 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] - Huangtai Liquor led the net inflow with 140 million yuan, followed by Junyao Health, Zhongrui Co., and Baiyunshan with net inflows of 80.79 million yuan, 68.83 million yuan, and 60.82 million yuan respectively [2] - The net inflow ratios for Junyao Health, Huangtai Liquor, and Zhongrui Co. were 48.31%, 45.62%, and 17.11% respectively [3] Group 3 - The top stocks in the liquor sector based on net inflow included Huangtai Liquor with a daily increase of 10.02% and a turnover rate of 12.88%, and Junyao Health with a daily increase of 10.04% and a turnover rate of 3.60% [3] - Other notable stocks included Zhongrui Co. with a daily increase of 10.08% and a turnover rate of 9.33%, while Baiyunshan experienced a decline of 1.31% [3][4] - The overall performance of the liquor sector was supported by significant trading activity, with various stocks showing positive momentum [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.55% and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 1.1% [1][2] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.77%, indicating a bearish trend across the board [1][2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.77 trillion, a decrease of 318.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][6] Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in the liquor and dairy industries, as well as retail [2][3] - Notable stocks included Zhongrui Co., which achieved two consecutive trading limits, and companies like Huangshi Group and Sunshine Dairy, which hit the daily limit [2] - The insurance sector also performed well, with China Ping An rising nearly 5%, reaching a four-year high [2] - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with companies like Hualing Cable and Zhongchao Holdings achieving three consecutive trading limits [2] - Conversely, the film and cinema sector saw declines, with Bona Film Group hitting the daily limit down [3] Market Sentiment - Overall, more than 2,900 stocks declined, indicating a broad market downturn [2][4] - The market heat index was reported at 39, suggesting a relatively low level of market enthusiasm [5]

Market Performance - The three major indices maintained a weak fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.77% [1] - Approximately 2,900 stocks in the market declined, with a total trading volume of about 1.8 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Insurance stocks showed strength, with China Ping An rising nearly 5% [1] - Retail concept stocks experienced a surge, with multiple stocks such as Dongbai Group, Guangbai Co., and Hongqi Chain hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace concept was active, with stocks like Sanwei Communication and Taigang Stainless Steel also hitting the daily limit [1] - Sectors such as liquor, gold, chemical fiber, building materials, and steel saw significant gains, while sectors like CPO, chips, semiconductors, media entertainment, and pharmaceuticals faced declines [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rebounded during the session, with a peak of positive territory, while the ChiNext Index fell over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.18 trillion, a decrease of 52.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 2,700 stocks in the market saw an increase [1] Sector Performance - The insurance sector experienced significant gains, with China Ping An rising nearly 5%, reaching a four-year high [3] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, a large number of fixed deposits will mature next year, making dividend insurance attractive for low-risk investors seeking long-term wealth preservation and growth [3] - The report anticipates double-digit growth in new single premium and new business value (NBV) for the insurance sector, supported by the trend of large companies increasing market share [3] - Ping An Securities forecasts that by 2026, the investment return rate and net profit of insurance companies are expected to remain relatively stable, supported by a favorable liquidity environment [3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed strength, particularly in the dairy industry, with Sunshine Dairy hitting the daily limit [3] - The liquor sector was also active, with Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit [3] - Retail stocks performed strongly, with Baida Group achieving three consecutive trading limits [3] Declining Sectors - The computing hardware sector saw a collective decline, with Changfei Optical Fiber hitting the daily limit down [3] - Sectors such as computing hardware and film and television box offices experienced the largest declines [3] Closing Summary - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.29% [3]

Market Overview - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,202.52, down by 0.42% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,884.24, down by 0.13% [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased to 3,164.09, down by 0.95% [1] - Sectors such as liquor, controllable nuclear fusion, food and beverage, and engineering machinery showed gains, while sectors like CPO, lithium mining, chips, non-ferrous metals, and real estate experienced declines [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index opened significantly lower at 25,751.99, down by 224.80 points or 0.87% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also saw a decline, closing at 5,541.71, down by 96.34 points or 1.71% [2] - Major stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou experienced varying degrees of decline, while gold stocks such as Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold saw increases of nearly 6% and 5% respectively [1] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace concept stocks showed strength, with Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit and recording an increase of 7.08% after previously achieving eight consecutive trading days of gains [3][7] - Other stocks like Zhongchao Holdings and Hualing Cable also experienced consecutive gains [3] Retail Sector - The retail sector saw a sharp rise, with Baida Group hitting the daily limit and achieving three consecutive trading days of gains [7] - Other retail stocks such as Maoye Commercial and Dongbai Group also experienced upward movement [7] Policy and Financial Support - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption [9] - The notice emphasizes increasing financial support in key consumption areas and encourages financial institutions to optimize product services [9] Controllable Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks surged, with companies like Xue Ren Group and Hualing Cable achieving consecutive gains [10] - Analysis indicates that key materials and components for nuclear fusion devices are expected to drive growth for upstream material and midstream processing companies [12] - Xue Ren Group announced that its stock price had deviated significantly, but confirmed that there were no undisclosed major information affecting its operations [12]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower on December 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.16% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included liquor concepts, controllable nuclear fusion concepts, food and beverage, and engineering machinery, which saw significant gains [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included CPO concepts, lithium mining concepts, chip concepts, non-ferrous metals, and real estate [1]