Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, short - term soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line due to good weather in the US and sufficient supply in South America. In the North American season, low carry - over stocks and high planting costs will support the price. For soybean meal, high livestock and poultry inventories support demand, and the price is expected to be strong during the de - stocking period [6][93]. - For oils, although there are short - term factors leading to a decline in market sentiment, the fundamentals still support the price. It is expected that the price will experience a limited decline in the short term and then have an upward momentum [93]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Performance - As of July 18, the spot price in East China was 2,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - Brazil's 2024/25 production reached 169 million tons, and China's imports in August are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The domestic oil mill operating rate has risen above 60%, and soybean meal inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, the carry - over stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season are slightly increased, but the supply - demand structure is tightening [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the breeding profit in China has improved, and the high inventories of pigs and poultry support the demand for feed. The proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula has increased year - on - year, and the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,141 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 990 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal is around 2,750 - 2,820 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Strategy - For the M2509 contract, be cautious about long positions in the short term and pay attention to the support at around 2,980 yuan/ton. For the M2511 and M2601 contracts, go long at low prices in the long term [6]. 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Performance - As of the week of July 25, the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 8,936 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 8,144 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 yuan/ton to 9,457 yuan/ton [93][95]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Shipping data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 decreased by 9.23 - 15.22% compared with the previous month, while the production increased by 6.19 - 11.24% from July 1 - 20. The inventory in Indonesia is in a tight balance, and the price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise after a short - term decline [93]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The high - temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will ease in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans. The EPA's RVO2 draft boosts the demand for biodiesel, and the short - term decline of US soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase in the short term, but the supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [93]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The rainfall in Canada has improved the growth of rapeseed, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The possibility of China restarting the import of Australian rapeseed needs attention [93]. 2.5 Strategy - In the short term, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,800 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Adopt the strategy of going long on dips [93].

Core Insights - The domestic soybean meal market is experiencing a stabilization in prices, with the spot price on June 3 reported at 2929.14 CNY/ton, slightly lower than the futures price of 2935.00 CNY/ton, indicating a discount of 5.86 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market for soybean meal saw a closing price of 2935.00 CNY/ton on June 3, reflecting a decline of 1.05%, with a trading volume of 1,140,522 contracts [2] - The inventory days for domestic feed enterprises have increased to 5.99 days, up by 0.25 days (4.23%) compared to the previous week, but down 12.19% year-on-year [2] Market Analysis - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research, the soybean meal market is facing pressure due to increased supply from accelerated imports of soybeans and higher operating rates at oil mills, leading to a gradual rise in soybean meal inventory [4] - The demand side remains cautious, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs, resulting in a weak basis for spot prices and a lack of upward momentum in soybean meal prices [4] - The market outlook suggests continued fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with potential downward trends unless driven by significant changes in demand or weather conditions [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current market for soybean meal is experiencing fluctuations due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with significant implications for pricing and trading strategies in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On May 26, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 79,600 tons [1]. - As of May 23, the inventory of imported soybeans in major oil mills was 6.17 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 290,000 tons, but a month-on-month increase of 1.12 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 850,000 tons, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [1]. - The soybean meal inventory in major oil mills stood at 210,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 560,000 tons, indicating a historically low level for this time of year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that Brazil is currently in a concentrated export phase for soybeans, while the U.S. is in the soybean planting stage, with a planting rate of 66% as of the week ending May 18, compared to 50% last year and a five-year average of 53% [2]. - The record high yield of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year has led to expectations of increased imports in May, although delays in customs have hindered April's arrivals [2]. - Concerns over reduced soybean yields in Argentina due to heavy rainfall have led to slight rebounds in both domestic and international markets, although the overall impact remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Zhengxin Futures indicates that the short-term cost pressures remain, with a generally loose supply of soybean meal domestically and sufficient soybean supply expected from May to July, as oil mills return to normal operating levels [3]. - In the medium to long term, a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is becoming more certain, which supports bullish sentiment for soybean meal in the distant months [3]. - The ongoing developments in U.S.-China tariffs may also provide bullish factors for U.S. soybeans in the long term, suggesting a strategy of buying soybean meal on dips within the price range of 2,900 to 3,000 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of oils remains, and the rebound of futures prices is limited. The supply of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the price is oscillating downward [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal: Supply Gradually Improving, Price Oscillating Downward - **Futures and Spot End**: As of April 25, the spot price in East China reached 3,800 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton weekly. The spot basis strengthened significantly, with the basis in North China soaring from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 1,000 yuan/ton. The futures prices of M2505 and M2509 did not show strong upward trends due to delivery logic and expected increases in arrivals and operation rates later [7]. - **Supply End**: The April USDA soybean supply - demand report showed that the US soybean yield remained at 50.7 cents/bushel, and the ending stocks were lowered to 375 million bushels. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 83.5 million acres, with a downward trend in production. In South America, Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, putting pressure on prices, while Argentina's production forecast remains at 49 million tons. In China, the supply - demand situation tightened recently due to oil mills' soybean shortages, but the arrival pressure from May to July is high, and the supply will gradually become loose. After September, domestic soybeans will enter a destocking cycle [7]. - **Demand End**: In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. The demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. However, the market is bearish on future prices, and the purchasing sentiment is poor. As of April 18, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased to 4.2591 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly to 125,500 tons [7]. - **Cost End**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and that of new - crop Brazil soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal before March 2025 is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the cost during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2,730 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is at a high level in the same period of history, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the supply - demand tension in some regions remains, and the price decline is limited before the supply pressure arrives. From May to July, as arrivals increase, the price will gradually decline with the accumulation of soybean and soybean meal inventories. The 09 contract is under short - term pressure from arrivals but may be bullish in the long - term due to weather disturbances and tariff - induced increases in import costs [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go short on the M2509 contract when the price is high, paying attention to the resistance around 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton. In the long - term, go long on the 09 contract when the price is low, paying attention to the support around 2,900 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Oils: Supply Pressure Remains, Futures Price Rebound Limited - **Futures and Spot End**: As of the week of April 25, the main 09 contract of palm oil rose 244 yuan/ton to 8,376 yuan/ton, the main 09 contract of soybean oil rose 230 yuan/ton to 7,934 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of rapeseed oil rose 285 yuan/ton to 9,506 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, while the basis of palm oil decreased, and the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased [81][83]. - **Palm Oil**: In April, the production in Malaysia increased. The international soybean - palm oil price spread turned positive, stimulating imports from China and India. The export volume from April 1 - 25 increased. The inventory increase in Malaysia in April may be small. In China, the import volume in April is expected to be less than 100,000 tons, and the consumption is also low, keeping the inventory below 400,000 tons. However, from May, the arrivals will increase, and the price may decline from May to July [81]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 season, Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 90%, and the export volume may exceed 100 million tons. Argentina has also started harvesting. However, the potential increase in the US biodiesel blending standard is beneficial for future soybean demand. The expected decrease in the 25/26 US soybean planting area and planting disruptions support the soybean price. In China, although the soybean arrivals have increased, strict customs inspections have led to shortages in some oil mills before early May. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased to 650,000 tons, but it will accumulate again from May to July. In the long - term, the price may first decline and then rise from July to September [81]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is not affected by US - Canada tariffs, and the demand for crushing and export is strong. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and there may be drought problems in the 25/26 planting season. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 830,000 tons, and the supply pressure in April is large. There are rumors of increased imports of Australian rapeseed, which may slightly ease the future supply shortage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [81]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the three major oils in China have upward momentum due to various factors, but the supply improvement is expected, and the price rebound is limited. In the long - term, the price of soybean and palm oil may decline in the second quarter and then rise due to concerns about the US new - crop soybean planting area and potential weather speculation [81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing up the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 7,800 - 8,000, 8,500, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Wait for the price to decline in the second quarter before going long. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong [81].